***Official 2024 Weather Thread***

[SayMyName]

The one area I'm looking forward to AI in is weather forecasting. I understand why it's impossible to accurately model more than about 48 hours out, but hopefully AI helps with that some. That way, instead of saying we're going to get a foot of snow and us being pissed off that we got an inch, we would have hopefully been closer to the real amount and never gotten our hopes up. Probably a long ways off though considering all the dynamic variables.

I wouldn't get your hopes up on that. Various forms of what could be considered as "AI" have been used in this space for decades - machine learning, advanced algorithms, deterministic vs probabilistic modeling, etc. Quantum computing would help here, but the lack of sufficient hyper-local sensor data across historical time will be a limiting factor no matter how good your trained models are or how much computational horsepower you have to throw at it.

AI output can only as be good as the information is that goes into it, both initially and on an ongoing basis.

 

[Jer]

I wouldn't get your hopes up on that. Various forms of what could be considered as "AI" have been used in this space for decades - machine learning, advanced algorithms, deterministic vs probabilistic modeling, etc. Quantum computing would help here, but the lack of sufficient hyper-local sensor data across historical time will be a limiting factor no matter how good your trained models are or how much computational horsepower you have to throw at it.

AI output can only as be good as the information is that goes into it, both initially and on an ongoing basis.

Yeah, I know, unfortunately. Ironically, what most people call AI as a possible use case for things like this is really typically machine learning - but AI technically works too depending on how implemented.

 

[wxman1]

Quad Cities afternoon discussion basically highlights the uncertainty of the track at this time, strong winds of 40+Monday night and then this gem at the end "Beyond this system a major pattern change to a snowier and colder regime is expected at least through the middle of January."

 

[dtISU]

Quad Cities afternoon discussion basically highlights the uncertainty of the track at this time, strong winds of 40+Monday night and then this gem at the end "Beyond this system a major pattern change to a snowier and colder regime is expected at least through the middle of January."

****

 

[jsb]

The one area I'm looking forward to AI in is weather forecasting. I understand why it's impossible to accurately model more than about 48 hours out, but hopefully AI helps with that some. That way, instead of saying we're going to get a foot of snow and us being pissed off that we got an inch, we would have hopefully been closer to the real amount and never gotten our hopes up. Probably a long ways off though considering all the dynamic variables.

Honestly if a person reads the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service, you can get a general idea on what is going to happen. The big thing is they don't try and go crazy with the predictions more than a few days out. But you can get an idea on what the models are looking like and the different variables.

 

[snowcraig2.0]

The one area I'm looking forward to AI in is weather forecasting. I understand why it's impossible to accurately model more than about 48 hours out, but hopefully AI helps with that some. That way, instead of saying we're going to get a foot of snow and us being pissed off that we got an inch, we would have hopefully been closer to the real amount and never gotten our hopes up. Probably a long ways off though considering all the dynamic variables.

Do you think AI can talk to my wife so she's not disappointed in only an inch?

 

[SayMyName]

Do you think AI can talk to my wife so she's not disappointed in only an inch?

Only if it is Generative AI, iykwim

 

[alarson]

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

Bust written all over it folks

 

[wxman1]

 

[Gunnerclone]

Bust written all over it folks

Definitely looking like one of those “2” in Ankeny, 8” in Norwalk” kind of set ups.

 

[chuckd4735]

This This This. I still find it amazing that we as a human race are able to get a general idea of where the systems will go almost 2 weeks out. I'm even more amazed on how people treat meteorologist if those 10-day forecast don't come to fruition.

 

[pourcyne]

NOAA, peeps. That's where every other source else gets its info.

National Weather Service Conus - 30 Day Outlook

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

I still like Midwest Weather on Facebook.

 

[NorthCyd]

Bust written all over it folks

We're calling forecasts a week out a bust already?

 

[BCClone]

We're calling forecasts a week out a bust already?

Well, when it looks like this...........................

 

[stateofmind]

Well, when it looks like this...........................

View attachment 121623

When wet

 

[MTEORisu]

We're calling forecasts a week out a bust already?

^^The exact reason why forecasters are almost more worn out by the days leading up to major weather events than the events themselves.

The random social media pages start putting out apocalyptic "forecasts" 10 days out. That forces us to respond & try to stop the hype train. People get deluged with posts and some of them almost seem to equate the quantity of posts with expected weather impact -- i.e. lots of talk = tons of snow -- even though most posts can be summarized as "Hey this might be significant, but it's just too early to know yet".

After days of that, the first reliable forecasts finally come out showing <4" of snow or something, and people feel like it's a bust and was overhyped just because they've been hearing chatter for a week or more.

 

[CRcyclone6]

Quad Cities afternoon discussion basically highlights the uncertainty of the track at this time, strong winds of 40+Monday night and then this gem at the end "Beyond this system a major pattern change to a snowier and colder regime is expected at least through the middle of January."

I don't like that. A colder regime?

 

[CYEATHAWK]

^^The exact reason why forecasters are almost more worn out by the days leading up to major weather events than the events themselves.

The random social media pages start putting out apocalyptic "forecasts" 10 days out. That forces us to respond & try to stop the hype train. People get deluged with posts and some of them almost seem to equate the quantity of posts with expected weather impact -- i.e. lots of talk = tons of snow -- even though most posts can be summarized as "Hey this might be significant, but it's just too early to know yet".

After days of that, the first reliable forecasts finally come out showing <4" of snow or something, and people feel like it's a bust and was overhyped just because they've been hearing chatter for a week or more.

The Weather Channel doesn't really help either when they tag a name on a winter storm and then proceed to tell everyone how many hundreds of millions of Americans will be adversely affected by "Bob".