2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[Cyclones01]

We would finish 7-1. Both OU and OSU finish 7-2. The conference would then announce Bedlam 2.0 for the championship because ISU didn't play a full conference schedule. Somehow this would happen.

Actually, we'd still be #1. The league tie-breaker rules state that the minimum number of required games is 1 less than the average number of conference games played. So it is impossible for the minimum requirement to be 9 games. If the records are unbalanced, you compare losses, and we win that.

 

[CRcyclone6]

Actually, we'd still be #1. The league tie-breaker rules state that the minimum number of required games is 1 less than the average number of conference games played. So it is impossible for the minimum requirement to be 9 games. If the records are unbalanced, you compare losses, and we win that.

I know. Was trying to be funny.

 

[Cyclones01]

I know. Was trying to be funny.

My bad

 

[mred]

OK. We need @Dale to give us the updated probabilities under these two different assumptions:
1) All games are played
2) Texas/Kansas is cancelled

 

[DurangoCy]

OK. We need @Dale to give us the updated probabilities under these two different assumptions:
1) All games are played
2) Texas/Kansas is cancelled

Using ESPNs trash FPI
1) 1/3000, 99.96%
2) 1/60, 98.33%

 

[qwerty]

Does anybody know what would happen if one of Oklahoma's last two games isn't able to be played? Their game today was postponed and they play Baylor next week (who has already had issues with covid). Would they be disqualified from the championship game if they finished at 6 - 2 and OSU was 7 - 2? Or would they push the championship game back again to let them get their game in? Anyone know?

Seasons have to wrap up Dec 19th as CFP and bowls come out on Dec 20th.

 

[qwerty]

Not to pile on, but, its "too stupid"...

I'm going to "double" down and say "two" stupid . . .

 

[Dale]

OK. We need @Dale to give us the updated probabilities under these two different assumptions:
1) All games are played
2) Texas/Kansas is cancelled

99.8% if Texas/Kansas is played; 98.4% if Texas/Kansas is cancelled.

 

[BigJCy]

I don't trust Texas down the stretch. Have a feeling they could have quite a few guys opting out or just mailing it in.

 

[Scruff]

I don't trust Texas down the stretch. Have a feeling they could have quite a few guys opting out or just mailing it in.

For the record, opting out of regular season games is the opposite of Five-Star Culture.

 

[JRE1975]

If Texas no shows the last 2 games then they should pay the whole penalty for lost TV revenue instead of other teams paying the price. Herman should never get another head coaching job.

We need to beat WV, keep the momentum for our game with OU, and then we don't have to worry about what Texas does.

 

[2speedy1]

The people that say Texas will opt not to play Kansas. Do you really think they will cancel the game, and take the loss without playing? Playing is at least playing and more practice. Forfeiting is about as bad of look and thing to do as a program. And even with the Covid rules, they arent the same as the Little 10 rules, with the little 10, wisky and Osu canceled games because they were scared to lose because they had some key people out with covid, even though they met the requirements to play. In the Big 12 you cant do that, if you have the required players you must play or it is a forfeit, not a no contest.
The Little 10 is trying to manipulate the system to make sure their best teams go undefeated. But its backfiring because now they are risking them not being eligible to play their championship. I still believe they will magically cancel enough games to make the number of average games played lower so Wisc and Osu can make it in with only 4 or 5 games played.

 

[cstrunk]

This is Texas. There is no ******* way any team in this state willingly cancels a FB game.

And Texas does NOT want to lose to KSU or KU. They may be prima-donna's but they still want to win.

 

[Dale]

For closure, the last model run of the year:

Iowa St.: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 100.0% (0.0% 1st, 100.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 100.0%

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

For closure, the last model run of the year:

Iowa St.: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 100.0% (0.0% 1st, 100.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 100.0%

Can you run it again if the Texas Kansas game gets canceled? Thanks

 

[Dale]

Can you run it again if the Texas Kansas game gets canceled? Thanks

Oh sure, no problem, let's check the results:

Iowa St.: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 100.0% (0.0% 1st, 100.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 100.0%

 

[Rogue52]

For closure, the last model run of the year:

Iowa St.: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 100.0% (0.0% 1st, 100.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 100.0%

Beautiful!

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

Oh sure, no problem, let's check the results:

Iowa St.: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 100.0% (0.0% 1st, 100.0% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 100.0%

Oh cool. I was worried Oklahoma would gain a percentage there! Glad that wasn't the case

 

[CircumCYZ]

Just a question but does OU have to play their make-up game next week against WVU? I know it wouldn’t matter to them but could affect a bowl game for WVU. Also a freak injury could affect the championship game.

 

[BigJCy]

Just a question but does OU have to play their make-up game next week against WVU? I know it wouldn’t matter to them but could affect a bowl game for WVU. Also a freak injury could affect the championship game.

Yes they are playing that game