Depends on how ridiculous you think 12-15 spots is, and that is of course assuming A LOT.
***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter CarlHungus
- Start date
Depends on how ridiculous you think 12-15 spots is, and that is of course assuming A LOT.
If Iowa's non-conference SOS (314) wasn't so atrocious, Hawks might be somewhere on the bubble fringe.
A top-25 win (Minnesota) and another top-50 (Wisconsin) is OK. Next best win is Iowa State. Three sub-100 losses, but those aren't a killer in themselves.
Iowa's at-large hopes are in the vicinity of teams like Air Force, Texas A&M, Washington, Stanford, Providence and Wyoming.
A top-25 win (Minnesota) and another top-50 (Wisconsin) is OK. Next best win is Iowa State. Three sub-100 losses, but those aren't a killer in themselves.
Iowa's at-large hopes are in the vicinity of teams like Air Force, Texas A&M, Washington, Stanford, Providence and Wyoming.
Iowa's interesting because of the large gap between their Sagarin, KenPom rankings and RPI ranking. They would be in fairly easily based on their mid 30's rankings in the predictive ranking systems. The only reason they are so low in RPI is because of the number of low major (250 or worse) teams they played in the non-conf season, this shows why it's so important to play the RPI game (or why RPI is a flawed ranking system depending on your POV).
So the RPI is flawed and the KenPom and Sagarin are accurate? People can say whatever they want about playing 250+ RPI teams in their non conf but who says they wouldn't have gotten beat once or twice more if they would have been playing better teams. They dug their own grave and put themselves in that position, combine that with having one of the weakest B1G schedules in their conference means their bubble talks should have been put to rest last weekend.
KenPom and Sagarin are more accurate in predicting tournament performance, so yes they are more accurate than RPI.
And Iowa actually has the 6th toughest B10 schedule at this point, so it's right in the middle of the pack.
Iowa has the weakest SOS of anyone in the B1G, and only a tougher schedule than TCU and TT from the Big 12.
Next four wins and they will be back in the mix since most bubble teams are breaking even in their four games.
I would pick Providence out of that group to get in based on how they are playing now.
Why the hell do I ever check out Jerry Palm's bracket?
No ISU, yet he has UMASS, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Villanova?!
Does he watch basketball or just pretend he does? The UMASS pick just blows my mind. Seriously?!
No ISU, yet he has UMASS, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Villanova?!
Does he watch basketball or just pretend he does? The UMASS pick just blows my mind. Seriously?!
We have to win two games. Until then, Jerry's picks will blow. You know they tighten up their choices to matchg more in the last week. The cutesy pick like UMASS goes away near the end. it is our charter to win two games if we do not want to fade away.
2006... LOL!
[video=youtube;5ktjk9HsnMA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ktjk9HsnMA[/video]
Thanks, I was speaking for the rank of conference SOS for Iowa being 6th right now but that is a solid article.
My Bubble Watch/Bracketology (3/4/13)
Underline=Projected Auto Bid, Bold=Lock, Italics=Should be in Green=On Bubble, but in, Red=On Bubble, but out
America East(1): Stony Brook- The Seawolves open conference tourney play against Binghamton on Saturday.
Atlantic 10(4): Butler, Saint Louis, VCU, La Salle, Temple, UMass- VCU joins Butler and Saint Louis as locks after VCU destroyed Butler over the weekend. La Salle still has those two wins vs. Butler and at VCU and little else. Temple has won five in a row, and they have moved on the right side of the bubble. If they beat VCU on Sunday, they'll likely be in the NCAA tourney. UMass has a huge opportunity at home Thursday night vs. Butler, but they still have only one top 50 RPI win (at La Salle), and a couple of questionable losses. Charlotte is finished after losing four straight by 17 points or more.
ACC(5): Miami(FL), Duke, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland- NC State should be fine with their strong computer numbers and solid victories. North Carolina has won five in a row, and they should have no problem making the tournament. If they beat Duke at home, they are a lock. I was close to moving Virginia to "should be in" after beating Duke, then they lost at Boston College. I still think they'll make it unless they completely fall apart, but with 7 questionable losses to go along with a 7-2 RPI Top 100 record, they could have some trouble. Maryland stayed alive in the bubble chase after beating Wake Forest, but have two tough games to finish vs. North Carolina and at Virginia.
Atlantic Sun(1)- Mercer- The Bears start with Lipscomb in the A-Sun tournament on Wednesday.
Big 12(5)- Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor- Oklahoma joins the top 3 as locks after beating Iowa State at home. With strong computer numbers, they will get in. If Iowa State beats Oklahoma State and West Virginia, they should be in pretty good shape. Baylor has a huge opportunity vs. Kansas on Saturday but must get past Texas tonight or else they will likely be finished.
Big East(8)- Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Villanova- Cincinnati picked up a much-needed victory vs. UConn on Saturday and should be fine as long as they don't lose to South Florida. A win at Louisville locks them in. Villanova came so close to putting themselves on the right side of the bubble, but they lost to Pittsburgh. They have three great wins in conference(vs. Syracuse, vs. Louisville, vs. Marquette), but they also lost at Seton Hall and vs. Columbia(RPI-261). Huge opportunity Saturday vs. Georgetown.
Big Sky(1)- Montana- Montana leads by a half game over Weber State with 3 games to go until conference tournament time.
Big South(1)- Charleston Southern- Charleston Southern and High Point won their divisions, but Charleston Southern owns the tiebreaker. No matter who wins this conference, the winner will likely end up in one of the First Four games.
Big Ten(7)- Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois- No real bubble drama here except maybe Iowa pulling off a miracle run to the finals of the Big Ten tourney.
Big West(1)- Long Beach State- The 49ers might be slipping a little bit after losing at UC-Irvine over the weekend, but for now they are still projected as the auto bid.
CAA(1)- Northeastern- It's really anyone's guess who's going to win the CAA this year as Northeastern has fallen back to everyone else. This conference tourney should be very interesting.
Conference USA(1)- Memphis, Southern Miss- Even if Memphis loses early in the Conference USA tournament, they should be fine for an at-large bid. Southern Miss still doesn't have a win against a Top 50 opponent, and their best win is vs. Denver, but they could still make it as an at-large with bloated computer numbers and everyone else on the bubble losing.
Horizon(1)- Valparaiso- Valpo won the regular season title in the Horizon, but Detroit has more upside with more talent than Valparaiso. We'll see how the conference tourney plays out.
Ivy(1)- Princeton- The Tigers jump into the driver's seat for the Auto bid after beating Harvard, and then Harvard lost to Pennsylvania.
MAAC(1)- Niagara- Niagara won the regular season title, but realistically any one of the top six in the conference could win this tourney.
MAC(1)- Akron- The Zips' at-large hopes took a huge hit by losing at Buffalo on Saturday. They may have to win the conference tournament or maybe make the final to feel safe.
MEAC(1)- Norfolk State- The Spartans look to finish their season undefeated in conference.
Missouri Valley(2)- Creighton, Wichita State- After Doug McDermott torched Wichita State on Saturday, the Bluejays won the MVC regular season title and locked themselves into the NCAA tourney. Unless Wichita State embarrasses themselves in the first round or someone pulls off a run to the MVC tourney title, there will be two teams from the MVC playing in the NCAA tournament.
Mountain West(5)- New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State- The Aztecs had their chance to lock themselves in last weekend, but they lost to New Mexico so they're still in the "should be in" category for now. If they beat Air Force and win at Boise State, they will be a lock for the NCAA tournament. Boise State really helped their cause this weekend by winning vs. Colorado State. They have a tough finish to their season with games at UNLV and vs. San Diego State. Air Force is eliminated after losing at Fresno State last weekend.
Northeast(1)- Robert Morris- Robert Morris won the regular season title and begin their conference tourney against St. Francis(NY) on Wednesday.
Ohio Valley(1)- Belmont- The Bruins would be best if they don't lose early in their conference tourney, which starts this week.
Pac-12(5)- Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona, Colorado- California and UCLA locked up their spots into the NCAA tournament with wins vs. Colorado and Arizona respectively. Speaking of Colorado, the Buffaloes should be fine with strong computer numbers and victories over Colorado State, California, at Oregon, and Arizona. Arizona State is likely finished in the at-large discussion after losing to an improving USC team unless they make a run to the finals of the Pac-12 tournament.
Patriot(1)- Bucknell- The Bison won the regular season title, and they begin their conference tourney against Navy.
SEC(4)- Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas- Does anyone in the SEC want to make the NCAA tournament? Missouri should be fine with solid wins vs. Florida, Illinois, and VCU. Tennessee got swept by Georgia over the weekend, but they are in for now after beating Florida last week. Kentucky lost to Arkansas by 13 on the road. Alabama lost to Florida which is forgivable. Ole Miss however dropped a game at Mississippi State, who only has 7 scholarship players. Arkansas is really good at home, but they are only 2-10 in road/neutral games.
Southern(1)- Davidson- The Wildcats dominated the Southern Conference this season, and they should be the huge favorites alongside Charleston for the conference tourney title.
Southland(1)- Stephen F. Austin- The Lumberjacks reclaimed control of the conference after winning by 1 vs. Northwestern State on Saturday.
SWAC(1)- Texas Southern- Texas Southern's the hottest team in the SWAC, but let's be real. Any team can win this conference tourney besides winless Grambling State.
Summit(1)- South Dakota State- The Jackrabbits closed out the regular season with a win at Omaha and the regular season title. They face IUPUI to begin conference tournament play.
Sun Belt(1)- Middle Tennessee State- The Blue Raiders are the class of the Sun Belt, but I believe they still have to win their conference tournament to be safe because they really haven't played anybody in conference.
WCC(2)- Gonzaga, Saint Mary's- The Gaels may not have won any marquee games besides Creighton, but they are in pretty good shape due to other bubble teams losing.
WAC(1)- Louisiana Tech- Louisiana Tech is close to a perfect season in the WAC, but tough road games loom against New Mexico State and Denver.
Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Virginia
Villanova
Tennessee
First Four Out:
Kentucky
Alabama
Baylor
Maryland
Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Ole Miss
UMass
Arkansas
8 spots for 16 teams.
Underline=Projected Auto Bid, Bold=Lock, Italics=Should be in Green=On Bubble, but in, Red=On Bubble, but out
America East(1): Stony Brook- The Seawolves open conference tourney play against Binghamton on Saturday.
Atlantic 10(4): Butler, Saint Louis, VCU, La Salle, Temple, UMass- VCU joins Butler and Saint Louis as locks after VCU destroyed Butler over the weekend. La Salle still has those two wins vs. Butler and at VCU and little else. Temple has won five in a row, and they have moved on the right side of the bubble. If they beat VCU on Sunday, they'll likely be in the NCAA tourney. UMass has a huge opportunity at home Thursday night vs. Butler, but they still have only one top 50 RPI win (at La Salle), and a couple of questionable losses. Charlotte is finished after losing four straight by 17 points or more.
ACC(5): Miami(FL), Duke, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland- NC State should be fine with their strong computer numbers and solid victories. North Carolina has won five in a row, and they should have no problem making the tournament. If they beat Duke at home, they are a lock. I was close to moving Virginia to "should be in" after beating Duke, then they lost at Boston College. I still think they'll make it unless they completely fall apart, but with 7 questionable losses to go along with a 7-2 RPI Top 100 record, they could have some trouble. Maryland stayed alive in the bubble chase after beating Wake Forest, but have two tough games to finish vs. North Carolina and at Virginia.
Atlantic Sun(1)- Mercer- The Bears start with Lipscomb in the A-Sun tournament on Wednesday.
Big 12(5)- Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor- Oklahoma joins the top 3 as locks after beating Iowa State at home. With strong computer numbers, they will get in. If Iowa State beats Oklahoma State and West Virginia, they should be in pretty good shape. Baylor has a huge opportunity vs. Kansas on Saturday but must get past Texas tonight or else they will likely be finished.
Big East(8)- Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Villanova- Cincinnati picked up a much-needed victory vs. UConn on Saturday and should be fine as long as they don't lose to South Florida. A win at Louisville locks them in. Villanova came so close to putting themselves on the right side of the bubble, but they lost to Pittsburgh. They have three great wins in conference(vs. Syracuse, vs. Louisville, vs. Marquette), but they also lost at Seton Hall and vs. Columbia(RPI-261). Huge opportunity Saturday vs. Georgetown.
Big Sky(1)- Montana- Montana leads by a half game over Weber State with 3 games to go until conference tournament time.
Big South(1)- Charleston Southern- Charleston Southern and High Point won their divisions, but Charleston Southern owns the tiebreaker. No matter who wins this conference, the winner will likely end up in one of the First Four games.
Big Ten(7)- Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois- No real bubble drama here except maybe Iowa pulling off a miracle run to the finals of the Big Ten tourney.
Big West(1)- Long Beach State- The 49ers might be slipping a little bit after losing at UC-Irvine over the weekend, but for now they are still projected as the auto bid.
CAA(1)- Northeastern- It's really anyone's guess who's going to win the CAA this year as Northeastern has fallen back to everyone else. This conference tourney should be very interesting.
Conference USA(1)- Memphis, Southern Miss- Even if Memphis loses early in the Conference USA tournament, they should be fine for an at-large bid. Southern Miss still doesn't have a win against a Top 50 opponent, and their best win is vs. Denver, but they could still make it as an at-large with bloated computer numbers and everyone else on the bubble losing.
Horizon(1)- Valparaiso- Valpo won the regular season title in the Horizon, but Detroit has more upside with more talent than Valparaiso. We'll see how the conference tourney plays out.
Ivy(1)- Princeton- The Tigers jump into the driver's seat for the Auto bid after beating Harvard, and then Harvard lost to Pennsylvania.
MAAC(1)- Niagara- Niagara won the regular season title, but realistically any one of the top six in the conference could win this tourney.
MAC(1)- Akron- The Zips' at-large hopes took a huge hit by losing at Buffalo on Saturday. They may have to win the conference tournament or maybe make the final to feel safe.
MEAC(1)- Norfolk State- The Spartans look to finish their season undefeated in conference.
Missouri Valley(2)- Creighton, Wichita State- After Doug McDermott torched Wichita State on Saturday, the Bluejays won the MVC regular season title and locked themselves into the NCAA tourney. Unless Wichita State embarrasses themselves in the first round or someone pulls off a run to the MVC tourney title, there will be two teams from the MVC playing in the NCAA tournament.
Mountain West(5)- New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State- The Aztecs had their chance to lock themselves in last weekend, but they lost to New Mexico so they're still in the "should be in" category for now. If they beat Air Force and win at Boise State, they will be a lock for the NCAA tournament. Boise State really helped their cause this weekend by winning vs. Colorado State. They have a tough finish to their season with games at UNLV and vs. San Diego State. Air Force is eliminated after losing at Fresno State last weekend.
Northeast(1)- Robert Morris- Robert Morris won the regular season title and begin their conference tourney against St. Francis(NY) on Wednesday.
Ohio Valley(1)- Belmont- The Bruins would be best if they don't lose early in their conference tourney, which starts this week.
Pac-12(5)- Oregon, UCLA, California, Arizona, Colorado- California and UCLA locked up their spots into the NCAA tournament with wins vs. Colorado and Arizona respectively. Speaking of Colorado, the Buffaloes should be fine with strong computer numbers and victories over Colorado State, California, at Oregon, and Arizona. Arizona State is likely finished in the at-large discussion after losing to an improving USC team unless they make a run to the finals of the Pac-12 tournament.
Patriot(1)- Bucknell- The Bison won the regular season title, and they begin their conference tourney against Navy.
SEC(4)- Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas- Does anyone in the SEC want to make the NCAA tournament? Missouri should be fine with solid wins vs. Florida, Illinois, and VCU. Tennessee got swept by Georgia over the weekend, but they are in for now after beating Florida last week. Kentucky lost to Arkansas by 13 on the road. Alabama lost to Florida which is forgivable. Ole Miss however dropped a game at Mississippi State, who only has 7 scholarship players. Arkansas is really good at home, but they are only 2-10 in road/neutral games.
Southern(1)- Davidson- The Wildcats dominated the Southern Conference this season, and they should be the huge favorites alongside Charleston for the conference tourney title.
Southland(1)- Stephen F. Austin- The Lumberjacks reclaimed control of the conference after winning by 1 vs. Northwestern State on Saturday.
SWAC(1)- Texas Southern- Texas Southern's the hottest team in the SWAC, but let's be real. Any team can win this conference tourney besides winless Grambling State.
Summit(1)- South Dakota State- The Jackrabbits closed out the regular season with a win at Omaha and the regular season title. They face IUPUI to begin conference tournament play.
Sun Belt(1)- Middle Tennessee State- The Blue Raiders are the class of the Sun Belt, but I believe they still have to win their conference tournament to be safe because they really haven't played anybody in conference.
WCC(2)- Gonzaga, Saint Mary's- The Gaels may not have won any marquee games besides Creighton, but they are in pretty good shape due to other bubble teams losing.
WAC(1)- Louisiana Tech- Louisiana Tech is close to a perfect season in the WAC, but tough road games loom against New Mexico State and Denver.
Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Virginia
Villanova
Tennessee
First Four Out:
Kentucky
Alabama
Baylor
Maryland
Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Ole Miss
UMass
Arkansas
8 spots for 16 teams.
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I was the only person in my entire company pool that picked Northwestern State to win that game. I caught so much crap from the hok fans in the office up until that fateful shot.... God Bless that kid and God Bless the Demons!
