Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Even if you make it look enticing to the P2 and the "have" brands, that's not enough. They have the game won and a fence around it. To get them to change its going to have to be setup in such a ways as they think it tilts even further their way. Otherwise, why risk change when you already won? And at this point, it isn't about more money, it's about how much more money you have than your competition. e.g. they'd rather have $100M and you have $50M, than have $200M if you get $170M.
Also, consider the P2 tagalongs. You think Purdue or Miss St is going to trade their share of the gold prize, for a smaller share? Because they WILL get a smaller share, with the ratings component. They go back to parity with the B12 and ACC non-blue bloods. Why would they ever sign up for that?
Last issue is the check writers, ie TV. They don't want to pay MORE for more teams. They want to pay less for just the blue bloods. TV is who wants the 20 team blue blood NFL lite. They may not care about who gets the lions' share of the money, but they certainly don't want to pay MORE overall. You will need to be tough as a group to make that work. It's at least as likely that in an effort to force that, the TV people counter by trying to prise off the blue bloods, who might just see it as a chance to be permanently above the hoi polloi on money. It will be really hard to force their hand. You almost need the blue bloods to be more focused on the good of the overall sport than their own self-interest. I mean, just because it has never happened doesn't mean it can't I suppose.
All that said... I DO wish it could happen. One big league to ensure competitive balance, and a chance to set up a fair playoff and sane geographical divisions. I just don't know how or who could make it happen.
Because they're going to get their heads f*cking stoved in going forward. They're cashing checks to be whipping boys. That's going to lead to fan disengagement long term. Only Iowa has managed to protect a cupcake-ish schedule.
This will give them far more opportunity to compete, and a **** load of money.
One thing that could push this forward is if the media partners drive it.
All of these have current contracts for several years now. When we approach the next window to negotiate new contracts, a few things could trigger something like this.
1. If 1 or more of the media partners want it, and are willing to pay for it.
or
2. If at the next contract negotiations the conferences are finding no significant increase in payout offering from the Media. They could look at doing this as a way to increase the payouts, but likely the schools will look at these outside options not the conferences, that would risk their destruction.
This would more likely be driven by schools and media instead of Conferences. Conferences and their power brokers are going to want to save their conferences. But if schools find out they can earn a significant increase in payouts by going the way of something like a super conference etc, you may see some more push towards it.
If schools like FSU, Texas, USC, etc that have shown they are willing to follow the money, find out they can make a significant amount more by ditching the traditional conference and NCAA model, you may see some start pushing harder for it.
If those TV partners and conferences are willing and able to continue the current model and trend without those kind of outside options, you will not see it happen.
First of all, ESPN/Fox control of CFB and their manipulation of realignment will come to a head politically with the impending breakup of the ACC at the hands of ESPN.
Fox already did their damage with their destruction of the PAC with Oregon St and Wazzu as collateral damage. The Cuse President is on the Super League Committee for a reason, his school will become the next Oregon St/Wazzu if ESPN isn't stopped from blowing up the ACC.
When/if the ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10 duopoly is broken up proactively by the B10 and SEC Presidents or by the Feds, then the Super League will fall into place especially if the B10 and SEC bluebloods can be convinced that they are financially better off with unequal revenue from a larger revenue pie that is derived with aggregation of Super League TV rights and bid out NFL style without ESPN and Fox controlling the ship.
I really think it will be driven by the schools, not the conferences. The conferences dont want to change this model, because if they do, the conferences will not exist and will end their control.
It will depend on when and if a media partner is willing to talk to the schools outside the conference. If a media member wants to pay for it and wants this change, they will drive it with schools that want it, and force others hands.
Think OuT, USCLA, FSUCL. If there are schools that find a way to make more money and they have shown that they are willing to follow the money rather than be loyal to a conference, and enough are willing to make the move it will force others to. Similarly to what happened in the PAC and is happening in the ACC.
Short of some major market change, it will not happen until close to the end of the current media contracts at the earliest, though.
Exactly, the only way this works is if all the TV/streaming networks get together and say we aren't going to pay you (SEC and B1G) unless you open up the umbrella (not going to happen either).
No, it will be the other way. The Super League will dictate how the conferences will be aligned, not ESPN and Fox as it is now. The Super League will aggregate all the rights on behalf of the conferences and bid them out NFL style and engage other networks besides the ESPN and Fox duopoly that currently control CFB.
I found the nil section interesting.NIL
The deck proposes a national broadcast NIL (BNIL) construct whereby players receive pro rata shares of a collectively bargained “FB Player Pool,” which would come from the Super League’s TV money. That money would be distributed as follows: 5% to all rostered freshmen, 15% to all rostered sophomores, 30% for all rostered juniors and 50% for all rostered seniors and graduate students.As another means of maintaining competitive equity, the pitch deck proposes a cap that would constrain how much a program’s athletes could cumulatively earn via NIL. The suggested “NIL Roster Cap” would mandate that individual NIL payments for football players at a single school not exceed those earned via group licensing and broadcast NIL (BNIL) deals.
If a school exceeds the cap for a season, then it would be punished by losing transfer slots, and possibly scholarship slots. If, on the other hand, a school were to fall below 80% of a pre-established “NIL Roster Floor” for two consecutive seasons, it would be relegated to the Under League until it could sustain a full season above the floor.
College Football ‘Super League’ Pitch Deck Details Breakaway Plan
A document distributed in February by College Sports Tomorrow laid out a proposed "NIL Salary Cap" and a breakdown of its seven geographic divisions.
www.sportico.com
Who actually has the primary marketing data that states that a small collections of the "best" college teams will be a profitable move for the big media folks.
I am only one person and I have very strong feelings about this AND I might be rather tainted in my selective hearing of friends from other programs, BUT....
I have not heard even ONE person that says, "I'll watch a 20 team league that my team is not a part of." Reasoning for that is "why would I watch an NFL lite? We already have the NFL. If I want to watch "better" football than my team, I'll hit up the NFL."
The ONLY reason I watch any of those 20 teams now is becuase they have some relationship to my team, ISU. If they were in some other league, I would not care whatsoever about them. I would not watch them and I'd bet a large amount, probably way over 50% of the fans of the also-rans would follow suit. A perfect example of this is the NCAA tournament and the scramble I (and I bet most of you) have trying to educate myself on the winner of the Upper Northwestern Meridian Confernece. I don't watch them for the same reason. But the fans of those conference teams probably watch the heck out of those games and MAYBE their local big schools. And if they DO watch those bigger schools, they are probably UNI fans and aren't really UNI fans if you know what I mean.
So they already have an alliance to a "larger" school and will then follow suit with us other also-ran fans.
It is possible that I am the anomaly and most fans just want better college football that has nothing to do with anything they care about, but not the pros because they can't easily relate to them like they can the school that they didn't attend or can't afford to buy tickets to.
Like I said, who has the marketing data that suggests this makes any sense at all? Yes, America demands and spends a TON on really high level football for the sake of high level football, that's the NFL. If there was space for a significantly lower league the NFL would have an established counterpart.
IMHO, if they try to squish the college game down to 20 teams, they will end up with the fans of 20 teams plus MAYBE 5% from every other team tops. That does not seem as profitable as leaving it the way it is.
Please enlighten me. I am open to learning.
I am only one person and I have very strong feelings about this AND I might be rather tainted in my selective hearing of friends from other programs, BUT....
I have not heard even ONE person that says, "I'll watch a 20 team league that my team is not a part of." Reasoning for that is "why would I watch an NFL lite? We already have the NFL. If I want to watch "better" football than my team, I'll hit up the NFL."
The ONLY reason I watch any of those 20 teams now is becuase they have some relationship to my team, ISU. If they were in some other league, I would not care whatsoever about them. I would not watch them and I'd bet a large amount, probably way over 50% of the fans of the also-rans would follow suit. A perfect example of this is the NCAA tournament and the scramble I (and I bet most of you) have trying to educate myself on the winner of the Upper Northwestern Meridian Confernece. I don't watch them for the same reason. But the fans of those conference teams probably watch the heck out of those games and MAYBE their local big schools. And if they DO watch those bigger schools, they are probably UNI fans and aren't really UNI fans if you know what I mean.
So they already have an alliance to a "larger" school and will then follow suit with us other also-ran fans.
It is possible that I am the anomaly and most fans just want better college football that has nothing to do with anything they care about, but not the pros because they can't easily relate to them like they can the school that they didn't attend or can't afford to buy tickets to.
Like I said, who has the marketing data that suggests this makes any sense at all? Yes, America demands and spends a TON on really high level football for the sake of high level football, that's the NFL. If there was space for a significantly lower league the NFL would have an established counterpart.
IMHO, if they try to squish the college game down to 20 teams, they will end up with the fans of 20 teams plus MAYBE 5% from every other team tops. That does not seem as profitable as leaving it the way it is.
Please enlighten me. I am open to learning.
No one with a brain has ever suggested going to a 20 team for those exact reasons.
But many keep bringing it back up. They MUST have some sort of marketing research support for it. Right?
Now, where I do agree with them is that big media WILL absolutely rig everything to get the biggest / (richest/dumbest = easily separated from their cash) fan bases what they want so they can optimize the profits. But, they need the sheep to draw the money from to pay them. Eliminate the sheep and there is nothing to pay the wolves.
Topic 2. How much do the wolves like getting slaughtered? They won't accept that for very long.
Who keeps bringing it up besides message board posters and random people on Twitter? No one important that has any influence.
Where is topic 2 coming from?
1) Yeah, that's what I am saying. We need to just give up on the P2. The Big Media are going to screw the "lesser" conferences but they are not going to get rid of them for both of my points.
1) The people won't watch if they don't have any skin in the game and
2) Those that are winning need someone to win against and other those that are winningers won't put up with it and stop watching (they are weak.) Then you lose what little watchers you had.
These 2 points are reasons we need to stop talking about the Big Media trying to eliminate us.
NOW, will they do whatever they can to make the most money as possible. Well Duh!
That means they will screw the "lesser" conferences somewhat as they see where the money is. But eliminate or exclude, that's not happening.
Yeah, there are signed contracts in place and neither side can just walk away from those contracts without substantial penalties. I’m sure ESPN and Fox like the current arrangement where they are paying less than they would have to in the Super League proposal and they can pull strings behind the scenes to get the matchups and ratings they want.
Or maybe someday someone with crazy wealth like Elon will step in and buy everyone out and make it worth everyone’s while to accept the proposed Super League framework. It would probably be cheaper than how much he lost on Twitter when he wasn’t happy with how that was being run.
Agreed. There are already enough lawsuits working their way through the courts to effectively doom the current system. Even the biggest proponents of the current system agree it can’t go on much longer, we just have no idea if the new system will require an evolutionary or a revolutionary change and we don’t know if the new system will be here in 1yr or 5yrs or longer.
Patrick Crakes and Bill Hancock (and I believe Bob Thompson) have said on 365 Sports that people will watch a Super League ("and will love it" per Patrick Crakes). I disagree. Crakes said it will be about a 30 team league and that people watching college football are not affiliated with the teams. When the 365 Sports guys pointed out the Super League soccer failed in Europe due to the fans, Crakes said it was just delayed and will happen.
