So, is this what has transpired?
1. Gar/Pax decide that they need to get rid of Tibs and hire Fred.
2. Jerry Reinsdorf says "Fine, but I'm not happy about paying two coaches for two years so try not to release him."
3. Gar/Pax decide they will trade Tibs but can't keep their mouths shut about it.
4. New Orleans shows interest in Tibs but figures "Why should we trade anything when they're going to release him anyway."
5. Tibs knows he may not be welcome back in Chicago and says, "I won't agree to be released from my contract (i.e. NBA coaches can't be traded. However, a second team can offer the first team compensation to release the coach from his contract. The coach would also need to agree to be released. From a practical standpoint, the coach would only do this if a new, comparable or better contract is already agreed to with the second team) unless I get additional compensation from the new team."
6. Gar/Pax floats a rumor that Orlando is willing to pay 7-9 million per year for Tibs. This is to try to trick New Orleans into agreeing to pay Tibs the money that he wants to be released.
7. New Orleans says, "I see your game. We're not paying him that much. We like Gentry about as much and we won't have to pay him 7-9 million per year."
8. In the meantime, Flip Saunders wants to hire Fred but either wants to coach for one more year or Glen Taylor says, "I've lost some money these last few years and don't want to pay a coach and GM when I already have one guy that can do both." Or maybe Fred says, "I don't want to coach this young roster now but give them another year of development and I will consider it."
Chicago and Minnesota are the two teams that Fred would consider working for due to several reasons.
Chicago
1. Work for a close friend in Gar Forman
2. Relatively close proximity to relatives, in-laws and friends in Ames
3. Roster that is ready to compete at a very high level at this time.
4. Probably greater pay than the Minnesota job.
5. Comfort level from having lived there for four years.
Minnesota
1. Work for a close friend in Flip Saunders
2. He gets along well with Garnett who will be with the Timberwolves for the next couple of years in some capacity.
3. Young roster with potential but will need developing over the next couple of years.
4. Closest proximity to relatives, in-laws and friends in Ames.
5. Wife's best friend lives in the Twins Cities lessening her anxiety about uprooting the kids from school. If Mama ain't happy ain't nobody happy.
6. Comfort level from having lived there for several years.
This is my overblown theory about what has transpired so far. Go ahead and rip.