17-14 would not put our RPI in the 60's. It probably puts our RPI in the high 40's.
Bubble Watch
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17-14 would not put our RPI in the 60's. It probably puts our RPI in the high 40's.
Agree with most of this. Except I don't think there is a "should" with our teams any year. There is always a fine line as to expectations, goals, and what is relative to actual results/perceptions. Too many variables exist from year to year.....weaknesses, suspensions, injuries, forced to play out of position, road SOS, one-possession game outcomes, etc.
Momentum is a loose term and can shift quite quickly once the tourney actually starts.
Was just thinking the other day that if shots fall for this team like they did for say, the 13-14 team, ISU is perhaps already a 20+ win team and we're talking actual deep run tourney talk.
17-13 puts us at 59 and we're not moving up with another loss.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Iowa St..html
We're currently 55. It's possible you could be right, especially if one of the wins was over Baylor or WV. But, if you take the two most-likely (TCU and Okie State), and a first-round loss in the B12 Tourney, I'm coming up with something in the low to mid-60s. http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Iowa St..html
The bubble is incredibly weak, so it's possible we could get in with that record, but I'm not 100% confident. We would have finished the season 2-5 and would be riding one really good win. It might be enough this year, but would rather not take that risk. This is a team, with 6 seniors in the rotation, that has already underachieved in my book. Don't really want it to get worse.
93% of teams in the Kenpom Top 30 in the past 10 years have made it in to the tournament.
Additionally, right now, we are 6-9 against the RPI Top 150. 15-9, but with 9 wins against teams below 150.
I agree with all the weak bubble stuff, but I have a hard time thinking we get in at 17-14 and only 8 wins against the RPI top 150.
All of that said, I also don't think we finish 2-5. Simply responding to all of the slam dunk, we're in posters.
This is exactly where I am. There will be some really bad teams that make it in this year, maybe even with 17 wins, but I don't think we are a lock at all with 17 just because we beat KU. There hasn't been a time in the last 25 years where a team could be considered a "lock" with only 17 wins, and very, very few have made it in at all. No one with 17 wins has since 2011, which is when they expanded the field and diluted the at-large bids even more.
Wow that's very interesting. Basically 2 teams in the top 30 don't make the tournament every year. Right now teams 20-30 are (in order) Creighton, Cincy, Zona, Notre Dame, Butler, Iowa St, South Carolina, Kansas St, Xavier & Michigan. Iowa St, K-State and Michigan are the only teams even on the bubble. Wichita St is 16 and I could see them not getting an at large bid if necessary.
Kenpom teams 30-40 are much more bubbly with NW, Dayton, Wake, Clemson, TT, Miami, Houston, Maryland, Minnesota, & TCU. 30 does seem like a natural cut-off in lock vs bubble.
Do you know if that includes the teams like Louisville and SMU last year who were Kenpom Top 30, but not eligible?
I'm pretty comfortable in saying that 100% of Top 30 kenpom teams will make the Field of 68 this year. Kenpom has refined that thing a bit, and it's becoming more and more en vogue.
Whether it should be used as part of a team's resume is another question (I don't think teams should be rewarded for being extremely good at losing close games).
And the teams that didn't probably had an RPI above 50. I don't think we are safe at 17-14 but I also think we finish at 10-8 or 11-7 so it won't matter.
If Iowa State goes 2-5 down the stretch there's a good chance that KenPom falls as well.
Need 3 more wins, preferably while avoiding 5 more losses.
Need 3 more wins, preferably while avoiding 5 more losses.
10-8 or better is about the only way I feel comfortable. I know 9-9 may do it, but I wouldn't feel like they were robbed or something for not making it with that record.
Weird how one game makes that much difference in my feelings but 18-6, which is what ISU is *this* close to (or better) sounds miles better than 15-9.
Cyclones 500 Bubble Watch assessment, 2-15 results
Teams that helped their cause:
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Arkansas
Providence (still a ‘fringe” candidate)
Miami
Seton Hall
Did not help their cause (roughly in order of “hurtfulness”):
Rhode Island (L at home to Fordham — Ouch!)
Georgia Tech
Indiana (loss itself was OK, but IU needs wins badly)
TCU
Kansas State
Teams that helped their cause:
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Arkansas
Providence (still a ‘fringe” candidate)
Miami
Seton Hall
Did not help their cause (roughly in order of “hurtfulness”):
Rhode Island (L at home to Fordham — Ouch!)
Georgia Tech
Indiana (loss itself was OK, but IU needs wins badly)
TCU
Kansas State
Miami wins, which is huge. That win is the one thing keeping our non-con from being a flaming pile of dog ****.
Miami has another big game on Saturday too
Miami has another big game on Saturday too
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SOS has a value all it's own win or lose. The committee doesn't just see L's to Gonzaga and Cincy.
