IOWA STATE TO BIG TEN?!? Dave Wannstedt thinks so.

[jdoggivjc]

Okay, then what do you think his plan is?

See the post below yours. If the plan was to expand with those teams you don’t need someone like Oliver Luck to do that.

 

[clonehome]

This is all going to take months if not years to figure out.

B1G TV deal is coming up soon, as the PAC. That will probably drive the next set of moves. The Big12 may need to stay intact for another season.

I think the Big 12 stays in tact for 4 more seasons unless OU, UT and ESPN are willing to pay a very large sum to the remaining 8 schools. Most likely a sum that is a multiple of what they would like to pay and thought they would pay. It’s going to be WAY bigger than the $75 mil x 2 = $150 mil that’s being talked about. I’m looking forward to Iowa State joining the B1G or some other post-NCAA regional conference in 2025.

 

[Tri4Cy]

You are only looking at half, or probably much less than half of the picture.

While I agree in a vacuum adding ISU and say Okie St. would be hard-pressed to increase the media revenue of the PAC by more than $32M each. However, when you look at the massive infrastructure and carriage fees at stake for ESPN, and to a much lesser extent Fox, it becomes pretty clear that it may be far more about loss avoidance than boosting revenue.

In other words, if ISU and Okie St. get relegated to a lesser league, these are high viewership teams that even a marginal decrease in ESPN subscriptions would be a huge loss to ESPN. It very well could be that the losses ESPN avoid are far greater than the gap in per team revenue added.

In other words, the value of keeping some (maybe even all) of these teams in major conferences is quite possibly far greater than the simple added per team revenue. Assuming ESPN, ESPN2, FS1, FS2, ESPN+ etc. subscriptions stay static if teams that draw good TV numbers like ISU, Okie St. are demoted to G5 status is a really bad assumption, and I highly doubt these networks think that. So that has to be considered in the math.

For example, if these moves relegate enough teams to lose interest, and even just 500,000 viewers nationwide no longer subscribe to packages that include the ESPN family of networks, that's a loss of roughly $55 million per year in carriage fees alone. This says nothing of the reduced viewership and subsequent reduction in ad value. That is hard to quantify for a clown on the internet, but I will say that it is significant for teams like ISU and Okie St., considering their game outdrew Notre Dame-Pitt on ABC head to head by 300k viewers.

So what seems most likely to happen is it's going to look like ESPN is "overpaying" conferences for the addition of some of the Big 12 leftovers, but only because people are looking at this simply, and equating value ONLY as additional revenue to the conference. When ESPNs value of maintaining interest in some of these teams includes not only the increased revenue from that inventory, but the avoided loss in carriage fees and ad value be reducing interest in these teams. Plus throw in the incentive to facilitate the OU and UT to SEC move, and there become three components of value to these teams.

This is the direction my thinking has been taking me and you've done a good job articulating it. It is going to be extremely difficult for ANY conference to bring in a new team that "moves the needle" or increases their average revenue imho. The ND and USC's are potential's but USC for example moving out of the PAC would then drop the value of the PAC contracts based on current logic and now that conference is ****** too.

Broadcasters have two ways of making money. Selling a quality product that maximizes revenue or having volume/inventory. SEC seems to be chasing the the smaller numbers but biggest quality "brands". However, does the inventory from that conference saturate the market sufficiently? I don't think so. There would still be a significant amount of demand as I don't see many college football fans really giving a **** about the SEC.

Sure the current value of OUUT is sky high in the BigXII and them leaving us immediately reduces the value of the contract, but doesn't it also subsequently increase the value of each of the remaining schools because they fill the void of needed inventory? I don't think it's a perfectly linear reduction in value like everyone talks about. If that were the case, then you are implying that if the SEC added enough teams then the value of all other teams would be zero...and that's just not true.

Getting back to my first comment, a team like ISU to the B1G is not something that is going to add value from a "they add more value than our conference average so all teams benefit" standpoint but more more along the lines of they add ENOUGH value to provide quality games and give our conference more inventory to sell preventing OTHER conferences from having that inventory which our media partners may eventually choose over us. Not all pharmaceuticals being purchased by the likes of Pfizer are being bought because they are amazing brands that Pfizer wants partner with. It's often because the Pfizer's of the world want to control the market and own the inventory to sell to the public.

 

[AppleCornCy]

The "Jamie P" is really the icing on the cake here.

Wannstedt prefaces his comments with “I don’t have anything, you know, that’s factual.”

I’m afraid that might sum it up. Everything he said after that was the same kind of speculation you can find on any message board.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

See the post below yours. If the plan was to expand with those teams you don’t need someone like Oliver Luck to do that.

This isn't like last time around. Bowlsby has done a fine job, this isn't like the whole Beebe situation. Bowlsby tried to get OU and UT on board with expansion a few years back but OU backed out last minute. What else could he do? How should he have seen this coming when the entire country was blind sided by the OU/UT deal. He even tried to get Fox and ESPN to negotiate the next GOR early but he was told no. Looking back I imagine that was mostly ESPN since they were already in bed with OU, UT, and the SEC.

 

[Cydkar]

I've always said that when a man with a moustache talks you listen!

 

[Trice]

Just spit balling here but something I've been thinking a lot about is the Entertainment District. Could it be possible for JP to use this as a selling point/conference revenue source to help sweeten the deal for Iowa State?

You mean to convince a conference to pick us up? It's a nice example of Pollard's forward thinking, but it's still very much in its infancy and whether it goes forward might depend on whether we land in a major conference. Doesn't seem likely to change anyone's opinion one way or another.

 

[AuH2O]

It’s like you don’t understand why all these conferences are “likely” not to expand - do you honestly think any of these conferences want to get pulled into the legal issues that are currently going on between the Big 12 and OuT and SECSPN? Nobody’s going to touch what’s left of the Big 12 until all of this is currently resolved, and then after that is when the conference will get divided up and cease to exist.

I almost don't see how any league could expand right now. It seems like they absolutely can't (at least with the remaining Big 12 schools) due to the legal issues. I will be shocked if there is any other statement than the PAC isn't expanding now, they like their 12, blah blah blah, but they'll revisit as changes in future conditions dictate. Honestly I don't see how it can be anything but this.

 

[Gorm]

(5) The water

Hooray!

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

You mean to convince a conference to pick us up? It's a nice example of Pollard's forward thinking, but it's still very much in its infancy and whether it goes forward might depend on whether we land in a major conference. Doesn't seem likely to change anyone's opinion one way or another.

No, Iowa State would foot the bill for it but then kick back a certain percentage of the revenue to the conference. I'm not saying it's going to be a boatload of money but could it sweeten the deal? Is this something that other schools could explore, etc?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Wannstedt prefaces his comments with “I don’t have anything, you know, that’s factual.”

I’m afraid that might sum it up. Everything he said after that was the same kind of speculation you can find on any message board.

Maybe a message board composed of Fox Sports employees...

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

 

[jdoggivjc]

This isn't like last time around. Bowlsby has done a fine job, this isn't like the whole Beebe situation. Bowlsby tried to get OU and UT on board with expansion a few years back but OU backed out last minute. What else could he do? How should he have seen this coming when the entire country was blind sided by the OU/UT deal. He even tried to get Fox and ESPN to negotiate the next GOR early but he was told no. Looking back I imagine that was mostly ESPN since they were already in bed with OU, UT, and the SEC.

I’ve never been the biggest Bowlsby fan, but this whole thing isn’t his fault. I mean, nobody outside of an inner circle knew this was going on until A&M spilled the beans (and I can’t help but think that was done intentionally as one final jab at the school they hate the most). I’m not going to be mad at Bowlsby because he’s not a fortune teller.

 

[jcyclonee]

Wannstedt prefaces his comments with “I don’t have anything, you know, that’s factual.”

I’m afraid that might sum it up. Everything he said after that was the same kind of speculation you can find on any message board.

This is true but he probably does have at least a little more insight than the rest of us idiots that are posting on a message board.

Well, not all of us are idiots but I certainly am.

 

[ILikeTurtles]

I don't understand that math. There are two teams. There would be two additional games each week EXCEPT for the one week where KU and ISU would play each other.

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[JM4CY]

I’ve never been the biggest Bowlsby fan, but this whole thing isn’t his fault. I mean, nobody outside of an inner circle knew this was going on until A&M spilled the beans (and I can’t help but think that was done intentionally as one final jab at the school they hate the most). I’m not going to be mad at Bowlsby because he’s not a fortune teller.

I am not as pissed as I originally was but the complete blindsidedness that Bowlsby had about all this still does not sit right or well with me.

 

[Cloneon]

I almost don't see how any league could expand right now. It seems like they absolutely can't (at least with the remaining Big 12 schools) due to the legal issues. I will be shocked if there is any other statement than the PAC isn't expanding now, they like their 12, blah blah blah, but they'll revisit as changes in future conditions dictate. Honestly I don't see how it can be anything but this.

AND, you can bet one thing for sure. They've already got a plan in place when that time comes.

 

[NorthCyd]

I don't understand that math. There are two teams. There would be two additional games each week EXCEPT for the one week where KU and ISU would play each other.

 

[JM4CY]

View attachment 88540

I would honestly be curious as to how much tail that guy has gotten through the years. What's the O/U?

 

[Cyclones1969]

Wannstedt prefaces his comments with “I don’t have anything, you know, that’s factual.”

I’m afraid that might sum it up. Everything he said after that was the same kind of speculation you can find on any message board.

Yep. You’re absolutely right.

to quote Apollo Creed in Rocky III. It’s over. It’s all over