I pulled some data together to get an idea of how ISU stacks up with other schools in a potential Power League. ISU has a pretty good profile. However, obviously, a lot of politics need to play out before this thing shakes out.
I think we will likely need to get to at least 48 to get into a super conf (imho)...
Let's pack the Jack this fall and show our support in contributions to the athletic dept as well. It's a critical time for ISU Athletics.
Keep in mind:
- B12 teams are in desperation mode, other Power conferences are a bit more stable (although, given the likely revenue gaps, I do think it will be difficult for PAC/ACC to stay in tact as they are over the next 5-10 years)
- ACC grant of rights runs through 2036 making it difficult to poach from them for a while... would it be possible to "dissolve" the ACC (much like there is talk of dissolving the B12) if majority of ACC voted to do so (it would take at least 8 if that is the case)? ACC may be making conf payouts equal to about half b10/sec since their current deal does not expire until 2036 (other conf are set for new, much larger contract in next 2-3 years)... they will be forced to add schools (ND very unlikely to join) just to reopen the contract and get more money. This may be a landing spot for a team like wvu if ND does not join and ACC is forced to add in order to increase revenue.
- PAC seems like a prime target for b10 to me... the question is, how many schools does the b10 need to invite in order to consolidate b10/pac? is there interest from both sides to do so? If so, when? To me, B10 may need to add ~6-10 of these schools to make this happen.
Assumptions:
- b10, SEC are the only surviving leagues (may take 5-10 yrs to happen)
- All of the current members of these leagues will be protected (could dissolve all leagues and create one power league eliminating teams like vandy, rutgers, etc. but assuming here that all sec/b10 teams are protected).
- Current teams: 14 teams b10, 16 teams sec (including ou, tx); total 30
- 32 teams: +2 (b10 +2)
- 40 teams: +10 (sec +4, b10 +6)
- 48 teams: +18 (sec +8, b10 +10)
AAU Members:
AAU membership has been a key for the b10. We will see how important it is when the dust settles. But for now, here are the potential AAU adds from the B12, ACC, and PAC. ISU is pretty strong on football attendance and if you look at conf tv ratings ISU stacks up well vs. Wash, Oregon. Overall athletic budget lags however. Part of this can be attributed to school / student contributions (ISU only has $2.1M in rev from this, Arizona on the other extreme received $21.9M in funding from the school. Teams in green I expect to be top targets (locks) for a super conf. The gray are schools "unlikely" to get an invite.
Sources:
Budget Revenue: https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances
Home Attendance: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2019.pdf
All Schools (35 total)
Here are profiles for all schools in ACC/PAC/B12/ND. I highlight in green the "Locks" (8) and also put projected conference for the schools I put in the "Likely" (6) category. Finally, I put "?" (12) next to teams I believe will be considered. Teams in gray I would assume are unlikely to be invited (9).
If all the "Locks" and "Likely" teams make it... only room for 4 "?" to get into a 48 team field. No space for "?" in a 40 team field.
Not sure what it would take to break up the ACC given the GOR through 2036. But if it takes a simple majority... that would be 8 votes. So, at least 8 spots would go to the ACC (including 2 "?" from list above). That would leave 2 for everyone else.
Hope we get to 60 teams so all of this gets a bit easier... but we will see.
I think we will likely need to get to at least 48 to get into a super conf (imho)...
Let's pack the Jack this fall and show our support in contributions to the athletic dept as well. It's a critical time for ISU Athletics.
Keep in mind:
- B12 teams are in desperation mode, other Power conferences are a bit more stable (although, given the likely revenue gaps, I do think it will be difficult for PAC/ACC to stay in tact as they are over the next 5-10 years)
- ACC grant of rights runs through 2036 making it difficult to poach from them for a while... would it be possible to "dissolve" the ACC (much like there is talk of dissolving the B12) if majority of ACC voted to do so (it would take at least 8 if that is the case)? ACC may be making conf payouts equal to about half b10/sec since their current deal does not expire until 2036 (other conf are set for new, much larger contract in next 2-3 years)... they will be forced to add schools (ND very unlikely to join) just to reopen the contract and get more money. This may be a landing spot for a team like wvu if ND does not join and ACC is forced to add in order to increase revenue.
- PAC seems like a prime target for b10 to me... the question is, how many schools does the b10 need to invite in order to consolidate b10/pac? is there interest from both sides to do so? If so, when? To me, B10 may need to add ~6-10 of these schools to make this happen.
Assumptions:
- b10, SEC are the only surviving leagues (may take 5-10 yrs to happen)
- All of the current members of these leagues will be protected (could dissolve all leagues and create one power league eliminating teams like vandy, rutgers, etc. but assuming here that all sec/b10 teams are protected).
- Current teams: 14 teams b10, 16 teams sec (including ou, tx); total 30
- 32 teams: +2 (b10 +2)
- 40 teams: +10 (sec +4, b10 +6)
- 48 teams: +18 (sec +8, b10 +10)
AAU Members:
AAU membership has been a key for the b10. We will see how important it is when the dust settles. But for now, here are the potential AAU adds from the B12, ACC, and PAC. ISU is pretty strong on football attendance and if you look at conf tv ratings ISU stacks up well vs. Wash, Oregon. Overall athletic budget lags however. Part of this can be attributed to school / student contributions (ISU only has $2.1M in rev from this, Arizona on the other extreme received $21.9M in funding from the school. Teams in green I expect to be top targets (locks) for a super conf. The gray are schools "unlikely" to get an invite.
Sources:
Budget Revenue: https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances
Home Attendance: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2019.pdf
All Schools (35 total)
Here are profiles for all schools in ACC/PAC/B12/ND. I highlight in green the "Locks" (8) and also put projected conference for the schools I put in the "Likely" (6) category. Finally, I put "?" (12) next to teams I believe will be considered. Teams in gray I would assume are unlikely to be invited (9).
If all the "Locks" and "Likely" teams make it... only room for 4 "?" to get into a 48 team field. No space for "?" in a 40 team field.
Not sure what it would take to break up the ACC given the GOR through 2036. But if it takes a simple majority... that would be 8 votes. So, at least 8 spots would go to the ACC (including 2 "?" from list above). That would leave 2 for everyone else.
Hope we get to 60 teams so all of this gets a bit easier... but we will see.
