The Offense?

[Aclone]

This just struck me last night.

I’ve been thinking, on a fairly short sighted level, about all the ways that the offense could be improved. Some smaller, some greater.

A. The offense could be improved by Brock not trying to carry the load. By not trying to be the only guy who makes plays.

*I can’t put a tangible number on that, aside from naturally eliminating turnovers—which foreshorten drives.

B. The additional running backs could add another dimension.

*As much as I love Kene, I think that an attuned Jirehl Brock will easily eclipse his contribution from the line of scrimmage. That’s 351 yards rushing.

*Which leaves Deon Silas, Eli Sanders and Rory Walling to surpass Jirehl and Johnny Lang’s ‘21 yardage: 48 yards rushing, plus 64 yards receiving…when I add in Kene’s 22.

C. The tight ends are going to have a different mix, and it’s hard to get a read on that.

*For example, Dylan Soehner had 18 catches for 205 yards, but he’ll be replaced by some combination of Easton Dean, Jared Rus and DeShawn Hanikah. Rus is more likely to run the ball than Soehner or Seonbuchner, and Dean and Hanikah are downfield threats.

So, even if you assume that Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen’s contributions remain static (I don’t)…does TE production overall improve?

D. The offensive line gets Trevor Downing back. At this point, I have no idea how it’s going to shake out, but everyone is back.

*I’m going to wildly throw a number out there, and say that the OL’s production and efficiency is improved by 10%.

That, of course, factors into how well the other units, the skill position units, are enabled to perform.

E. The Wide Receivers. This is the really big one. Starting with Xavier Hutchinson fully integrated into the offense from Day One—and having four or five other guys completely healthy.

*X caught 64 passes for 771 yards in ‘20. It’s hard not to see him stepping both numbers up by 5%. At least. Well, that’s only 67 catches over 12 games.

*As effectively the M last season, Landon Akers caught 18 passes for 269 yards and a TD. For comparison’s sake, a healthy Tarique Milton caught 35 passes for 722 yards and three TD’s in ‘19…a season that Deshaunte Jones caught 76 passes at the M spot.

Should Tarique catch a mere 54 passes this fall, this season, that’s a 300% improvement…not to mention the commensurate yardage and TD’s.

*A hobbled Sean Shaw was the third WR in ‘20, with 21 catches for 212 yards and a TD. The year before, La’Michael Pettway had 55 catches for 676 yards and six TD’s in that role. If my math is right, someone equaling that would be a 262% improvement in catches alone.

I’m reasonably sure that a fully focused Joe Scates would mean a whole lot more yardage and TD’s than Pettway put up.

Just with those three contributions, 67+54+55 equals a projected 176 catches from the top three wideouts. That’s almost a 210% improvement (209.5%) improvement over 2019.

Whoah. A 200% (or more) improvement from the wideouts? And that isn’t even considering the contributions from Shaw, Darren Wilson, Daniel Jackson, Jaylin Noel and etc…which are bound to be more than the combined 20 catches the next four guys (Scates, Milton, Wilson and Bitters) put up last year.

So…let’s jump a couple steps, and just consider possibilities enabled.

Last year, the offense averaged 32.9 PPG. If my math is correct, scoring 40 PPG would be a 21.5% overall improvement. Is that really so far fetched?

I mean…that could really happen.

 

[clonedude]

The biggest thing for me would be to eliminate all the stupid penalties at crucial times…. the false starts, the illegal formations, the WRs lining up offsides, etc, etc.

Just clean that up and you will see a vast improvement.

I would also still like to see a lot more downfield routes and throws. Defenses really only have to cover the first 10-15 yds from the line of scrimmage against us. We need to keep them honest by at least showing the ability to throw the ball deep on them once in a while.

 

[FerShizzle]

Having a consistent down field threat at receiver was all the offense was missing last year. X and the TEs and Milton were all mostly running routes underneath the safeties.

 

[tman24]

I hope we never see an illegal formation all season.

 

[stateofmind]

I hope we never see an illegal formation all season.

This was the biggest issue last season. Hopefully Scates has that ruling down, and hopefully we don't have an 89 lining up the same side as Kolar. I think there were a couple of bad calls because Kolar and Soehner were hard to differentiate at game speed.

 

[jrastrel]

That is a good post aclone! One of the biggest things IMO that can help the offense is having better special teams. Our special teams cost us so many yards in field position by giving up returns and basically getting no yards back on punt returns. With improvements in kicking/coverage game and some semblance of a punt return game, we would fare much better in the field position battle and our point production would have a solid increase.

I also agree with the false starts/illegal formation. Those always would seem to come at the worst times (red zone and short yardage).

 

[Clonehomer]

Having a consistent down field threat at receiver was all the offense was missing last year. X and the TEs and Milton were all mostly running routes underneath the safeties.

Can Sean Shaw be a Hakeem Butler type player for us? Doesn't need to catch a lot of passes, just enough to keep those safeties off the line of scrimmage. Or do any of the newcomers fit that mold?

 

[superiorcyclone]

We did not have a receiver that could high point a deep ball last year. That would help. Improved O-Line play will make everyone look better, as always. If J Brock runs like he blocks he will be fun to watch this year.

 

[madguy30]

ISU imo was at their best when they played within their abilities: Purdy just playing catch to move the sticks, short yardage let Hall do the same, don't get caught up in trying to outpace the opponents' defensive tactics or do something that looks like it's hardly been even worked on.

I'd like to see if there have actually been receivers open on the deep balls because on TV it usually looks like the db is waiting for an underthrown ball.

 

[cyclonevac]

All very astute observations. Not to be a smart ass, but do you think that Campbell and Manning are not aware of these observations. One tries to recruit to fill these holes. I wholeheartedly feel that these problems are being addressed in a manner as aggressive as possible

 

[Cyclonepride]

It will be interesting to see how they use the newly available talent in the receiving corp. It should open up the field overall, though we got really, really good last year at working out of our heavy formations to both pass and run. Might see more 2 TE sets than 3.

 

[VeloClone]

...

C. The tight ends are going to have a different mix, and it’s hard to get a read on that.

*For example, Dylan Soehner had 18 catches for 205 yards, but he’ll be replaced by some combination of Easton Dean, Jared Rus and DeShawn Hanikah. Rus is more likely to run the ball than Soehner or Seonbuchner, and Dean and Hanikah are downfield threats.

So, even if you assume that Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen’s contributions remain static (I don’t)…does TE production overall improve?
...

You failed to account for Soehner's passing in your TE stats. Which TE is filling that gap? I would assume it is Easton Dean...



On a more serious note, when you start talking about offensive improvement and adding yardage and production you have to keep in mind that there is a finite amount of game clock - and by extension - plays. You can see improvement but at some point additional usage and yardage from one position group comes at the expense of another position group. There is only one ball.

 

[usedcarguy]

We could most certainly score 40 per game. My analysis is much simpler:

1. Gains in S&C are going to be huge. Not only is most everyone back, but with rare exception they are all bigger/stronger/faster. We're also healthy. We were at our strongest last year in the 4th quarter of games and late in the season. This is the inverse of previous Campbell teams.

2. The offensive line. For what last year eventually turned into a solid unit despite injuries, it's went from our Achilles heal to a unit with 11 guys who can start. Obviously we can't play them all, but if they decide to start rotating to keep the starters fresh, look out.

When an offense can control the line of scrimmage, good things happen. When the people around them are bigger and faster and harder to tackle, even better things happen.

 

[Aclone]

On a more serious note, when you start talking about offensive improvement and adding yardage and production you have to keep in mind that there is a finite amount of game clock - and by extension - plays. You can see improvement but at some point additional usage and yardage from one position group comes at the expense of another position group. There is only one ball.

Actually, I decided the dang thing was long enough.

The offense will get more touches if special teams put the in a better position for the defense to be successful, if the defense is even slightly improved—and if the offense itself is more efficient.

Not enough time…

 

[Billups06]

ISU imo was at their best when they played within their abilities: Purdy just playing catch to move the sticks, short yardage let Hall do the same, don't get caught up in trying to outpace the opponents' defensive tactics or do something that looks like it's hardly been even worked on.

I'd like to see if there have actually been receivers open on the deep balls because on TV it usually looks like the db is waiting for an underthrown ball.

Similar thoughts as well. That was an area of improvement for Purdy last year. I believe Jay opined that Purdy waits a bit too long to let deep passes fly, decreasing separation between WR and DB. Purdy's deep throws do seem to be a tad underthrown, on both completed and incomplete passes (in my completely amateur opinion).

 

[VeloClone]

essful,
Actually, I decided the dang thing was long enough.

The offense will get more touches if special teams put the in a better position for the defense to be successful, if the defense is even slightly improved—and if the offense itself is more efficient.

Not enough time…

Absolutely. I'm not saying that there can't be a significant increase in production, It just isn't likely going to be a one for one addition as the totals grow since there will start to be cannibalism between position groups and even players within position groups.

 

[stormchaser2014]

Well I'll start of by saying this: Do not blame that game on the defense, ok?

 

[t-noah]

That is a good post aclone! One of the biggest things IMO that can help the offense is having better special teams. Our special teams cost us so many yards in field position by giving up returns and basically getting no yards back on punt returns. With improvements in kicking/coverage game and some semblance of a punt return game, we would fare much better in the field position battle and our point production would have a solid increase.

I also agree with the false starts/illegal formation. Those always would seem to come at the worst times (red zone and short yardage).

I was thinking the same. You know the saying, "a good offense is a good 'special teams'!" I'm excited to see who they unveil to replace Kene with kick/punt returns. Kene came thru big last year. Can we repeat some of that magic?

Also can we kickoff into the endzone more often and have good kick/punt coverage?

Can Sean Shaw be a Hakeem Butler type player for us? Doesn't need to catch a lot of passes, just enough to keep those safeties off the line of scrimmage. Or do any of the newcomers fit that mold?

We did not have a receiver that could high point a deep ball last year. That would help. Improved O-Line play will make everyone look better, as always. If J Brock runs like he blocks he will be fun to watch this year.

Shaw would be a good guess to high point some deep balls. But just the deep speed threat we might have this year is very interesting, X, Scates, Milton, Wilson, Noel, etc. I would think the defense would have to respect that and play honest.

You failed to account for Soehner's passing in your TE stats. Which TE is filling that gap? I would assume it is Easton Dean...

"...backward pass to Dean, who throws a long pass to Chase Allen! Touchdown Iowa State! What a play!"

 

[cyclone1209]

Having a consistent down field threat at receiver was all the offense was missing last year. X and the TEs and Milton were all mostly running routes underneath the safeties.

To me the offense comes down to:
- Can Brock play the season like he did the last 5 games? If yes then we can be a playoff team
- Continued great play by O line
- A #2 RB to emerge (I disagree with original posters take on Kene, Kene was great in backup duty and a guaranteed 5 yards a pop, that's what got him drafted)
- We need a really good WR to step up to get teams to not double Xavier H

 

[werdnamanhill]

To me the offense comes down to:
- Can Brock play the season like he did the last 5 games? If yes then we can be a playoff team
- Continued great play by O line
- A #2 RB to emerge (I disagree with original posters take on Kene, Kene was great in backup duty and a guaranteed 5 yards a pop, that's what got him drafted)
- We need a really good WR to step up to get teams to not double Xavier H

By all accounts Jirehl is legit