Jerry Palm has us OUT

acgclone

Well-Known Member
Feb 21, 2007
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If we win out at home, I think we have a 60-70% chance of getting in. Add in a good road win against OU or Baylor and we're locked.

Beat either BU or OU on the road, and split the OSU/KU games, and we're probably in as well.
 

TurbulentEddie

Active Member
Nov 16, 2012
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I don't know what OU did to game the RPI so well this year, but hopefully JP/CFH have taken note. It's ridiculous how much the selection process depends on that outdated metric. Sagarin's ELO Score and ESPN's BPI are much better resume (not predictive, like Sagarin's Predictor or KenPom) metrics, and they have OU at 37/41 (ISU at 43/34), either which makes a ton more sense than 17. OU deserves a bid, but you can bet that they're going to be seeded way higher than they should.

/rantover
 

heitclone

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Jun 21, 2009
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Eh, I don't think its a big deal to be out now. Our schedule sets itself up in a way that our bid would be earned the next few weeks, not the last few. Baylor, OU on the road, Okie State and KU at home, those are 4 tourney resume type games. IMO that is the stretch we were going to earn it anyway, I'm confident we will.
 

cped

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Feb 3, 2012
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Eh, I don't think its a big deal to be out now. Our schedule sets itself up in a way that our bid would be earned the next few weeks, not the last few. Baylor, OU on the road, Okie State and KU at home, those are 4 tourney resume type games. IMO that is the stretch we were going to earn it anyway, I'm confident we will.

Where it gets tricky with the bubble in my opinion is if we go 3-3 over that stretch. Might end up being a make or break game in the Big 12 tourney then.

Lose @ Baylor

Beat Tech & Kansas

Lose @ Oklahoma

Win @ West Virginia

Lose vs Oklahoma St
 

Dryburn

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Apr 3, 2006
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I don't find it surprising that some will have ISU out. Let's face it. This team can finish the regular season anywhere from 1-5 to 6-0 and a valid argument could be made for each and every record. The only "sure" win is likely Texas Tech at home and they just played pretty well against WVU on the road.

When a team wins a close game at home against an opponent, it is more likely than not that they will lose to that team on the road in the same season. Now, ISU beat Oklahoma soundly in Ames, beat Baylor pretty well, but just got by WVU on a last second shot. Baylor is 5-1 at home in conference, the only loss being to OU by 3. They beat Okie State at home. With the way ISU has played on the road, I think it could be argued that their best chance for a win will be at Oklahoma. Of course, OU is also 5-1 at home in conference having beaten both KU and Okie State at home, and losing only to K-State by 2.

At home, ISU has Tech, plus games against 2 of the top 3 teams in conference. The home and home rule favors ISU in those games, since ISU lost close games to those teams on the road. Also, ISU likely will still have the home streak going for it when KU comes to town. A negative factor for ISU is that both Okie State and KU are probably going to still be in the hunt for the conference championship when they play ISU.

So, some of the "experts" no doubt are going to see ISU finishing 1-5 or 2-4. I think it is as easy, maybe even easier to make a case for that than it is to make a case for something better.
 

ajk4st8

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Mar 27, 2006
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I really think if we can go 3-3 to finish out.. we are still in. It's going to be really close this year.

No matter what happens I just hope we can win a game or 2 in KC. Im sick of going down for a one and done. Hopefully this is the year.
 

jbhtexas

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Oct 20, 2006
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So, some of the "experts" no doubt are going to see ISU finishing 1-5 or 2-4. I think it is as easy, maybe even easier to make a case for that than it is to make a case for something better.

Exactly. And should the upcoming BU game not go well for ISU, I would expect that to trigger some more "ISU out" predictions from the "experts" in the time between the BU and KU games...
 

greatshu

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Minnesota is 4th seed and Illinois is 7th seed. Minnesota and Illinois are 6-7 in Big10. Wow, I really don't agree with anything he says.
 

brett108

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May 1, 2010
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Some folks are such homers though that they believe we should be ahead of Oklahoma simply because we beat them handily at Hilton.
Handily? It was the biggest margin of victory in the history of the series I believe. That game was a laugher. We have to beat Baylor this week, but ISU is a better team than OU.
 
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brett108

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May 1, 2010
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I don't find it surprising that some will have ISU out. Let's face it. This team can finish the regular season anywhere from 1-5 to 6-0 and a valid argument could be made for each and every record. The only "sure" win is likely Texas Tech at home and they just played pretty well against WVU on the road.

When a team wins a close game at home against an opponent, it is more likely than not that they will lose to that team on the road in the same season. Now, ISU beat Oklahoma soundly in Ames, beat Baylor pretty well, but just got by WVU on a last second shot. Baylor is 5-1 at home in conference, the only loss being to OU by 3. They beat Okie State at home. With the way ISU has played on the road, I think it could be argued that their best chance for a win will be at Oklahoma. Of course, OU is also 5-1 at home in conference having beaten both KU and Okie State at home, and losing only to K-State by 2.

At home, ISU has Tech, plus games against 2 of the top 3 teams in conference. The home and home rule favors ISU in those games, since ISU lost close games to those teams on the road. Also, ISU likely will still have the home streak going for it when KU comes to town. A negative factor for ISU is that both Okie State and KU are probably going to still be in the hunt for the conference championship when they play ISU.

So, some of the "experts" no doubt are going to see ISU finishing 1-5 or 2-4. I think it is as easy, maybe even easier to make a case for that than it is to make a case for something better.

This is my problem with people on this board. We have lost alot of road games. But we were not soundly beat in any of them. They honestly should have beat OSU, KU, and UT on the road. My thought is this team is due for a road win. Not destined to lose. The results of those road games suggests the former, not the later.
 

mjhavlo76

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Jun 23, 2009
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Oh. It's coming from Jerry Palm so it MUST be true! He is a college hoops God!
 

greatshu

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and he says KU is 4th seed. KU = Minnesota? Not even close.
 

awd4cy

Well-Known Member
Dec 29, 2010
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Why wouldn't he have OU in? We are 17-8, they are 16-8. They have a road win at Baylor and a home win over Kansas, both wins we can't match. And that is not even mentioning their #17 RPI & #4 SOS (per ESPN). They also don't have a bad loss. Regardless of the fact that I believe we are a much better team then they are, barring a collapse they will make the tournament.

I think Stephen F. Austin would qualify as a bad loss.
 

cyclones500

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Jan 29, 2010
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Regarding OU: Yes, in, and, believe or not, in the 7 range (although with bracketing rules, that could just be an 8 that got moved up a line).

Once you start looking closely at teams, beyond the top 4 or 5 seeds, flaws begin to show up right and left. It's a reason Palm has ISU out, even though I think it's more like a non-play-in 10 or 11.

The difference between a solid at-large and teams that are fringe-bubble is not extremely large.
 

HandSanitizer

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Apr 19, 2006
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Bad thing is I think another bubble team will be Iowa (look at their remaining and they could make a nice run)

We have nothing to blame but ourselves.....4 wins in the bag and we lossed all 4
Texas Tech we showed up with no heart beat and still should have won.
KU
OSU
Texas
Texas Tech

SO lets say we win 2 of those games.
we are 19-6.
We need to finish.

#1. I just want in the tourney.
#2. I don't want that stupid 8/9 seed. Give me 10,11,12 over that game.
 

cyclones500

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Jan 29, 2010
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Regarding OU: Yes, in, and, believe or not, in the 7 range (although with bracketing rules, that could just be an 8 that got moved up a line).

Once you start looking closely at teams, beyond the top 4 or 5 seeds, flaws begin to show up right and left. It's a reason Palm has ISU out, even though I think it's more like a non-play-in 10 or 11.

The difference between a solid at-large and teams that are fringe-bubble is not extremely large.
 

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