Iowa State squarely on the bubble in latest bracketology

[Connor_Ferguson]

Some interesting projections for March Madness this year. Biggest one that sticks out to me is TCU at a No. 4 seed.

Iowa State squarely on the bubble in ESPN Bracketology Update

Iowa State is squarely on the bubble in ESPN's post-summer bracketology update that dropped Tuesday morning. The Cyclones are listed in the 'first four out' category as the squad looks to return to the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has four conferences - the Big 12,

cyclonefanatic.com

 

[NorthCyd]

Seems fair, if not even giving TJ some benefit of the doubt given we lost the 2 best players on the team from last year.

 

[mj4cy]

Trash if Iowa's even listed on there with that roster...

 

[CycloneWanderer]

So... It's August... Is there really a bubble to be on in August?

 

[JP4CY]

I see the PAC is still bad at basketball. Gonna be a brutal league when SC and UCLA leave (2 of the 4 projected seeds).

 

[Cyclonepride]

With the turnover now, most predictions (especially when you get beyond the teams that somehow have a lot coming back) are a total guess.

 

[CyCrazy]

So... It's August... Is there really a bubble to be on in August?

Well there is the Ames bubble where we dont get rain. Does that count?

 

[HFCS]

Trash if Iowa's even listed on there with that roster...

Fran's strategy of intentionally stunting the development of his other NBA twin will come into focus this year.

Even so, they lost just as much as ISU (maybe much more if you watched NBA summer league at all) and were an objectively worse basketball team than ISU last year...and they didn't bring in much talent.

 

[HFCS]

I see the PAC is still bad at basketball. Gonna be a brutal league when SC and UCLA leave (2 of the 4 projected seeds).

It's hard to predict.

Two years ago they were supposed to be horrible and then had the best NCAA tournament of any league top to bottom.

I get why Arizona wants to join the #1 basketball conference though.

 

[HFCS]

Seems fair, if not even giving TJ some benefit of the doubt given we lost the 2 best players on the team from last year.

We lost a great defender in Hunter but gained an elite defender in the paint, because we have Gabe back on defense I will take that trade defensively as an improvement. On offense we all think Hunter would've improved but he was a horrible shooter most games, not even 40% fg on season.

Brockington is a legit gigantic question mark in terms of replacing what we lost. Huge number of games where he carried entire offense. For people who actually watched our offense, just losing Brockington alone is enough to warrant not projecting us as a tournament team.

 

[qwerty]

Trash if Iowa's even listed on there with that roster...

Iowa should be automatically listed in the First Four Out . . . . once the tourney field is announced (if they make it in).

 

[Cyforce]

Surprised to see Drake in as an auto qualifier. Just looked at their roster. Penn, Wilkins and Sturtz are back for their bonus year.

 

[Sigmapolis]

That seems fair. Despite making the Sweet Sixteen, I would say Iowa State snuck into the tournament as one of the last four byes (or dangerously close to that) last season as a #11 seed.

I think this year's team projects pretty close to last year --

PG Hunter to Williams is a push (Hunter has a higher ceiling from here, though)
Take a step backwards with off-ball guards (AJG would have been nice to replace Brockington)
I don't think too much, though... I hope Holmes surprises, GK and CG are back, plus two talented freshmen
Wings should be better... Kunc + King + Watson is an upgrade on Kunc + Enaruna
Big men should be much better... Osun/Ward/Jones much better than Conditt/Jones

Worse backcourt, better frontcourt, still likely to be menacing on defense but find it hard to score.

Feels like a similar projection to last year -- just going to depend on how a few close games go. Not having Brockington around to pull rabbits out of his butt is going to be a problem, though.

 

[HFCS]

That seems fair. Despite making the Sweet Sixteen, I would say Iowa State snuck into the tournament as one of the last four byes (or dangerously close to that) last season as a #11 seed.

I think this year's team projects pretty close to last year --

PG Hunter to Williams is a push (Hunter has a higher ceiling from here, though)
Take a step backwards with off-ball guards (AJG would have been nice to replace Brockington)
I don't think too much, though... I hope Holmes surprises, GK and CG are back, plus two talented freshmen
Wings should be better... Kunc + King + Watson is an upgrade on Kunc + Enaruna
Big men should be much better... Osun/Ward/Jones much better than Conditt/Jones

Worse backcourt, better frontcourt, still likely to be menacing on defense but find it hard to score.

Feels like a similar projection to last year -- just going to depend on how a few close games go. Not having Brockington around to pull rabbits out of his butt is going to be a problem, though.

A lot of this is just failure to acknowledge how good and underrated the Big 12 was as the runaway best conference. 1 seed Arizona was fortunate to get by TCU in OT in the second round. That's not to disrespect Arizona. It didn't look like a 1/9 game because I think TCU would have probably pushed around competition in most other conferences last year. Swap TCU in ISU's place and I'm quite certain they'd have exposed Wisconsin/Big Ten like ISU did.

OK State was playing better basketball than most NCAA teams by late in the year despite their 15-15 record. They weren't even eligible for the tourney but were able to hang some L's on big 12 ncaa teams. This bracketologist would probably agree with that because he has OK St in.

No other league was anywhere CLOSE to the 80% or 90% deep the Big 12 was.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Iowa doesn't appear to be good on paper, but it's really not different than any other year, sans the Luka/Wieskamp teams from 2019-21. Fran can always be counted on to have his teams ready to crush the teams they should, beat the teams they should, and can almost always be counted on to lose the games he should...and shouldn't, such as NCAA Tournament 1st and 2nd round games against lower seeds.

Frans formula is one overrated ball hog surrounded by shooters with limited athleticism and next to no defensive acumen. It is good for high scoring games and occasionally stomping a hapless opponent. It's a pretty cheap style IMO, it's like the Dollar Tree version of Hoiball.

 

[HFCS]

Iowa doesn't appear to be good on paper, but it's really not different than any other year, sans the Luka/Wieskamp teams from 2019-21. Fran can always be counted on to have his teams ready to crush the teams they should, beat the teams they should, and can almost always be counted on to lose the games he should...and shouldn't, such as NCAA Tournament 1st and 2nd round games against lower seeds.

Frans formula is one overrated ball hog surrounded by shooters with limited athleticism and next to no defensive acumen. It is good for high scoring games and occasionally stomping a hapless opponent. It's a pretty cheap style IMO, it's like the Dollar Tree version of Hoiball.

I expect Kris Murray to be very good now that he'll be allowed to play the minutes his skill merits. Still he'll have less around him than his brother did last year.

Other than Keegan/Garza he's been their top advanced stats guy...basically he's been limited by the coach rather than actually making mistakes on the court.

26.1 PER last year is probably one of the highest you'll ever see for a bench player. It's way better than Iowa's non Murray/Garza starters of the past decade.

 

[CyHans]

Let them overlook us. I'd rather come into the season with a chip on our shoulder.

 

[Sigmapolis]

A lot of this is just failure to acknowledge how good and underrated the Big 12 was as the runaway best conference. 1 seed Arizona was fortunate to get by TCU in OT in the second round. That's not to disrespect Arizona. It didn't look like a 1/9 game because I think TCU would have probably pushed around competition in most other conferences last year. Swap TCU in ISU's place and I'm quite certain they'd have exposed Wisconsin/Big Ten like ISU did.

OK State was playing better basketball than most NCAA teams by late in the year despite their 15-15 record. They weren't even eligible for the tourney but were able to hang some L's on big 12 ncaa teams. This bracketologist would probably agree with that because he has OK St in.

No other league was anywhere CLOSE to the 80% or 90% deep the Big 12 was.

I wonder what is the highest share of a conference to make the tournament.

I bet the Big Ten or ACC has had more teams than seven before, but never a >70% "hit" rate. Having an extra 4-5 (a lot of which suck you can rack up wins against) has to help. You are completely right there were no nights off in the Big 12 last year. Anybody could (and often did) beat anybody else.

The Big 12 has had 7/10 (70%) with some regularity the past decade (though never eight) --



Seems the key really is eking out the #6 or #7 seed in the conference. And the difference between those and #8 or #9 really is just a few possessions in a few key games (see WVU at home last year).

 

[HFCS]

I wonder what is the highest share of a conference to make the tournament.

I bet the Big Ten or ACC has had more teams than seven before, but never a >70% "hit" rate. Having an extra 4-5 (a lot of which suck you can rack up wins against) has to help. You are completely right there were no nights off in the Big 12 last year. Anybody could (and often did) beat anybody else.

The Big 12 has had 7/10 (70%) with some regularity the past decade (though never eight) --

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Seems the key really is eking out the #6 or #7 seed in the conference. And the difference between those and #8 or #9 really is just a few possessions in a few key games (see WVU at home last year).

I'm excited for us to get back to 12 or more teams.

Getting 7 of 10 is generally treated like we're exactly equal (or even inferior) to conferences that get 7 out of 14/15.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'm excited for us to get back to 12 or more teams.

Getting 7 of 10 is generally treated like we're exactly equal (or even inferior) to conferences that get 7 out of 14/15.

Yeah, it is ridiculous. Soon we'll be in a world of 16 and up.

The new Big 12 of twelve is going to be absolutely brutal for basketball, though.

Oklahoma and Texas are traditionally-strong programs. Oklahoma might take a step back after the Kruger retirement (and seems to have done so so far) and Texas has never quite lived up to its talent (as is typical with Texas, though we'll see how Beard does when he has some time to rework things).

So those are losses but... Houston has it rolling right now. Cincinnati and BYU have good tradition. The only tomato can being added is UCF, but I bet they step up their game in a better conference.

So instead of having to fight nine homicidal maniacs... you might have to fight 11.

And there's still only 6-7 spots to go around.

Good luck us.