I have you down for believing they'll stay in the Big 12 for the duration of the GoR. I'm going the other way.
IOWA STATE TO BIG TEN?!? Dave Wannstedt thinks so.
- Thread starter cyclone4L
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I have you down for believing they'll stay in the Big 12 for the duration of the GoR. I'm going the other way.
They won't be if they think they're getting out of the GOR by purchasing 8 Jelly of the Month Club memberships.
I did not say that. I said that the other schools will make them pay and pay the maximum. There is no incentive whatsoever to do any less. The only way UT/OU can minimize the exit fee is to stay more years. They leave right now, their value is $200M. They wait until 2025, they only pay $80M. They will determine what amount in between that maximizes their revenue.
I don't think @Gonzo is saying it will be cheap. But I'm with him. They aren't going to play out the string after this year.
I'm also not saying that is a bad thing.
So lets contemplate this scenario, in an accelerated timeline, of hypotheticals that could be at play or could come to be.
Considering Wandstadt's comments.
Timeline is completely just thrown out there not how fast I think it would go, but to make a point of a list of events.
Next Monday...PAC announces they intend to explore expansion, closely followed by similar statements by the B1G and ACC.
Tuesday, the schools mentioned give notice in no particular order to the Big 12 they intend to explore moving to another conference.
Wednesday, the conferences as laid out announce intentions to add schools mentioned applications sent.
Thursday, conferences vote to add schools mentioned to respective conference....Beginning in 2025, Unless something is negotiated b4.
Friday... all schools are announced as future members of those conferences but intend to honor current GOR to hold OuT in the Big 12 unless they pay buyout.
Saturday...TX and OU settle to leave conference early, by paying remaining schools a reduced cost.
Sunday.... Schools vote to dissolve the Big 12 and move to new conferences beginning at date agreed.
Monday... Any remaining schools if not already picked up apply to AAC, such schools will get extra share of OuT buyout pay, since it really was OuT that caused this.
Considering Wandstadt's comments.
Timeline is completely just thrown out there not how fast I think it would go, but to make a point of a list of events.
Next Monday...PAC announces they intend to explore expansion, closely followed by similar statements by the B1G and ACC.
Tuesday, the schools mentioned give notice in no particular order to the Big 12 they intend to explore moving to another conference.
Wednesday, the conferences as laid out announce intentions to add schools mentioned applications sent.
Thursday, conferences vote to add schools mentioned to respective conference....Beginning in 2025, Unless something is negotiated b4.
Friday... all schools are announced as future members of those conferences but intend to honor current GOR to hold OuT in the Big 12 unless they pay buyout.
Saturday...TX and OU settle to leave conference early, by paying remaining schools a reduced cost.
Sunday.... Schools vote to dissolve the Big 12 and move to new conferences beginning at date agreed.
Monday... Any remaining schools if not already picked up apply to AAC, such schools will get extra share of OuT buyout pay, since it really was OuT that caused this.
I don't think they'll end up paying anywhere near $200m each after leaving next season.
You're living up to your name.
What you mean it won't be that fast?
edit: I guess I could have just numbered the steps instead of using days of the week. LOL
The schools may not, but the overall compensation won’t be too far off when you add Disney’s exposure
Oh, I don't think OUT is waiting out the GOR, either. I just think OUT, SEC, and ESPN think they're getting out on the cheap, and a number of people have parroted this line of thinking. They're not - even if it's not the $200 mil per.
It will be hard for me to root against Lazard and Montgomery, but I will try.
They're probably just hoping a crack appears and the solidarity of the remainder 8 breaks, so they save money. I don't think it will especially based on how the other conferences have taken a strong stand against the SEC.
How do you see this going down? When the B12 rules have UT and OU on the hook for two years worth of distributions plus three years worth of media rights to leave after this year - the B12 distributions piece is about $150MM combined, and the three years of media rights in the SEC is worth $400MM combined to UT/OU and about $240MM combined in the Big 12. $400MM combined is a realistic settlement demand to have them walk after this year, and I think it’s way too rich even for OU and UT’s blood.
I could definitely see agreement on a smaller figure IF the other schools all (or mostly all) had landing spots figured out. If the 8 schools were splitting $300MM, KU and ISU could just walk over to the B1G office and plunk down their $75MM, or any four of them could do the same with the Pac-12 and $150MM to get in.
But if there is nowhere to go, the best move for the 8 is going to be to maintain the status quo as long as possible and try to find somewhere to go. And OU and UT are simply not going to walk without a settlement first on the GOR, since they could lose (probably would lose) and ESPN would find itself at the center of the legal dispute that it does not want to be in.
I think that the other three conferences have come to the realization with how absolutely scummy this whole thing was done and what ESPN's plans for the remaining members of the conference (stick them in the AAC at a discounted price) that it's only a matter of time before ESPN and the SEC monopolize college football, which means they're next. Which is why they've put a stop to the CFB playoff expansion (knowing that ESPN wants to give the SEC at least half the spots) as well as isolated their ability to schedule quality opponents outside of their own conference going forward.
I see it going down like this... OuT leave after this season and then try weaseling out of paying the full amount or anywhere near the full amount, and drag it into some kind of mediation process at which point the lawyers get involved. I think they'll drag it on as long as they can hoping the Big 12 caves first.
For the record, I hope SECESPN loses.
I don't think it's likely that anyone else will find a soft landing soon, certainly not everyone, so...
The BIG XII should do a few things.
1. Add two teams immediately and go back to a north and south. (Cinc, Mem?)
2. The final four games of the season must be in your division.
3. Plan for the departure of UT & OU
4. Invite two teams to the south, subject to UT/OU departure schedule
5. Stay in talks with other teams in case someone get's lucky and jumps.
The BIG XII should do a few things.
1. Add two teams immediately and go back to a north and south. (Cinc, Mem?)
2. The final four games of the season must be in your division.
3. Plan for the departure of UT & OU
4. Invite two teams to the south, subject to UT/OU departure schedule
5. Stay in talks with other teams in case someone get's lucky and jumps.
Thats it? You cant fund very many stadium projects with that and leave yourself much to eat. Especially after Uncle Sam takes his share.
if OU and UT just bail without a settlement they would be facing a likely loss on the GOR. Which means they’d add zero value to the SEC for three years if they lost that court case. They would go from $50MM a year in TV money to $0 for three years. I kind of hope whoever is making the decisions at those schools is thinking like you because the 8 would get the most money out of them this way.
