Break up of the ACC

[exCyDing]

If they really wanted to dissolve it/other conferences want them to dissolve it… they aren’t going to have loose lips and tell everyone the plan. There would have to be a whole lot of back room dealings, secrets, winks and nods to pull it off.

But yeah odds are something somewhere gets leaked in this day and age. Especially with that many schools, conferences, and media companies involved.

Texas and Oklahoma still had a vote in the Big12, until just the few days-week(?) before it was officially announced they applied to the SEC for membership.

They’d still have a vote for things except the vote to dissolve. Just like OUT.

OUT managed to negotiate 1 year of the GOR for for $50m each. Do those numbers for each of the schools the B10 or SEC would take over the next 12 years. Then factor in the ACC leftovers aren’t going to be in arguably the #3 conference and might not even be in a power conference. Then factor in that a few schools are likely going to be left out of the power conference structure if the ACC dissolved with no route or likelihood of making it back. Then factor in they have what seems to be an iron-clad agreement through 2035 and absolutely no reason to even consider negotiating.

Where does that kind of money come from? Where is the ROI on it?

Edit: just wanted to add, I do think it’s likely the ACC’s GOR will be broken. I just think it won’t happen for another ~10 years. The B10 re-ups in 2032, the SEC in 2034 (if memory serves). Those seem like the natural break points for something to happen.

 

[CoKane]

I think they go Big10. They’re pretty good academically.

UVA is probably the most perfect Big 10 fit out there

 

[heitclone]

Not sure what you mean by this? Once the ACC firesale starts, it's not like the SEC can start poaching but everyone else has to wait.

I think ESPN will manipulate things behind the scenes to get what they want. Their biggest investment is the SEC so they'll get dibs or the league won't split until the gor is up. The big ten will either wait for the gor or for ESPN to get the brands they want in to sec. I don't think this hurts the big ten, there isn't much crossover in schools each league would want.

 

[surly]

This whole matter is just sad. I get no glee from seeing these discussions other than how they might strengthen ours.

I want to play NC State about as much as seeing Frank Martin's UMass. So many schools are going to be left in the lurch: Oregon State, Washington State, who knows?

Soon, the NCAA will be replaced by some sort of mega conference organization and the student-athlete will become a semi-pro, as if that's not already the case for many.

 

[Gonzo]

I think ESPN will manipulate things behind the scenes to get what they want. Their biggest investment is the SEC so they'll get dibs or the league won't split until the gor is up. The big ten will either wait for the gor or for ESPN to get the brands they want in to sec. I don't think this hurts the big ten, there isn't much crossover in schools each league would want.

I guess I don't see how that would be possible. Once the GoR is null and void and the path is cleared for Clemson or Miami to jump to the SEC, I don't see how ESPN would be able to tell other schools they can't jump to the B1G. I do agree that there's not much crossover in who each conference would want so it doesn't really matter in the end.

 

[ClonerJams]

Everyone has FSU to SEC and that makes sense. Leaving Miami to Big10?

I have doubts Miami is a good cultural fit for the Big10. And its not an AAU school. So if the Big10 wants a Florida school, why not pursue FSU? Also not an AAU school.

That leaves Miami for the SEC. And the SEC will have a school in North and South Florida.

Miami is an excellent academic school. AAU isn't everything; Notre Dame isn't AAU either but they're also an elite academic school.

 

[shadow]

Who in the ACC is most at risk? Wake forest? Boston college? Syracuse? I think this discussion is premature but I'm curious about folks who might be nervous. Also how big can a conference really go? Seems like 16 is the magic number.

 

[Cloneon]

This whole matter is just sad. I get know glee from seeing these discussions other than how they might strengthen ours.

I want to play NC State about as much as seeing Frank Martin's UMass. So many schools are going to be left in the lurch: Oregon State, Washington State, who knows?

Soon, the NCAA will be replaced by some sort of mega conference organization and the student-athlete will become a semi-pro, as if that's not already the case for many.

Just my opinion...
There are so many factors in evaluating the talents of 'pre-NFL' athletes; MANY of which don't hit their targets. To suggest colleges will do better is somewhat of a mystery to me.
Some really resourceful person will be able to chart NIL earnings and correlate them to not only college success, but also to the transition into the NFL. I see NIL having a completely different landscape in 10 years, if it survives (eg employee salaries, performance based branding contracts, IRS/SEC intervention, etc). LSU's coaches recent remarks suggesting NIL is the differentiating factor in the haves and have nots, to me, is hot air marketing. I'm still waiting for A&M to haul in that national championship based on their recent recruiting accomplishments. NIL advertising in colleges is like vapor-ware in software; it's more advertising than impact … at this juncture. And fear of not being able to keep up is driving the growth in NIL; more than the positive results of it. Time will tell.

 

[exCyDing]

Who in the ACC is most at risk? Wake forest? Boston college? Syracuse? I think this discussion is premature but I'm curious about folks who might be nervous. Also how big can a conference really go? Seems like 16 is the magic number.

I think they first question is how big do conferences go? If the SEC and Big 10 go to 24, does the B12 follow suit? From there, you start to slot schools in and see who’s left.

I think NC and UVA would prefer the B10. I can’t see FSU and Miami not being on both schools lists. If everything goes down sooner rather than later, Clemson seems like an SEC fit, but might not be if it happens later and they can’t maintain their recent success.

20 seems like the target for both. I think getting to 24 requires some reaches that don’t maintain the conferences valuation. This would also explain why the B10 hasn’t invited WAOR yet - I’m not sure they ever get the call.

 

[helechopper]

Swaim is now MHver3 with a salary.

 

[isucy86]

Miami is an excellent academic school. AAU isn't everything; Notre Dame isn't AAU either but they're also an elite academic school.

My comment about culture was more about Miami's historical flamboyant style and in last couple years their aggressive use of NIL "pay for play" to attract athletes. They just seem like a school that is always willing to stretch the rules in order to succeed.

Agree AAU isn't everything, in fact it is being overblown by Pac12 folks. There are other was to measure academic prestige than AAU. Generic rankings, R1 research status, etc

I made the AAU comment to indicate that Florida State is no different from Miami in that regard. US News ranks both Miami and FSU at 55th nationally, so academically similar. As you also point out, Notre Dame isn't AAU, but an excellent university.

 

[2speedy1]

If they really wanted to dissolve it/other conferences want them to dissolve it… they aren’t going to have loose lips and tell everyone the plan. There would have to be a whole lot of back room dealings, secrets, winks and nods to pull it off.

But yeah odds are something somewhere gets leaked in this day and age. Especially with that many schools, conferences, and media companies involved.

Texas and Oklahoma still had a vote in the Big12, until just the few days-week(?) before it was officially announced they applied to the SEC for membership.

If OuT happened a few days after a major vote, with which their votes were a deciding factor, I believe the other members left would have voided that vote and revoted removing their votes.

I would assume that if there was a vote to dissolve the same would hold true, probably. The other issue would be some serious legal issues if several schools, and outside conferences, plus media partners worked together to destroy a conference.

The conference would have some serious legal claims. And I would guess any vote to dissolve would have serious challenges, when it was found that the schools and partners worked together to make it happen.

 

[2speedy1]

Edit: just wanted to add, I do think it’s likely the ACC’s GOR will be broken. I just think it won’t happen for another ~10 years. The B10 re-ups in 2032, the SEC in 2034 (if memory serves). Those seem like the natural break points for something to happen.

Yes exactly, breaking/buying out of, a GoR with a couple years left, is much different than one with 13 years left.

Look at how much OuT is paying for 1 year...now multiply that by 13, Dont think anyone has that kind of money laying around unused. Outside of paying that much they would look at years of legal battles due to the extreme amount of money on the table.

 

[2speedy1]

I think ESPN will manipulate things behind the scenes to get what they want. Their biggest investment is the SEC so they'll get dibs or the league won't split until the gor is up. The big ten will either wait for the gor or for ESPN to get the brands they want in to sec. I don't think this hurts the big ten, there isn't much crossover in schools each league would want.

One thing you fail to consider. ESPN still has a contract with the ACC. They cant just do whatever they want to benefit the SEC and not honor the ACC contract. ESPN has to honor its contracts. If they worked with another partner to get out of their ACC contract or to dissolve or get teams out of that contract/conference to benefit another, it would be back to that tortious interference we all know about. ESPN would have to be very very careful as to what they do to in such a case that would not open them up to a huge lawsuit.

Same goes for the conference/schools working together to get out of the GoR and media deal they have with ESPN. They would open themselves up to similar challenges.

 

[surly]

Just my opinion...
There are so many factors in evaluating the talents of 'pre-NFL' athletes; MANY of which don't hit their targets. To suggest colleges will do better is somewhat of a mystery to me.
Some really resourceful person will be able to chart NIL earnings and correlate them to not only college success, but also to the transition into the NFL. I see NIL having a completely different landscape in 10 years, if it survives (eg employee salaries, performance based branding contracts, IRS/SEC intervention, etc). LSU's coaches recent remarks suggesting NIL is the differentiating factor in the haves and have nots, to me, is hot air marketing. I'm still waiting for A&M to haul in that national championship based on their recent recruiting accomplishments. NIL advertising in colleges is like vapor-ware in software; it's more advertising than impact … at this juncture. And fear of not being able to keep up is driving the growth in NIL; more than the positive results of it. Time will tell.

I have always been a fan of NIL. The problem is regulating it, or rather not. Athletes should be free to monetize their name, image and likeness. The regulation part goes wanting because there's no central authority or mission. The NCAA is worthless in this role.

 

[GoldCy]

I wish people would start using PFP instead. That's what it is. The only difference in pro's and NCAA is there are rules for pro leagues.

 

[isucy86]

One thing you fail to consider. ESPN still has a contract with the ACC. They cant just do whatever they want to benefit the SEC and not honor the ACC contract. ESPN has to honor its contracts. If they worked with another partner to get out of their ACC contract or to dissolve or get teams out of that contract/conference to benefit another, it would be back to that tortious interference we all know about. ESPN would have to be very very careful as to what they do to in such a case that would not open them up to a huge lawsuit.

Same goes for the conference/schools working together to get out of the GoR and media deal they have with ESPN. They would open themselves up to similar challenges.

Agree that both schools and ESPN have to play it close to the vest to avoid any damage lawsuits.

But the reality is some ACC school will try to get out of the GOR because they are contractually obligated for 13 more years whereas OuT were only obligated for 3 years. And CBS wasn't going to increase their rights payments for OuT to join SEC early. Plus doubt ESPN wanted bump their SEC payment and still pay what they owed Big12.

I saw an analysis and FSU Athletics will conservatively earn $600M less than their Big10/SEC counterparts over the 13 years.

And the $600M doesn't consider what happens in 2026 when a 12 team playoff goes out to bid. The rules like 6 auto bids or equal distribution are all open to discussion. Do the Big10 and SEC make a power place for higher shares?

 

[brett108]

Don’t know the validity but sign me up. Add Colorado and anyone else not named Utah because **** those guys and we got a super sweet conference

You would rather have BYU than Utah? If I could swap the two I’d do so yesterday.

 

[JP4CY]

You would rather have BYU than Utah? If I could swap the two I’d do so yesterday.

BYU is a worldwide brand. It's not Notre Dame level but it's huge.

 

[RustShack]

You would rather have BYU than Utah? If I could swap the two I’d do so yesterday.

Why? Because you want less money for the conference or?