The latter option makes no sense when the B1G, ACC and PAC 12 have no incentive to help the SEC out, and every reason in the world to hope that they're soaked in the buyout, and afterwards can go ahead and add teams if they want them.
Out of the three I agree the B1G doesn't have very much incentive to help, which is why I don't think KU & ISU to the B1G is likely at all. While I don't think its a strong likelihood I think if one of the P2 teams is convinced to take KU & ISU I think its more likely the SEC because they were the ones who got UT & OU.
The ACC on the other hand is paid solely by ESPN for their T1 & T2 deals and the ACCN. They are pretty much tied at the hip and if ESPN adds a little money to their deal which is locked in for a long time, I doubt the ACC puts up much fight. Especially if adding a couple of Texas schools got them carriage of the ACC Network in Texas. ESPN can
Yes, ESPN only owns half the PAC but their deal comes up soon. I'm not sure leaving their content off ESPN helps their already dwindling national attention. Then add that their network has floundered. If the PACN wises up and sells half its interest to ESPN or FOX, again adding Texas as a state and getting in state subscription rates would be big for them and to a lesser extent adding a couple other states along with it.
Maybe the PAC would say no to ESPN but I doubt it. They need exposure and increased tv revenues.