Bubble Watch

83cy

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May 14, 2006
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I think we are in because ISU will win more games this year, but if (unlikely) ISU loses 5 in row in double digits I think we are out. No?
 
  • Disagree
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cyclones500

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Ohio State has two chances at big wins the rest of the way,
Seems like bubble teams had a bad day today. Michigan State, Georgia, and Seton Hall all lost today. I think we're probably safely in at this point, but I'm still rooting against the bubble teams.

Plus, ISU got separation from TCU, splitting the series and hurdling Frogs in RPI. At the fringe, some teams hovering along the cutline lost (Wake Forest, for example). Iowa State is in "would have to play its way out" territory.
 
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awd4cy

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1 more win and there is no doubt what tourney we will be in. Obviously we are going to win more than 1 from now until selection Sunday. It will just be a matter of what seed we get.
 

Gunnerclone

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Why do people continue to refuse to understand the NCAA tournament and its selection criteria? It's pretty much published. They've run mocks with reporters for like three years. Is a team that loses its first 5 conference games and gets to 9-9 any different than a team that loses its last 5 games to get to 9-9? Watching the games and shows tonight it seems like the memo was out: 9-9 is a ticket to the dance in the big 12.
 
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awd4cy

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Funny to see that Rhode Island is on the wrong side of the bubble. Most of us were perplexed about how high they were ranked early in the season. I think they were as high as #18.
They are the yearly team that gets hyped way up. Media loves Rhode Island for some reason even though they are never really very good.
 

cyclones500

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Iowa State also is beginning to look quite good in the indefinable "Eye Test." The team we saw in both games this week, it plays like a tournament team. I can't say I've compared that informal metric with other teams in the seeding-vicinity, but, we have that.
 

DSM4Cy

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Iowa State also is beginning to look quite good in the indefinable "Eye Test." The team we saw in both games this week, it plays like a tournament team. I can't say I've compared that informal metric with other teams in the seeding-vicinity, but, we have that.

Yep. I would argue that we haven't really looked like an "elite" team for a full game this season until this week. Now, hard to say we didn't in winning at Allen Fieldhouse - but we didn't have a good first half and had to make everything in order to complete that comeback. We certainly looked like a tournament team in that game, but not one that could make a deep run, more like a surprise first-round upset type of group. I'm now starting to think these guys might have just the right amount left in the tank for a final push in March...
 

allfourcy

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Why do people continue to refuse to understand the NCAA tournament and its selection criteria? It's pretty much published. They've run mocks with reporters for like three years. Is a team that loses its first 5 conference games and gets to 9-9 any different than a team that loses its last 5 games to get to 9-9? Watching the games and shows tonight it seems like the memo was out: 9-9 is a ticket to the dance in the big 12.

I suppose (on the outside) I agree with you. But why on the inside do I still feel like we need that 1 win, yet, to be 10-8 at least? 1 day off for tough road game at desperate Tech, Baylor is Baylor, Okie State might be playing the best in the league, and at Virginia. Where does our 1 win come from???
As for seeding, I just heard on CBS that Northwestern is projected as a 7-seed. Without spending time looking up all their metrics, are they really deserving of being seeded above us when none of their conference was even listed in the top 16 on the early selection show? I mean, really? They'll be fourth place in that conference at best.
 

DeereClone

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Nov 16, 2009
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Getting real close to that check mark, boys...

View attachment 46595

...keep it up. Now go for seeding. Getting into the #6 line away from the top eight teams in the second round would be a really good idea.

How/why do they list us as the #20 team in the country but still project us as an 8 seed?

If the selection was today I think we'd be a 7 seed. If we suck down the stretch we drop to a 9, if we play good and do well in KC could go as high as a 5.
 
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allfourcy

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We 'should' win? what are you smoking? And who is Ki???
 

cyclones500

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As for seeding, I just heard on CBS that Northwestern is projected as a 7-seed. Without spending time looking up all their metrics, are they really deserving of being seeded above us when none of their conference was even listed in the top 16 on the early selection show? I mean, really? They'll be fourth place in that conference at best.

I have ISU at 7 and NW at 8 right now, could be same line or even swapped. Iowa State has better top-50 wins, more quality-losses in top 50, but two sub-100 losses (NW has zero). And currently, NW has slightly better RPI. I think the teams are in close proximity resume-wise, I'd give slight nod to ISU (conference strength, as you stated, might be a dividing point).
 

enisthemenace

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Dec 5, 2009
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I suppose (on the outside) I agree with you. But why on the inside do I still feel like we need that 1 win, yet, to be 10-8 at least? 1 day off for tough road game at desperate Tech, Baylor is Baylor, Okie State might be playing the best in the league, and at Virginia. Where does our 1 win come from???
As for seeding, I just heard on CBS that Northwestern is projected as a 7-seed. Without spending time looking up all their metrics, are they really deserving of being seeded above us when none of their conference was even listed in the top 16 on the early selection show? I mean, really? They'll be fourth place in that conference at best.

Lunardi has Maryland as a 6 seed. Yes, they are 22-4 currently (about to be 22-5), but they have only played, what, 3 ranked teams (4 after today), and they haven't beaten any of them.
 

enisthemenace

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Valid point.

I guess the one they that could be said for them is they don't have a bad loss (well, Penn State could be considered one, but I've heard a lot in this board that conference losses aren't really all that "bad". Maybe less bad in the Big12 due to round robin). We have 2 or 3.
 

cyclones500

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Lunardi has Maryland as a 6 seed. Yes, they are 22-4 currently (about to be 22-5), but they have only played, what, 3 ranked teams (4 after today), and they haven't beaten any of them.

Maryland is a tricky case. Strong resume vs. top-100 RPI, no sub-75 losses, and contending for Big Ten title ... but only two of the 51-100 wins are vs. teams that are currently in tournament range (Michigan and KSU).
 

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