Perspective from the Big Ten and some much needed clarifications

[AuH2O]

That was just a ploy to get the big ten network into the east coast cable markets. The schools aren't great from an athletics standpoint but they accomplished their goal and that's why they have been making more money then the SEC this whole time. Nebraska is the only real failure of the last expansion.

The big 10 made money due to the old model and them giving up money for membership. Now that the incidental cable and satellite bucks are drying up with those platforms shrinking fast and sports channels going to packages in those platforms, a team has to draw viewers to drive ad value. Maryland and Rutgers are terrible in that regard. The importance of the market you are in keeps shrinking while eyeballs on the product keeps increasing.

That is why the Big 10 might actually consider ISU. ISU was 21st in the nation in attendance, averaged far more viewers per game last year than much of the Big 10, including Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue and of course Rutgers and Maryland. Most of those by a large margin. I didn’t look at MSU.

If Fox does not push them to expand, I doubt they will. If they do, I’m sure looking at the likes of the ACC teams (though highly unlikely due to GoR) and USC and Oregon. But if people ditch their antiquated notion of what makes a team valuable from a media contract perspective, ISU is surprisingly attractive, and a good chunk of the Big 10 is not attractive at all.

Last, you can bet ISU would forgo dollars much more than the ACC of PAC candidates would.

 

[I-stateTheTruth]

I just read a depressing article from Yahoo Sports citing an Austin-based writer whose Big 10 source said that KU and ISU's efforts to get some traction with the Big 10 probably are not going anywhere. Blurbs:

Iowa State and Kansas were attempting to get ahead of the rest by reportedly reaching out to the Big Ten. While neither school may be the most marketable on the football field, the Cyclones are an up-and-coming program under Matt Campbell, while the Jayhawks can sell basketball.

Both seemingly fit into the Big Ten’s culture well but have reportedly been shot down by the conference.

According to Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman, Iowa State and Kansas “made a run at the Big Ten” but his source was not sure if they would get any place. While none of the talks seemed serious enough for the Big 12 to shrink to six schools, there was at least an attempt.

Link: https://sports.yahoo.com/report-big-ten-may-not-233758725.html

I have to say, I'm not optimistic about ISU getting an invite to the Big 10. My most likely scenario is a watered-down Big 12 with maybe Cincinnati and Houston joining. And a LOT of budget cuts in Ames.

 

[isucy86]

I agree with this as well. In my opinion, there is no reason for the Big 10 to "grab schools" just to keep up with the SEC. They are not in a position to require knee jerk instant reactions to keep up. They'll probably play it chill and see what shakes out.

That said, if the PAC schools don't go Big 10, and grab the B12 leftovers as has been rumored, sign a GOR. There will be slim pickings for them (AAU schools) when they feel the need to get to 16. If they can wait until 2030 or whatever for ACC schools, more power to them.

I don't think the Big10 needs to make a knee jerk reaction, but they have to protect their status.

First of all the Big10 media rights deal is up first. I believe after the 2023 season. The Big10 is going to want it's lineup of schools solidified before that negotiation starts. Which is probably within 12 months.

Maybe the SEC isn't done. But the Big10 would kick themselves if the top tier of Pac12 teams join the SEC.

Remember, this consolidation isn't primarily about the regular season media rights. It's about the $2B on the table when a 12 team playoff is added. The Big10 and SEC are going to want to get 4-6 teams in the playoff each year. Like it or not, school name impacts playoff selection. And USC and Oregon have that name credibility in 2021.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Those numbers actually give me hope. If you break them down, that means an average viewership of 1.68 million per school. That puts us above average. Considering that the average payout is $37M, football has significantly increased the market value of our brand....quite possibly to the point where we're no longer a major financial liability to take in as a member.

I dont want to burst your bubble but

• College Football on FOX had its most-watched regular season ever, bringing in an average audience of 3,729,000, representing a 12% increase over 2018.

 

[CrossCyed]

I just read a depressing article from Yahoo Sports citing an Austin-based writer whose Big 10 source said that KU and ISU's efforts to get some traction with the Big 10 probably are not going anywhere. Blurbs:

Iowa State and Kansas were attempting to get ahead of the rest by reportedly reaching out to the Big Ten. While neither school may be the most marketable on the football field, the Cyclones are an up-and-coming program under Matt Campbell, while the Jayhawks can sell basketball.

Both seemingly fit into the Big Ten’s culture well but have reportedly been shot down by the conference.

According to Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman, Iowa State and Kansas “made a run at the Big Ten” but his source was not sure if they would get any place. While none of the talks seemed serious enough for the Big 12 to shrink to six schools, there was at least an attempt.

Link: https://sports.yahoo.com/report-big-ten-may-not-233758725.html

I have to say, I'm not optimistic about ISU getting an invite to the Big 10. My most likely scenario is a watered-down Big 12 with maybe Cincinnati and Houston joining. And a LOT of budget cuts in Ames.

His interpretation of "reportedly shot down" is not what that tweet means. It's what he thinks it means. Bohls tweet makes it sound like ISU and KU reached out but it may be fruitless. Somehow, the writer turned that into the B1G saying no.

 

[Statefan10]

I just read a depressing article from Yahoo Sports citing an Austin-based writer whose Big 10 source said that KU and ISU's efforts to get some traction with the Big 10 probably are not going anywhere. Blurbs:

Iowa State and Kansas were attempting to get ahead of the rest by reportedly reaching out to the Big Ten. While neither school may be the most marketable on the football field, the Cyclones are an up-and-coming program under Matt Campbell, while the Jayhawks can sell basketball.

Both seemingly fit into the Big Ten’s culture well but have reportedly been shot down by the conference.

According to Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman, Iowa State and Kansas “made a run at the Big Ten” but his source was not sure if they would get any place. While none of the talks seemed serious enough for the Big 12 to shrink to six schools, there was at least an attempt.

Link: https://sports.yahoo.com/report-big-ten-may-not-233758725.html

I have to say, I'm not optimistic about ISU getting an invite to the Big 10. My most likely scenario is a watered-down Big 12 with maybe Cincinnati and Houston joining. And a LOT of budget cuts in Ames.

That article was written like right after Texas & OU sent their letter to the Big 12. So although that all may be true, it happened far too early.

 

[cysmiley]

Totally agree! Also while I dont know if iowa would do it Michigan tried to block our entry into the big ten back in the 20's before they relented and allowed us in back in 1949.

I think some of their fan base would like them to, but it would be political suicide for the institution if it got out and someone like MSU might leak the opposition from Iowa. Think their admin is smarter than to pay attention to a fan base.

Edit I think their current president is from one of the Michigan Schools, don't know if UM or MSU.

 

[Die4Cy]

I dont want to burst your bubble but

• College Football on FOX had its most-watched regular season ever, bringing in an average audience of 3,729,000, representing a 12% increase over 2018.

College Football on FOX is broadcast television. You are comparing 13 straight weeks of broadcast tv games vs ISU that had 2 or 3 broadcast games with the rest on cable TV.

Definitely not apples to apples.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I don't think the Big10 needs to make a knee jerk reaction, but they have to protect their status.

First of all the Big10 media rights deal is up first. I believe after the 2023 season. The Big10 is going to want it's lineup of schools solidified before that negotiation starts. Which is probably within 12 months.

Maybe the SEC isn't done. But the Big10 would kick themselves if the top tier of Pac12 teams join the SEC.

Remember, this consolidation isn't primarily about the regular season media rights. It's about the $2B on the table when a 12 team playoff is added. The Big10 and SEC are going to want to get 4-6 teams in the playoff each year. Like it or not, school name impacts playoff selection. And USC and Oregon have that name credibility in 2021.

See these are the overreactions im talking about. 4-6 teams per year is insane. This is the current proposal up for vote on the 12 team playoff.

As proposed, the six highest-ranked conference champions would populate the bracket along with six at-large teams. There would be no automatic qualifiers for the Power Five conferences. The four highest-ranked teams would receive a bye, and the CFP would commence with four play-in games hosted on the campuses of teams ranked between fifth and eighth.

Most likely the SEC and BIG will get 3 maybe 4 teams in each year. Also projected value is 1 billion per year not 2 billion. We also dont know how that money would be distributed. Right now the playoff deal is for 600 million but the teams only get between 6-7 million per school for getting in. The expected big ten media contracts are for 70-80 million per year per school.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

College Football on FOX is broadcast television. You are comparing 13 straight weeks of broadcast tv games vs ISU that had 2 or 3 broadcast games with the rest on cable TV.

Definitely not apples to apples.

Very fair point but those games include FS1 and other fox sports channels that aren't on basic cable. I find it odd that people on this site keep talking about how cable viewership doesn't matter as if people arent watching the same channels on youtube tv, hulu, or sling. If you paid for the sports package on cable you are paying for it on the streaming service too. Sure you might lose a few people that didn't know they randomly had the big ten network etc built in but i dont know how many that number is considering viewership keeps going up every year.

 

[JRE1975]

I dont want to burst your bubble but

• College Football on FOX had its most-watched regular season ever, bringing in an average audience of 3,729,000, representing a 12% increase over 2018.

Thanks for coming over to talk!

Switching gears a little, I have been told by several people that Iowa State does a lot of joint grant work already with MSU and Purdue in several areas. Does that make any difference in how the Big 10 will look at us, or is it not significant enough to move any needles?

 

[Die4Cy]

Very fair point but those games include FS1 and other fox sports channels that aren't on basic cable. I find it odd that people on this site keep talking about how cable viewership doesn't matter as if people arent watching the same channels on youtube tv, hulu, or sling. If you paid for the sports package on cable you are paying for it on the streaming service too. Sure you might lose a few people that didn't know they randomly had the big ten network etc built in but i dont know how many that number is considering viewership keeps going up every year.

• The 392 regular season telecasts on ABC, the Big Ten Network, BTN, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPNU, FOX, FS1, NBC and the NFL Network during the 2019season averaged 1,839,000 viewers per game (a 2% increase from 2018) while reaching more than 145 million unique fans†

This is the average viewership of all regular season games on all channels, taken from same source material you quoted above.

 

[Jjohnson1984]

Good post...... and thanks a lot for beating Iowa in the Big Ten Championship in 2015.

Ah! But the elite eight basketball from 2000..... GRRR

 

[AuH2O]

College Football on FOX is broadcast television. You are comparing 13 straight weeks of broadcast tv games vs ISU that had 2 or 3 broadcast games with the rest on cable TV.

Definitely not apples to apples.

When ISU was on network TV they did very well. As a comparison to take away the OU and UT effect:

Oct 24 at 3:30 pm
CBS, Alabama-Tenn 4.36 mil
Fox, Iowa State- Oklahoma State 2.81 mil
ABC, Notre Dame-Pitt 2.49 mil
FS1, Penn St - Indiana 2.01 mil
ESPN, Texas-Baylor 1.15 mil
BTN, Iowa-Purdue, 795,000

 

[NoCreativity]

This is where I'm at as well. I think Iowa State eventually ends up in the Big 10 but not for another 6-8 years.

There is no reason for them to add Iowa St or Kansas anytime soon. Neither moves the needle at all and would seem like mercy admissions because they felt sorry for us. I dont see that happening.

I think the Big 12 tries to stick around as long as it can and we use the next 5 years as an audition process .

 

[FriendlySpartan]

• The 392 regular season telecasts on ABC, the Big Ten Network, BTN, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPNU, FOX, FS1, NBC and the NFL Network during the 2019season averaged 1,839,000 viewers per game (a 2% increase from 2018) while reaching more than 145 million unique fans†

This is the average viewership of all regular season games on all channels, taken from same source material you quoted above.

Great stat! So with ISU being at 1.8 mil per game they fall in the exact average of season ratings for all games. Honestly I think you can spin that to be either a positive or negative. Positive because you aren't hurting a conference and could actually be another good team to have in the stable. Negative because that is saying that your viewership is average. Not sure how the leagues will choose to look at it.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Thanks for coming over to talk!

Switching gears a little, I have been told by several people that Iowa State does a lot of joint grant work already with MSU and Purdue in several areas. Does that make any difference in how the Big 10 will look at us, or is it not significant enough to move any needles?

It can't hurt and to the university presidents will be considered a major plus. Honestly I just think at this point the question is if the big ten will add anybody before the 2023 rights deal and if they do are any major pac 12 schools are in play. If the west coast is out and they want to add then you are a no brainer choice as long as you have CMC. Seriously back the brinks truck up and lock him down forever. I know we tried getting him when Mark retired but our situation wasnt great, but Regular Michigan will be hunting for him if they lose to OSU again.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This is where I'm at as well. I think Iowa State eventually ends up in the Big 10 but not for another 6-8 years.

There is no reason for them to add Iowa St or Kansas anytime soon. Neither moves the needle at all and would seem like mercy admissions because they felt sorry for us. I dont see that happening.

I think the Big 12 tries to stick around as long as it can and we use the next 5 years as an audition process .

So I have to disagree with part of this. First if the Big 12 survives for a bit and you continue to win and get some serious buzz it might almost be worth it to just stay in the new Big 12 if you have access to the new playoff. Basically be kings of the conference and rake in the money without competition.

However if the big ten doesn't add anyone now and waits 8 years at that point they will just grab the ACC schools they really want (unless you become that perennial power) and go from there. This is just my thought because alot can change in 6-8 years but I think that the likely hood of you getting into the big ten or SEC now is higher then if you wait 6-8 years.

 

[AuH2O]

• The 392 regular season telecasts on ABC, the Big Ten Network, BTN, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNEWS, ESPNU, FOX, FS1, NBC and the NFL Network during the 2019season averaged 1,839,000 viewers per game (a 2% increase from 2018) while reaching more than 145 million unique fans†

This is the average viewership of all regular season games on all channels, taken from same source material you quoted above.

Not to mention the Fox numbers include CCG while the ISU 1.8 mil was regular season ONLY. For reference ISUs CCG drew 3 mil and Fiesta Bowl on ESPN drew 6.8 mil. Meanwhile that 1.8 mil on Fox channels you site includes the Big 10 title game that drew 8 mil!

Anybody that actually digs into the numbers realizes that ISU is going to bring more ad value in media than several big 10 teams, and about half of the PAC and ACC.

If everything completely blew up conference wise and started from scratch, ISU would be picked ahead of a lot of teams that the typical dumb fan and Sports “media” Twittiot would not expect.

 

[isucy86]

If you have a different perspective or another idea I would love to hear it. The thing is that not a lot has changed for the big ten and honestly very little has changed yet for the SEC. I know sports media talks non stop about the college football world exploding but there is nothing to indicate that the big ten is looking to make a move at all. Again this move by the SEC was to catch up to the big ten. They could very well panic and decide to add teams but there is very little indication that they need to and any response to the SEC's addition is going to look pretty sad by comparison.

If the Big10 stands pat, the SEC adding OU and Texas is a leap past the Big10.

If there was a 12 team playoff last year, how many Big10 teams get a bid? OSU and Indiana.

How many SEC teams get a bid? Bama, A&M, Georgia, Florida. Now they add OU.

The SEC has 7 elite generational programs in Bama, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, A&M & Texas. Plus Auburn and Tennessee aren't far behind.

The Big10 is at 4 schools with OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisky. Schools like MSU, Nebraska and Iowa have some tradition, but it is harder to sustain.

The 12 team playoff is valued at $2B. Today the Big10 and SEC regular season media right packages are worth $1.5M combined. Withe the other 3 power conference packages totalling around $1.3M.

So any realignment is about:
1. Maximizing playoff teams/ revenue.
2. The SEC/Big12 canibalizing future Big12 & Pac12 media rights deal.

That is critical because at some point in the next 5 years the ACC conference is going to ask ESPN to redo the ACC Network deal that runs through 2036. No way Clemson is going to be satisfied making $40-50M annually.