Jerry Palm has us OUT
- Thread starter cped
- Start date
I don't know what OU did to game the RPI so well this year, but hopefully JP/CFH have taken note. It's ridiculous how much the selection process depends on that outdated metric. Sagarin's ELO Score and ESPN's BPI are much better resume (not predictive, like Sagarin's Predictor or KenPom) metrics, and they have OU at 37/41 (ISU at 43/34), either which makes a ton more sense than 17. OU deserves a bid, but you can bet that they're going to be seeded way higher than they should.
/rantover
/rantover
Eh, I don't think its a big deal to be out now. Our schedule sets itself up in a way that our bid would be earned the next few weeks, not the last few. Baylor, OU on the road, Okie State and KU at home, those are 4 tourney resume type games. IMO that is the stretch we were going to earn it anyway, I'm confident we will.
Where it gets tricky with the bubble in my opinion is if we go 3-3 over that stretch. Might end up being a make or break game in the Big 12 tourney then.
Lose @ Baylor
Beat Tech & Kansas
Lose @ Oklahoma
Win @ West Virginia
Lose vs Oklahoma St
I don't find it surprising that some will have ISU out. Let's face it. This team can finish the regular season anywhere from 1-5 to 6-0 and a valid argument could be made for each and every record. The only "sure" win is likely Texas Tech at home and they just played pretty well against WVU on the road.
When a team wins a close game at home against an opponent, it is more likely than not that they will lose to that team on the road in the same season. Now, ISU beat Oklahoma soundly in Ames, beat Baylor pretty well, but just got by WVU on a last second shot. Baylor is 5-1 at home in conference, the only loss being to OU by 3. They beat Okie State at home. With the way ISU has played on the road, I think it could be argued that their best chance for a win will be at Oklahoma. Of course, OU is also 5-1 at home in conference having beaten both KU and Okie State at home, and losing only to K-State by 2.
At home, ISU has Tech, plus games against 2 of the top 3 teams in conference. The home and home rule favors ISU in those games, since ISU lost close games to those teams on the road. Also, ISU likely will still have the home streak going for it when KU comes to town. A negative factor for ISU is that both Okie State and KU are probably going to still be in the hunt for the conference championship when they play ISU.
So, some of the "experts" no doubt are going to see ISU finishing 1-5 or 2-4. I think it is as easy, maybe even easier to make a case for that than it is to make a case for something better.
When a team wins a close game at home against an opponent, it is more likely than not that they will lose to that team on the road in the same season. Now, ISU beat Oklahoma soundly in Ames, beat Baylor pretty well, but just got by WVU on a last second shot. Baylor is 5-1 at home in conference, the only loss being to OU by 3. They beat Okie State at home. With the way ISU has played on the road, I think it could be argued that their best chance for a win will be at Oklahoma. Of course, OU is also 5-1 at home in conference having beaten both KU and Okie State at home, and losing only to K-State by 2.
At home, ISU has Tech, plus games against 2 of the top 3 teams in conference. The home and home rule favors ISU in those games, since ISU lost close games to those teams on the road. Also, ISU likely will still have the home streak going for it when KU comes to town. A negative factor for ISU is that both Okie State and KU are probably going to still be in the hunt for the conference championship when they play ISU.
So, some of the "experts" no doubt are going to see ISU finishing 1-5 or 2-4. I think it is as easy, maybe even easier to make a case for that than it is to make a case for something better.
I really think if we can go 3-3 to finish out.. we are still in. It's going to be really close this year.
No matter what happens I just hope we can win a game or 2 in KC. Im sick of going down for a one and done. Hopefully this is the year.
No matter what happens I just hope we can win a game or 2 in KC. Im sick of going down for a one and done. Hopefully this is the year.
Exactly. And should the upcoming BU game not go well for ISU, I would expect that to trigger some more "ISU out" predictions from the "experts" in the time between the BU and KU games...
Handily? It was the biggest margin of victory in the history of the series I believe. That game was a laugher. We have to beat Baylor this week, but ISU is a better team than OU.
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This is my problem with people on this board. We have lost alot of road games. But we were not soundly beat in any of them. They honestly should have beat OSU, KU, and UT on the road. My thought is this team is due for a road win. Not destined to lose. The results of those road games suggests the former, not the later.
Regarding OU: Yes, in, and, believe or not, in the 7 range (although with bracketing rules, that could just be an 8 that got moved up a line).
Once you start looking closely at teams, beyond the top 4 or 5 seeds, flaws begin to show up right and left. It's a reason Palm has ISU out, even though I think it's more like a non-play-in 10 or 11.
The difference between a solid at-large and teams that are fringe-bubble is not extremely large.
Once you start looking closely at teams, beyond the top 4 or 5 seeds, flaws begin to show up right and left. It's a reason Palm has ISU out, even though I think it's more like a non-play-in 10 or 11.
The difference between a solid at-large and teams that are fringe-bubble is not extremely large.
Bad thing is I think another bubble team will be Iowa (look at their remaining and they could make a nice run)
We have nothing to blame but ourselves.....4 wins in the bag and we lossed all 4
Texas Tech we showed up with no heart beat and still should have won.
KU
OSU
Texas
Texas Tech
SO lets say we win 2 of those games.
we are 19-6.
We need to finish.
#1. I just want in the tourney.
#2. I don't want that stupid 8/9 seed. Give me 10,11,12 over that game.
We have nothing to blame but ourselves.....4 wins in the bag and we lossed all 4
Texas Tech we showed up with no heart beat and still should have won.
KU
OSU
Texas
Texas Tech
SO lets say we win 2 of those games.
we are 19-6.
We need to finish.
#1. I just want in the tourney.
#2. I don't want that stupid 8/9 seed. Give me 10,11,12 over that game.
Regarding OU: Yes, in, and, believe or not, in the 7 range (although with bracketing rules, that could just be an 8 that got moved up a line).
Once you start looking closely at teams, beyond the top 4 or 5 seeds, flaws begin to show up right and left. It's a reason Palm has ISU out, even though I think it's more like a non-play-in 10 or 11.
The difference between a solid at-large and teams that are fringe-bubble is not extremely large.
Once you start looking closely at teams, beyond the top 4 or 5 seeds, flaws begin to show up right and left. It's a reason Palm has ISU out, even though I think it's more like a non-play-in 10 or 11.
The difference between a solid at-large and teams that are fringe-bubble is not extremely large.
