Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Cyclonsin]

Talking out of my @$$ but in terms of just college football eyeballs I would think just FSU adds more value than any of the four schools the Big Ten just added given they have nothing in Florida yet. Significantly more than three of them.

It's possible the networks are truly just tapped out short term but long term I can't see how adding USC/UCLA as a geographic island was great but adding FSU/Miami or just FSU is a pass.

I think they'll take them at reduced rate because they can get them at a reduced rate. It will still be a significant increase over the ACC payout and gets them a seat at the P2. Plus, it continues to set a nice precedent of giving partial shares to any newcomers.

 

[Clonehomer]

Only ways that I see FSU leaving:
1. They find some language in the contract that ESPN is not fulfilling their end and they can use that to void the contract, or at least their involvement in it.
2. The MVer guy finally is right about something for the first time in this whole realignment process and the ACC and Big12 vote to join in a new league outside the NCAA
3. Pay crazy amounts of money.

None of these options seem at all realistic

 

[HFCS]

I think they'll take them at reduced rate because they can get them at a reduced rate. It will still be a significant increase over the ACC payout and gets them a seat at the P2. Plus, it continues to set a nice precedent of giving partial shares to any newcomers.

Yeah, they might actually be the most valuable of those 5 (FSU and the four from Pac) but circumstance and timing dictate they wouldn't get as much. My total guess is their actual value is close to USC and higher than the other three recent adds. UCLA obviously is the winner in that whole matter of circumstance.

The real crazy one to think about is what value does Clemson add to SEC. It's not some guarantee they'll ever get back to their recent zenith and it's a small population state the SEC already has. FSU is big enough the SEC would be interested no matter what, Miami's value to the SEC is also very interesting. Miami's value to Big Ten if they add FSU is interesting too. In terms of a tag-along I think Miami > UCLA but again like you said there's some circumstance of being the last additions to something that is already stretched thin for such fast expansion.

Then the next level down you have Duke as a question mark. At some point if it's really about football brands and these conferences add the marquee football schools from Big 12 (already done), Pac (already done) and ACC (in the process) you have to wonder. Assuming Duke is a good football program would be like judging Northwestern from that one year in the 90s they won the Big Ten.

 

[Nolaeer]

I dont think the SEC wants to be coast to coast. They have the SE, which is a dominant area with Texas. I dont think the BIG will expend beyond 20, and im not sure the SEC goes beyond 18, and that's only if they can add the virginia and nc markets.

if the virginia legislature ties VT to UVA, they may both fall to the big 12.

 

[cykadelic2]

Only ways that I see FSU leaving:
1. They find some language in the contract that ESPN is not fulfilling their end and they can use that to void the contract, or at least their involvement in it.
2. The MVer guy finally is right about something for the first time in this whole realignment process and the ACC and Big12 vote to join in a new league outside the NCAA
3. Pay crazy amounts of money.

None of these options seem at all realistic

Regarding #2, a merged B12/ACC/PAC entity would not be outside the NCAA, it would have 3 separate conferences, would hold a 3-2 majority vote vs the B10/SEC on CFP matters and get 60% of the CFP revenue pie as opposed to half in a P4 setup or 33% in a P3.

If #1 doesn't materialize, Option #2 becomes viable if there are bidders beyond Fox and ESPN who can significantly increase annual payouts for top ACC schools like FSU, Clemson and UNC.

 

[JP4CY]

 

[isucy86]

Disagree about the SEC's intentions.

They are not competing for eyeballs in regions at this point. They have big enough brands they don't care about getting a 2 instead of a 1 viewer rating in Wyoming.

SEC product strategy is to have the "best" programs and that's enough to drive huge viewership in the handful of prime timeslots. They only need maybe 4 marquee games per week. 16 teams where roughly 8 of them are blue bloods, that's enough right there for the matchups needed.

That's also why FSU has value for them - it's not about gaining eyeballs in Florida. It's about another huge brand to bring into the fold. Clemson is same.

This is a little different than B1G. They are doing same wrt brands, but they ARE looking for geography too. I think the BTN brings value from that, apparently worth the effort. I still wouldn't be shocked if the BTN adds Stanford someday.

But we aren't talking about Wyoming. Does the SEC want to attract viewers in Colorado, Arizona, Utah? And all those schools have sizable alumni bases in California. It would be a natural progression to existing SEC schools in Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma.

Take it one step further, does the SEC want to encroach on the Big10's Midwest base? Would Kansas and/or Iowa State push the SEC's presence north to compliment Mizzou. If SEC media rights $ remain on par with the Big10, would the SEC make a play for Nebraska? Would Nebraska rather play Oklahoma or Iowa?

You're right, the key for the Big10 and SEC is adding Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, UNC, etc. Because for every ++ media rights school, the Big10 and SEC can afford to take a below average media rights school (aka if FSU is worth $125M and ISU is worth $40M, the average/school is $82.5M). And would not be dilutive to the SEC.

The Big10 regional expansion strategy is driven by BTN carriage fees in large MSAs. But what happens if streaming becomes a major player? Amazon, Apple, etc. can broadcast an unlimited # of games and aren't limited to 3 or 4 time slots on Saturday. Streamers might value maximizing people on their platform- not only on Saturday, but the other 6 days a week.

 

[isucy86]

What they want and what they want to get paid for are two vastly different things. If the money isn't there, it's simply not there. Now, of course, I don't know the specifics of the ESPN contract with the SEC (like exclusivity), but if the SEC has a means to scrape up 'alternative' dollars to make it happen, that too is a whole other matter.

Agree the TV folks have to be willing to eventually pony up. So it will be the SEC and Big10 Commissioners job to prove the value of live sports between now and 2030ish- so that FOX, ESPN, CBS and NBC can't afford to not bid-up significantly on the next round of media deals. Especially if Amazon, Apple, etc. are eager bidders in the wing.

From a school standpoint, don't you think EVERY ACC & Big12 school would be willing to do what Oregon and Washington did, just to make sure they are part of the club in 10 years? I'm sure Jamie would take $32M for the next 6 years to be part of the Big10 or SEC.

I bet the Big10 media rights partners are the real winners with the Oregon & Washington adds. The 2 schools are getting half a share, but the media partners are getting 2 more elite teams and I am sure the TV folks are charging the status quo Big10 ad rates.

 

[Die4Cy]

Major media companies will not be the ones driving the next step. Moves take money, and they have been in a cost savings mode for awhile already. The next step will be institutional in an effort to make competitive sense out of the mess of the transfer portal, NIL, and the NCAA's (or another body's) authority in establishing rules that all P5/G5 schools can agree on by giving up on the fiction that players are primarily students and not employees. That takes outside help from Congress.

AD's and coaches are already calling for it. Once the players realize the wild west we are in is not to most of their benefit, they will come to the table also. I'm still hopeful that it could work out well, but we are probably a few seasons away from that. Hopefully no permanent damage is done to any other programs while it gets sorted out.

 

[Ace000087]

ISU and KU to the SEC

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Talking out of my @$$ but in terms of just college football eyeballs I would think just FSU adds more value than any of the four schools the Big Ten just added given they have nothing in Florida yet. Significantly more than three of them.

It's possible the networks are truly just tapped out short term but long term I can't see how adding USC/UCLA as a geographic island was great but adding FSU/Miami or just FSU is a pass.

USC, Oregon and Washington's eyeball numbers will increase when they start playing half their conference games each year in the East and Midwest time zones instead of the West.
The only reason the B10 took UCLA was because USC was not coming without them, so they had no choice. FSU would allow the B10 to charge more for BTN in the state of Florida so they would end up paying for themselves.

It's all mute anyway, no way they can afford to pay their way out of the ACC, plus when the 12 team playoff kicks in, they and Clemson could be regulars into the playoff, going to be easier to qualify out of the ACC then out of the B10 each year.

 

[BCClone]

I would definitely guess that they will be an attractive addition to the B1G or SEC, but it's interesting that the Big 12 is seen as an option (long shot though it may be). The key will be whether the networks view that addition as worth the high price, or if they think they can get them cheaper while enhancing their Big 12 properties.

Well, if they leave the ACC they truly only have 3 other conference options.

 

[StClone]

I dont think the SEC wants to be coast to coast. They have the SE, which is a dominant area with Texas. I dont think the BIG will expend beyond 20, and im not sure the SEC goes beyond 18, and that's only if they can add the virginia and nc markets.

if the virginia legislature ties VT to UVA, they may both fall to the big 12.

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has even focused on basketball, which he views as undervalued. A Big 12 with basketball powers that include Arizona, Kansas, Baylor, UNC, Duke, Virginia, Louisville and so on would easily be the best in the country.

Florida State leaving the ACC would have massive ramifications for the future of college athletics

FSU desperately wants out of the ACC and its 20-year contract with ESPN, but every turn of conference realignment brings something unexpected.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[BigJCy]

 

[CloneJD]

Hard to argue they are draconian when you agreed to them.

 

[SCNCY]

Hard to argue they are draconian when you agreed to them.

Additionally, when the fees are tied to a contract with a defined future value until 2036.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[cybychoice]

Sure looks like they are setting up for an argument that the contract was signed under duress.

 

[aeroclone]

Sure looks like they are setting up for an argument that the contract was signed under duress.

So we signed a contract under duress in 2016. Then we sat around happily cashing checks until 2023. Then we got screwed by the college football playoff committee. Now we want to come back and complain that the contract was no fair and we want out.

LOL. Good luck with that.

 

[BigJCy]