Re: brokenloginagain -- "Texas has beat a top50 RPI team. we haven't.
True, but the record "vs. RPI" tends to trump RPI itself. More accurately, winning percentage vs. RPI top 25/50/100.
It seems to make little sense — and if tournament field were announced today, would be a disadvantage for ISU — but it's actually a more accurate way to assess resumes, when there's not enough direct comparison.
* A team could have comparative advantage by extension of its opponents' performance, but have a less-tangible performance in head-to-head competition against quality opponents. This is partly why (at this point) Iowa State is getting a decent RPI and bubble consideration. Most of the losses came against high RPI teams. But you can't expect to feed off that exclusively.
* Suppose you were comparing teams with no common opponents, with extreme variance in SOS (that is, the opportunity to notch quality wins; and risk of bad losses was much less likely). Suppose it's ISU and Northern Arizona. ISU plays 12 games vs. RPI top 100, and goes 4-8. NAU plays five, and goes 1-4. What if NAU's one win was vs. top 25, and Iowa State went 1-6?
If those examples seem to "tilt" against Iowa State in the current situation, you could flip the examples upside down. But think about it this way: You could probably make a case to send 9 teams from the Big East or 8 from Big Ten if the tournament field were announced today, simply because those were seen as the "premiere" powers this season.
True, but the record "vs. RPI" tends to trump RPI itself. More accurately, winning percentage vs. RPI top 25/50/100.
It seems to make little sense — and if tournament field were announced today, would be a disadvantage for ISU — but it's actually a more accurate way to assess resumes, when there's not enough direct comparison.
* A team could have comparative advantage by extension of its opponents' performance, but have a less-tangible performance in head-to-head competition against quality opponents. This is partly why (at this point) Iowa State is getting a decent RPI and bubble consideration. Most of the losses came against high RPI teams. But you can't expect to feed off that exclusively.
* Suppose you were comparing teams with no common opponents, with extreme variance in SOS (that is, the opportunity to notch quality wins; and risk of bad losses was much less likely). Suppose it's ISU and Northern Arizona. ISU plays 12 games vs. RPI top 100, and goes 4-8. NAU plays five, and goes 1-4. What if NAU's one win was vs. top 25, and Iowa State went 1-6?
If those examples seem to "tilt" against Iowa State in the current situation, you could flip the examples upside down. But think about it this way: You could probably make a case to send 9 teams from the Big East or 8 from Big Ten if the tournament field were announced today, simply because those were seen as the "premiere" powers this season.
