Somehow, I think you are very close to reality on this. There is no logical reason for this to be the truth, but everything we're hearing from Rebecacy and from JP publicly (not much) says to me that not only have we had a plan in place for a while now, but it is done pending all of the formal maneuvering.
Baylor is the only one making a lot of noise. What that tells me is this:
1) The Big XII is done, and it's just a matter of time formally.
2) There is a landing spot for all schools other than Baylor that's already been worked out. No one else is going public with their displeasure.
3) The only ways I can see that happening is this:
OU, OSU, TX, TT - Pac
MU, KU, KSU, ISU - Big East with WV to SEC (or KU, KSU, ISU to Big East with MU to SEC)
Baylor - left alone on the outside, MWC/CUSA
- or - the nightmare situation happens where the Pac/B1G/SEC/ACC all try to get to 16, and we end up in the B1G along with ND, Pitt, and Rutgers, with the other Big East schools ending up split to the SEC, ACC, and non-BCS land.
My prediction: we will know this all by the end of the week. Honestly, this is what I'm coming to after reading this all.
I trust GG and JP to do what's best for us, whatever happens.