Iowa State squarely on the bubble in latest bracketology

[Sigmapolis]

Iowa lost their best player and is in. Hilarious that Lunardi thinks the McCaffrey Brothers and the lesser Murray can take iowa back to the dance. Although they do have the weak *** conference schedule to lean on.

I know we like to make fun of Iowa basketball, but Fran has proven a stubborn ability to put together teams just good enough to make the tournament and bow out early over the years. We thought they were screwed after so many of their "greats" left... Gatens, Marble, White, Uthoff, Jok, Garza, Wieskamp, Murray... and like the world's worst case of herpes, they always seem to maintain their mediocrity and get up for the ISU game. I see no reason why they won't somehow do that again. There comes a point where they are what they are.

 

[drmwevr08]

Even being on the bubble says a lot about what he thinks of TJ. Last years team had no business there, but still lost a lot. This years team without that experience lingering gets picked for 12 wins.

 

[Cyclones_R_GR8]

I wonder how much ESPN pays Lunardi to just sit around throwing "stuff" at the wall to see if it sticks

 

[VeloClone]

I hope you're right. I just don't know if we have anybody who will be as individually talented and productive as was Brockington (again, AJG, but that train has sailed forever) or as good as Hunter was towards the end of the season when he really came on. The roster might be more talented in sum and deeper than last year, but basketball is so often how good your best 1-2 guys are, not your ~20 MPG bench guys.

I will say that TJ and the staff proved they could get way more than the sum of the parts out of the team last year. We had way more talented teams during the Hoiberg and early Prohm/Shayok year that did far less overall than last year in terms of W/L and games won in the NCAA tournament, though many of them had superior records against a slightly-worse Big 12. If TJ can take a ragtag menagerie of a roster like last year, one down three scholarship players before the first game (including one guy expected to play major minutes in Hinson and one "cornerstone" of the program going forward in Foster), and then manufacture a Sweet Sixteen out of it based simply on grind, hustle, and defensive acumen, then I think that says great things for the next season.

I can see that. However, having one star who carries the load offensively is pretty precarious especially in a league that plays tough defense top to bottom. It is pretty easy for good defensive teams to concentrate on stopping one player. Having more threats that aren't of the same quality as that "one guy" may make it tougher to go find a bucket in crunch time but may also make it tougher on the other team defensively throughout the game rather than concentrating on shutting down your only offensive threat.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I can see that. However, having one star who carries the load offensively is pretty precarious especially in a league that plays tough defense top to bottom. It is pretty easy for good defensive teams to concentrate on stopping one player. Having more threats that aren't of the same quality as that "one guy" may make it tougher to go find a bucket in crunch time but may also make it tougher on the other team defensively throughout the game rather than concentrating on shutting down your only offensive threat.

Yeah, Brockington started strong but was up-and-down much of the Big 12 season. He had some dominant games but also some clunkers, and he had something of a slump late in the year. We kind of forgot about that being Hunter was hot and because of the two wins in Milwaukee, though.

Teams were definitely keying on taking away his left hand.

 

[qwerty]

I wonder how much ESPN pays Lunardi to just sit around throwing "stuff" at the wall to see if it sticks

Pick a number . . . . you will probably be closer in your guess than he is in his.

 

[madguy30]

I wonder how much ESPN pays Lunardi to just sit around throwing "stuff" at the wall to see if it sticks

I want his job and draft analysts like Kiper.

Their job doesn't require accuracy, just talking and assuming a bunch.

 

[Cydkar]

Iowa lost their best player and is in. Hilarious that Lunardi thinks the McCaffrey Brothers and the lesser Murray can take iowa back to the dance. Although they do have the weak *** conference schedule to lean on.

They will get in. Lots of teams lose their best player and get in. We lost 2 of ours and I think we get in.

 

[Jkclone15]

Yeah, it is ridiculous. Soon we'll be in a world of 16 and up.

The new Big 12 of twelve is going to be absolutely brutal for basketball, though.

Oklahoma and Texas are traditionally-strong programs. Oklahoma might take a step back after the Kruger retirement (and seems to have done so so far) and Texas has never quite lived up to its talent (as is typical with Texas, though we'll see how Beard does when he has some time to rework things).

So those are losses but... Houston has it rolling right now. Cincinnati and BYU have good tradition. The only tomato can being added is UCF, but I bet they step up their game in a better conference.

So instead of having to fight nine homicidal maniacs... you might have to fight 11.

And there's still only 6-7 spots to go around.

Good luck us.

I would like to think that once there's 12 teams instead of 10, the committee will let the conference have an extra tourney team or two. With how deep the league could be I wouldn't be shocked to see 9/12 make it into the tournament, and I think 8 will be the new default instead of 7.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would like to think that once there's 12 teams instead of 10, the committee will let the conference have an extra tourney team or two. With how deep the league could be I wouldn't be shocked to see 9/12 make it into the tournament, and I think 8 will be the new default instead of 7.

Seems 70% is the historical ceiling so...

6 / 12 = 50.0%
7 / 12 = 58.3%
8 / 12 = 66.7% (seems to be the ceiling then)
9 / 12 = 75.0% (too many)

So seems you add two teams (on net) but only get one more slot based on historical evidence.

It would take an exceptional year for nine of 12 to make it past the committee.

 

[Thomasrickj]

Defense got a lot better and we're going to grab a lot more rebounds and blocks this year with big @ss dudes like Osunniyi.

As far as the offense, I don't think it's going to be worse once Tre King comes back. Having a lineup with Holmes, Kalscheur, (fill in the blank), but I'll go with Kunc here), King, and Osunniyi is a lot more balanced. We have better finishers around the rim than last year (Jones is just not a good player) and shooting is more balanced with Holmes and King. Do I think this offense is anywhere near elite? Of course not, but I also think we won't struggle to score 70 in conference like we seemed to do last season.

Pencil me in for better than last year. This squad should be able to finish in the top half of the conference.

 

[t-noah]

Cincinnati and BYU would probably be picked between #9 and #10 (sorry KSU, probably going to be a rough year for the Wildcats) if they were playing in the Big 12 next season. I don't see why they can't consistently be in the middle of the conference fighting for the NCAA tournament if a few games/possessions go their way in conference play, though. UCF is probably the only guaranteed punching bag in the short term.

Agree. Our conference has and continues to have unbelievable BB talent / teams. And just to make your picture more rosey, UCF will likely not be a 'punching bag' forever. They will improve. Look at TCU. They certainly are no pushover anymore, actually one of the top teams this year.

 

[t-noah]

Defense got a lot better and we're going to grab a lot more rebounds and blocks this year with big @ss dudes like Osunniyi.

As far as the offense, I don't think it's going to be worse once Tre King comes back. Having a lineup with Holmes, Kalscheur, (fill in the blank), but I'll go with Kunc here), King, and Osunniyi is a lot more balanced. We have better finishers around the rim than last year (Jones is just not a good player) and shooting is more balanced with Holmes and King. Do I think this offense is anywhere near elite? Of course not, but I also think we won't struggle to score 70 in conference like we seemed to do last season.

Pencil me in for better than last year. This squad should be able to finish in the top half of the conference.

Yeah and we are penciled in to have a new 'Brockington' every year now! Be nice anyway!

Can you imagine where we would have been last year without that final recruiting addition (Brockington)?

Should be a fun team to watch and grow. This year we have two big holes (I guess unknowns now) in Brockington and Hunter, our two best players. I largely agree with your assessment though. TJ has been amazing at putting togther another team.