You're wrong with the foul stats, but correct in the strategy. Two players in particular I think. It doesn't happen often, but there have a been a few games where Gilbert will pick up 2 early fouls and have to sit a fair bit in the first half. He's been so good defensively for us that any 6-8 minute stretch where he may be on the bench is a big challenge.
Then of course our bigs, particularly Ward. Hason has been incapable of staying out of foul trouble for a lot of the year and is super impactful when he is on the court. If it's one of those days where he can only play 10-12 minutes because of fouls, that bodes well for the Illini. If Hason can keep it clean and play ~20 minutes that's a big win for us, as his length/athleticism are immense for us on the defensive side and then the lob game offensively.