Yeah but Iowa lost to a team like Campbell last year at home...Put Southern (who beat A&M) or Fla Gulf Coast (who beat Miami) on their non conf schedule and I think they might have one more L on their record. Instead they scheduled the worst of the worst and are rightfully so getting punished for it. To only schedule 3 top 150 RPI teams in non conf as a power 6 school is a joke.
***Official 2013 Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter CarlHungus
- Start date
I think if we win tonight we are in. With the bubble being soft...and bubble teams continue to lose, tonight is huge.
If Iowa can climb back into the bubble talk with a win against BPI 60, at home, surely we can lock up a bid with a win against BPI 9.
If Iowa can climb back into the bubble talk with a win against BPI 60, at home, surely we can lock up a bid with a win against BPI 9.
BTW: I would still go with Bracket Matrix consensus over the Easiest Bubble Solver, but it's quicker/easier to compute EBS and has a bit of "end-of-season" predictive value as a team with higher KenPom numbers than RPI (like Iowa) more likely to improve their RPI than other teams.
possible, but unlikely. iowa is far better this year. like 50 spots in kenpom better.
Yeah, if you guys win tonight, you are in for sure. Doesn't even matter what happens against WVU or the first round game. The bubble is so weak it's not funny. Iowa still has 2 more games to win, and needs to win in their Quarterfinal game, or get lots of help by all other bubble teams ahead of them losing multiple games.
Hard to say which way, my opinion is they would have, yours is they wouldn't...Fran's fault for scheduling it that way.
Obviously there is a difference considering most experts are predicting ISU to be in the NCAA Tournament and Iowa to be on the outside looking in. Keep in mind that Iowa plays in the best conference in the country which should significantly improve their SOS ranking while ISU plays in a conference that by all accounts is having a down year and when you compare the SOS rankings..... ISU 65 - Iowa 96. Yeah... it makes a huge difference.
There are plenty of bubble teams right now that have no margin for error. I would say Iowa is in that group right now but they should have 2 very winnable games in Nebraska and a lower level team in the 1st round of the B1G Tourney. If Iowa can pull an upset that could be enough.
There are several bubble teams that don't have as favorable of a road left and a loss will all but end their hopes for a tourney bid. At least Iowa has some potential advantages.
Yup, every single bubble team has significant flaws. If you look up and down the list of 12-15 teams, every one of them has issues. Some have no top 50 wins, but no bad losses, and tons of wins overall (South Miss). Some have very good wins, while having terrible losses (Villanova). Iowa's OOC SOS was brutal, it's their own fault if they don't get in because of it. Every single bubble team has some tough games left, either on the road, or against top 25 teams, while Iowa gets Nebby. Assuming we win, we can basically sit back and watch those other bubble teams lose their way out.
we know there is a difference in how it shows on a resume. the question was whether it means they are a better/worse team.
That doesn't matter. Is Iowa a better team then some at-large teams that will get in the tournament? Probably. The point is it doesn't make a difference when it comes to selection for the NCAA Tourney. A team is what it's resume shows that it is and nothing more. The selection committee can't judge teams based on who they think is better... they judge teams based on who they know is better and that is based on what a team proves during the regular season.
Let's keep in mind this applies to ISU and a lot of fans who are hanging their hats on "we've lost a lot of close games" and "they will take into account we got cheated out of KU win".
So are you saying if Fran does not schedule better in non conference, he probably needs to win 11 or so in conference just to go to the dance each year?
Some (many?) fans are hanging hats on those things, but shouldn't do so — not as any kind of reliable detail among all other considerations and the multitude of tournament contenders. Too much uncertainty how much any of it would go into the full equation.
Could the "cheat game" be a factor? Sure. Will it make a difference? Hard to say. I wouldn't count on it.
ISU, Villanova, Temple, La Salle, and Bucknell win.
Maryland loses.
Currently, 3 out of the last, "last four in", won tonight.
Does anyone know who was ahead of us in Lunardi's projections?
Maryland loses.
Currently, 3 out of the last, "last four in", won tonight.
Does anyone know who was ahead of us in Lunardi's projections?
Temple won a game they should have.
The bubble (15 teams for six spots)
IN (six, in S-curve order):
45. La Salle, 46. Boise State, 47. Iowa State, 50. Temple, 51. Villanova, 52. Tennessee
OUT (nine, in S-curve order):
69. Kentucky, 70. Ole Miss, 71. Maryland, 72. Alabama, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Baylor, 75. Arizona State, 76. Providence, 77. Iowa
guessing Iowa State and Villanova jump LaSalle and Boise St.
I know they're not on the bubble, but UCLA is down 25-9 early against 2-13 in the Pac-12 Washington St. A loss like that might put them back on the bubble.
I just saw on ESPN 2 that we didn't move out of Lunardi's Last 4 in. That can't be right, can it?
