Exploring different ISU Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios.

[ZachsterPoke]

Typed this up during the Oklahoma v Texas Tech game. Went through a bunch of different ways the tiebreakers could shake out for the Big 12 Championship if Iowa State either A) won out or B) dropped 1 of the next 3.

Figured some of you might be interested in skimming through it.

If you go to the subreddit itself, I have some extra formatting and logos included in it. Just make sure the "Use subreddit style" box in the right column is checked.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Wow great work; this will be useful in solving a lot of conversations at work Monday morning.

 

[ZachsterPoke]

I think the only thing I didn't really consider is either WVU or OU dropping enough games to fall out of the tiebreakers entirely. Which, by any sense, is a long shot regardless.

And I know for a fact I'm not going back through that beast again to add them.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

So it sounds like we should be routing for OU to win out at this point, because the majority of the scenarios that put us in the championship would be with OU as the #1 seed?

 

[DarkStar]

I do not want to just make it to the championship game. I want to WIN the championship game.

To do that, this team has to keep improving in all phases of the game. Because we are not yet playing at the full capacity of this team or at a Championship level.

Lets face it. The door is wide open to get there and we need some help getting the stars to align just right to get there. But, the most improbable event listed is ISU winning out. But that is also the one thing listed above that we can do something about.

GO CYCLONES! Let's make this a November To Remember!

 

[Cyclonepride]

I do not want to just make it to the championship game. I want to WIN the championship game.

To do that, this team has to keep improving in all phases of the game. Because we are not yet playing at the full capacity of this team or at a Championship level.

Lets face it. The door is wide open to get there and we need some help getting the stars to align just right to get there. But, the most improbable event listed is ISU winning out. But that is also the one thing listed above that we can do something about.

GO CYCLONES! Let's make this a November To Remember!

I'd qualify that as not playing at a championship level in every game. We certainly were against WV. Not so much against TT and KU, but then, we found a way to win anyway. We certainly need to play well these last three, and particularly well against Texas, to get it done.

 

[Montgomery-Magic]

Wow thanks for posting this. My take away is we must win out and OU MUST beat WVU. Anything beyond that and my head hurts

 

[cyrocksmypants]

Wow thanks for posting this. My take away is we must win out and OU MUST beat WVU. Anything beyond that and my head hurts

Oklahoma State will somehow beat OU and WVU but then lose to TCU, because that’s pretty much how their season has gone.

 

[ForeverIowan]

West Virginia will not have a cakewalk in Stillwater against Okie State. I'd think West Virginia will be favored by around 3.

What an enormous game there could be OU at West Virginia in the final week of the season. Both teams could have one loss and fighting for their college football playoff lives. That game in Vegas I'd think will be a pick it. Hopefully we win out and can sit back and root like crazy for the Sooners.

 

[DarkStar]

I'd qualify that as not playing at a championship level in every game. We certainly were against WV. Not so much against TT and KU, but then, we found a way to win anyway. We certainly need to play well these last three, and particularly well against Texas, to get it done.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying.

But, defense played at a championship level against WV. Special teams definitely did not play at a championship level in that game and the offense left a lot of points on the field during that game especially during the second half. We won that game because our defense put a clown suit on a Heisman caliber QB and just spun him around and abused him for four straight quarters.

Not ripping on the team because they and the coaches were saying the same things after the WVU game. It actually gets me even more hyped because this team has yet to put together a complete game. When they finally do..... Picture me like Homer Simpsons in a trance staring at a box of donuts slowing saying "Cyclones...."

 

[MNCYWX]

tl;dr

 

[clonedude]

There's only one thing ISU can control.... just win the rest of your games.

If we do that, I'll be thrilled to death no matter what happens outside of that. If it's enough to get us in the championship game, then great. If not, so be it... we'll still be going to a good bowl.

You can only do what YOU can do.

 

[HFCS]

Before the season started I felt like we wouldn't beat OU (head to head 2 straight or in the standings) but I thought we had as good a chance as anyone to finish #2 so I looked at what it would have taken historically to get that #2 position.

Previous round robin regular season format results going back even before title game but 10 team round robin:
'17: 1 loss champ, 2 loss runner up
'16: Undefeated champ, 2 way tie among 2 loss runner ups
'15: Undefeated champ, 2 way tie among 2 loss runner ups
'14: Tie for first, both 1 loss teams
'13: 1 loss champ, 3 way tie among 2 loss runner ups
'12: Tie for first, both 1 loss teams
'11: 1 loss champ, 2 loss runner up
* in '14 a team (KSU) finished outside top 2 with two losses, otherwise two losses or better has guaranteed at least a tie for top 2

So in the 7 years we've had this format if there had been 14 CCG spots:
Undefeated: 2/2 making CCG
1 loss: 7/7 making CCG
2 loss: 5/10
3 loss: 0/0, although I think it may be a bit of a statistical anomaly that there hasn't been at least one 3 loss runner up.

Effectively a 3rd loss has been an eliminator in 14 chances for this birth. I'm sure it is likely to happen at some point, but 14 samples is probably enough to know it will be rare.

A 2 loss season would have got you in this game exactly half of the times a 2 loss season has happened in our round robin. I'm not sure if 14 spots is a large enough sample but I wouldn't be surprised if our odds of making the playoff if we win out aren't close to 50% like they have been for those 10 teams that had 2 losses.

 

[heitclone]

This is pretty vague, could you get into some specifics?

 

[Beyerball]

Probably unlikely...but any chance ISU can float up top being ranked in the top 12 if we win out? I guess the odds of ISU making a NYE 6 bowl are pretty slim to none if we don’t even make the conf title game. Just think it kinda sucks if we do win out and don’t make the title game and finish 9-3 and best bowl we make is prob the Camping world bowl...

Man big 12 bowl tie ins are crap.

 

[HFCS]

Probably unlikely...but any chance ISU can float up top being ranked in the top 12 if we win out? I guess the odds of ISU making a NYE 6 bowl are pretty slim to none if we don’t even make the conf title game. Just think it kinda sucks if we do win out and don’t make the title game and finish 9-3 and best bowl we make is prob the Camping world bowl...

Man big 12 bowl tie ins are crap.

Our computer average was 22 after the first ranking and the committee put us 24, which to be honest shocked me. I'd have bet a sizable amount we'd be outside the top 25.

Jumping 3 or 4 spots a week would still take some chaos though even though it seems ISU is shockingly on their radar.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Oddsmakers have Oklahoma pegged as a 5 point favorite at WV as of yesterday.

 

[Nolaeer]

Excellent work. If WVU doesnt win out, id consider a big 12 title a disappointment, unless we beat UGA or LSU in the Sugar bowl.

The one thing working in WVU's favor, that I dont think anyone is considering, is the weather.

TCU is @ Morgantown, only their 2nd trip out of texas thuis season(they lost @ kansas). It is going to cold as hell Saturday in Morgantown. TCU has texas players, WVU's players hail from wva, Pa, detroit, Philly, maryland, OhIo, cold weather venues. We even have several from delaware, a small state wvu owns in recruiting. Sills, bigelow are both from there.

they are used to playing in cold weather and snow.

OU is in late november. there could be snow and ice on the field. a large portion of Ou's players hail from texas.

I fear the road game at Oklahoma State more than Ou at home in cold. Gundy will pull out the stops, he has nothing to lose(like texas). it wouldnt surprise me if Gundy goes for it on every 4th down and onsides kicks.

Scary game when a team has nothing to lose, like texas found out.

 

[Jerms]

Not ripping on the team because they and the coaches were saying the same things after the WVU game. It actually gets me even more hyped because this team has yet to put together a complete game. When they finally do..... Picture me like Homer Simpsons in a trance staring at a box of donuts slowing saying "Cyclones...."

Completely agree with this. I've been excited for the wins, but after every game I've thought we could've played better. We've had mistakes. Probably won't ever have a perfect game, but we haven't had to play out of our minds to win either. There is still room for improvement. That's the exciting part.

 

[StLouisClone]

I am a longtime Cyclone fan and have never had more confidence in the ability of this team to run the table. And the funny thing is that it started when Purdy beat OSU and we were still only 2-3.

We are still a modest 5-3 in terms of overall record. That ranks behind our 6-2 starts in 2000 (finished 9-3) and 2002 (finished 7-7). Those teams were good but had never proven they could beat or generally even stay close to ranked teams. This ISU team (as well as last year's) seems to play its best against the ranked teams.