16 and ISU would not make sense for the Big 10.
If there really are 4 leagues of 18-20 teams, any solution with ISU not grouped with the Big Ten teams really doesn't make sense.
Hypothetical (and it could go numerous ways):
ND - national add for B10
Missou, a VA team, an Eastern team or two, an NC team or two.
That still leaves them 2-4 teams. They've become gigantic geographically and TV market to the point where they'd prefer just taking another school with BCS facilities that is a quality school and a good geographic fit. Plus other leagues would be expanding and they'd just run out of good options.
4, 16 team leagues, and ISU is most likely one of the 5 current BCS/ND/BYU teams that gets purged (69 teams right now, 64 spots). If not purged, slight chance at being in some Big East/Big 12 coalition survival.
4 18-20 team leagues and ISU is most likely with the Big Ten schools.
I really don't see us going to the Big 10 in any scenario, but other than that I agree with your post. Here's how I see the odds
Four 16 team superconferences: 80% chance ISU gets left in the cold
Four 18 team superconferences: 30% change ISU gets left in the cold
Four 20 team superconferences: less than 5% chance ISU gets left in the cold
16 teams is bad for us because there are more than 64 BCS schools right now, and the lower tier Big 10, SEC, and Pac-12 teams are all safe. 18 teams is better, but we couldn't be confident that we'd get the call over some Big East schools that bring more TV sets. At 20 teams you're to the point where every school that has the infrastructure in place to play big time college football will be there, at that includes ISU.
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