Jacobson has been fantastic. But I still don’t think he’s better than Lard. I just think Lard is really good, though.
But hard to tell as none of us have seen Lard play since last year. I’m assuming he’s progressed but don’t know.
line ups when the 4 players out come back
- Thread starter blood94
- Start date
But hard to tell as none of us have seen Lard play since last year. I’m assuming he’s progressed but don’t know.
I think Lard is really good too but I don’t think he’d be averaging 17 and 7 if Jacobson was out and Lard was starting.
Agreed. If Lard has learned how to create some of his own offense now, watch Jacobson's minutes go down a lot. If he's just a more refined version of last year's Lard, then I think it's more about the tradeoffs between the two and how that helps us against any particular opponent.
I'm sure Prohm will experiment with both of them at once, but that may not work against a lot of teams on our schedule (I would like to see it against Iowa).
NWB
Wigginton
Shayok
THT
Jacobson
Lard
Talley
Haliburton
Young
Lewis
Jacobson has earned that starter role if you ask me. Lard will still get plenty of minutes. Young will give those guys breaks and be in there against bigger lineups. Talley can play/guard 1-4 and Lewis has shown a lot of offensive improvement thus far this year. Would not shock me to see Prohm play 10 guys consistently, us fans just won't expect it because we haven't seen a roster that we could push past 7 or 8 guys in probably over a decade.
Wigginton
Shayok
THT
Jacobson
Lard
Talley
Haliburton
Young
Lewis
Jacobson has earned that starter role if you ask me. Lard will still get plenty of minutes. Young will give those guys breaks and be in there against bigger lineups. Talley can play/guard 1-4 and Lewis has shown a lot of offensive improvement thus far this year. Would not shock me to see Prohm play 10 guys consistently, us fans just won't expect it because we haven't seen a roster that we could push past 7 or 8 guys in probably over a decade.
Has there been an update on Wigginton's status lately? I know he is out of the cast and in a boot now, but haven't heard anything about a projected return?
I don't disagree with this, and I do think Jacobson continues to start, but I think in this instance it's not really about the numbers and it's more about what we know Lard is capable of doing. Lard, when right, is one of the most dynamic bigs in the Big XII. Jacobson has been really good, but Lard has a higher ceiling.
I don’t know who will start, as I think Lard needs some coddling, but having the higher ceiling is subjective and overvalued in-season.
I think Lard’s athleticism and energy gives him a pretty high floor. His high ceiling is based more on hopes of adding skills that Jacobson already has.
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Seth Davis in "The Athletic" had a paragraph on ISU today. Mentioned that he spoke to Prohm this weekend and Prohm was still projecting a mid-December return. Davis also mentioned that the suspended players are expected back come December. IMO that's better than slipping in a suspended indefinitely in there.
Both will play and some together. Jacobson hasn't done anything to "lose" the starters job and will play starters minutes regardless.
I still think Lard will be the starter once the B12 season begins. Lard's defensive post presence and ability to rim run with the small line up is something I think Prohm will want to raise the ceiling vs the Kansas and Texas Post threat's of the league. Plus I could see Prohm wanting to give him a confidence boost upon his return by placing him as a starter validating the actions he took this summer.
Starters
1- Babb
2- Wiggs
3- Shayock
4- Jacobson
5- Lard
Bench
6- THT
7/8- Halliburton
7/8- Solo
9- Talley
10- Lewis
11- Conditt
12- Griffin
I think Jacobson and Lard can play together and I think they compliment each other quite well actually. I don't see how Shayock, Wiggs, or Babb don't start as well so THT becomes the odd man out. I don't feel confident about that but I do feel that we are only going 8 deep for significant minutes a night, with 9 or 10 getting some run at times. You have 5 solid guards, 4 of which getting serious minutes right now on a winning team and one who is all big 12, I don't see that changing a ton. Then you have Lard and Jacobson (all big 12 potential) and Solo who has started a lot of games taking up the other openings. I like Talley and I see potential in Lewis but short of a big leap I don't see them ahead of the others on the depth chart.
1- Babb
2- Wiggs
3- Shayock
4- Jacobson
5- Lard
Bench
6- THT
7/8- Halliburton
7/8- Solo
9- Talley
10- Lewis
11- Conditt
12- Griffin
I think Jacobson and Lard can play together and I think they compliment each other quite well actually. I don't see how Shayock, Wiggs, or Babb don't start as well so THT becomes the odd man out. I don't feel confident about that but I do feel that we are only going 8 deep for significant minutes a night, with 9 or 10 getting some run at times. You have 5 solid guards, 4 of which getting serious minutes right now on a winning team and one who is all big 12, I don't see that changing a ton. Then you have Lard and Jacobson (all big 12 potential) and Solo who has started a lot of games taking up the other openings. I like Talley and I see potential in Lewis but short of a big leap I don't see them ahead of the others on the depth chart.
Switch Lard out for THT (with the requisite move of Jacobson to the 5) and I think that's exactly it. I just can't see taking THT out of the starting line up. Too good and versatile.
I outlined this in the computer rankings thread, but I thought I would move some of the same evidence and expand upon the same over here.
Barttovik has a statistic called "PRPG!" on his (?) site. The number is similar to WAR from baseball for the value over a replacement player, but instead of your value in terms of wins over a 162 game season, it is your value in net points per game compared to a replacement college player (so think like a Long or a Beverly). A +1 means you add one point over replacement.
Here is a little tabulation of PRPG! for the eight men eligible this season (with the cardinal backgrounds) and the score for the four guys sitting out right now using their PRPG! for the past season (with the gold backgrounds). This is not to say these guys cannot improve this season relative to last year, but this is what we have right now...
For those of you who might say that the guys in gold above were "on a bad team," well, duh. Of course they were. Those four played a substantial number of minutes on that bad team, though, and they were not really playing that well compared to the hot start that the top four guys above and young Mr. Haliburton have us off to starting this season.
This is why I think the following...
-- Jacobson, Shayok, Nick, and THT are not leaving the starting lineup anytime soon
-- Jacobson has been really good... ample playing time is available to Lard as a second post starter or from the bench, but Mike might already be much better than him
-- Wigginton gets his starting spot back when healthy, but Haliburton is still going to see plenty of minutes as the first guard/wing off the bench
-- Haliburton has been very good, and considering he plays a similar position to Talley, Talley might be behind him in the rotation going forward
-- If we only go 7-8 deep, then Zoran might be the odd man out
-- Solomon has the most experience of anybody on the roster, but the talent level has increased so much that he is going to probably be a rotational guy
-- He seems to have the mentality to accept a bench role after starting two seasons, though
Their per 100 splits from this season for Mike and last year for Cameron...
CAMERON
MICHAEL
Jacobson has just been better so far.
-- not shown above, but Michael has a TS% of 72% versus 60% for Lard
-- Michael is a slightly better free throw shooter and has a higher % from the field
-- Lard has zero range, while Jacobson is shooting 40% from three
-- Jacobson is drawing nearly twice as many fouls
-- Lard does offer much more on the boards, though, and can be a nasty rim-protector if less fundamentally sound on positioning compared to Mike and Solo
-- much better efficiency ratings for Jacobson on both offense and defense
Not saying that Lard cannot do it, and obviously having two dominant big men with contrasting styles on the roster would be really nice, but Jacobson this year is better than Lard last year. Jacobson having an inside-outside game and offering no rim protection while Lard being so good on the offensive glass and lurking for the block makes them viable to play together against bigger lineups when we can do so, though I do not know if I trust either of them guarding a Shayok- or THT-type playing small-ball 4. Cameron is going to have to kill it or one of the guards is going to have to hit a wall in the next few weeks to get his starting spot back.
Not hoping for this, but a more viable path for Cameron to start might be Wigginton taking longer than expected to return, another injury, or THT/Haliburton hitting that rookie wall. Barring those, though, it would not shock me if the starting five from opening night is our starting five the rest of the season. Prohm is slow to make changes to the rotation without obvious reason to do so, and I think NWB-Wiggi-THT-Shayok-Jacobson is going to be very effective.
Barttovik has a statistic called "PRPG!" on his (?) site. The number is similar to WAR from baseball for the value over a replacement player, but instead of your value in terms of wins over a 162 game season, it is your value in net points per game compared to a replacement college player (so think like a Long or a Beverly). A +1 means you add one point over replacement.
Here is a little tabulation of PRPG! for the eight men eligible this season (with the cardinal backgrounds) and the score for the four guys sitting out right now using their PRPG! for the past season (with the gold backgrounds). This is not to say these guys cannot improve this season relative to last year, but this is what we have right now...
For those of you who might say that the guys in gold above were "on a bad team," well, duh. Of course they were. Those four played a substantial number of minutes on that bad team, though, and they were not really playing that well compared to the hot start that the top four guys above and young Mr. Haliburton have us off to starting this season.
This is why I think the following...
-- Jacobson, Shayok, Nick, and THT are not leaving the starting lineup anytime soon
-- Jacobson has been really good... ample playing time is available to Lard as a second post starter or from the bench, but Mike might already be much better than him
-- Wigginton gets his starting spot back when healthy, but Haliburton is still going to see plenty of minutes as the first guard/wing off the bench
-- Haliburton has been very good, and considering he plays a similar position to Talley, Talley might be behind him in the rotation going forward
-- If we only go 7-8 deep, then Zoran might be the odd man out
-- Solomon has the most experience of anybody on the roster, but the talent level has increased so much that he is going to probably be a rotational guy
-- He seems to have the mentality to accept a bench role after starting two seasons, though
Their per 100 splits from this season for Mike and last year for Cameron...
CAMERON
MICHAEL
Jacobson has just been better so far.
-- not shown above, but Michael has a TS% of 72% versus 60% for Lard
-- Michael is a slightly better free throw shooter and has a higher % from the field
-- Lard has zero range, while Jacobson is shooting 40% from three
-- Jacobson is drawing nearly twice as many fouls
-- Lard does offer much more on the boards, though, and can be a nasty rim-protector if less fundamentally sound on positioning compared to Mike and Solo
-- much better efficiency ratings for Jacobson on both offense and defense
Not saying that Lard cannot do it, and obviously having two dominant big men with contrasting styles on the roster would be really nice, but Jacobson this year is better than Lard last year. Jacobson having an inside-outside game and offering no rim protection while Lard being so good on the offensive glass and lurking for the block makes them viable to play together against bigger lineups when we can do so, though I do not know if I trust either of them guarding a Shayok- or THT-type playing small-ball 4. Cameron is going to have to kill it or one of the guards is going to have to hit a wall in the next few weeks to get his starting spot back.
Not hoping for this, but a more viable path for Cameron to start might be Wigginton taking longer than expected to return, another injury, or THT/Haliburton hitting that rookie wall. Barring those, though, it would not shock me if the starting five from opening night is our starting five the rest of the season. Prohm is slow to make changes to the rotation without obvious reason to do so, and I think NWB-Wiggi-THT-Shayok-Jacobson is going to be very effective.
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He does, but I've said it before- I think he's a scorer rather than a shooter. I think he's going to have those 5-15 nights, but he also can go off for 30 at any time. He does need to be a little more selective on the long threes though.
Haliburton seems like the perfect back up to Babb. Maybe not the same scoring potential yet, but a similar demeanor in playing defense, sharing the ball and limiting mistakes.
Actually, I'm hoping that Lewis breaking through for a big contribution leads to more big contributions from him.
He's got the best looking shot just has to zen it in.
He's got the best looking shot just has to zen it in.
He just needs to get comfortable. Very similar to a young Matt Thomas in that way. You know it's there, but they're just pressing.
My guess:
Babb, Lindell, Shayok start
2 of THT, Jacobson, Lard start
Above 6 play starter minutes
Halliburton and Young round out ‘normal’ 8 man rotation.
Talley gets sporadic minutes based on matchups, foul trouble, etc. 20 min some nights, single digits others.
Lewis, Griffin, and Conditt barely see the floor in conference play.
A lot of this isn’t based on talent or ability, just limitations of minutes.
Babb, Lindell, Shayok start
2 of THT, Jacobson, Lard start
Above 6 play starter minutes
Halliburton and Young round out ‘normal’ 8 man rotation.
Talley gets sporadic minutes based on matchups, foul trouble, etc. 20 min some nights, single digits others.
Lewis, Griffin, and Conditt barely see the floor in conference play.
A lot of this isn’t based on talent or ability, just limitations of minutes.
