Latest Bracketology

Lafaester54

Well-Known Member
Mar 18, 2011
743
543
93
Colorado/Arizona
I'm not as scared about Purdue as others I guess. Their offense is literally the best in the country, but their defense is NOT good...it's 119th. If a similar gritty defensive team like Rutgers can beat them...Iowa State can beat them too.
I think Rutgers is a good comparison. Defense oriented and really only two scoring threats.
 
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dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2007
16,188
25,041
113
Minneapolis
Curious what seed you would give the following teams. No right or wrong answers just want to see because these teams have a wide range of seeds by the 'experts'.

Providence
Wisconsin
Texas
UCLA
Iowa State
Iowa
LSU
St. Mary's
Creighton
Xavier
UCONN
Houston
Michigan State
Marquette
Colorado State
Murray State
 

jdoggivjc

Well-Known Member
Sep 27, 2006
61,630
23,888
113
Macomb, MI
But his writeup is as stupid as can be. "ISU's in the tourney but need to win 2 more to be secure . . ." Give me a break.

View attachment 96171

Yeah, we are only at 98.6% odds of making it in so I guess we need to win 2 more to get to 99.9%

View attachment 96172

If our spot in the tournament was tenuous he wouldn't have us as a 7-seed - he'd have us as a 9 or a 10.

In other words, he's talking out of his ass.
 

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2007
16,188
25,041
113
Minneapolis
Curious what seed you would give the following teams. No right or wrong answers just want to see because these teams have a wide range of seeds by the 'experts'.

Providence
Wisconsin
Texas
UCLA
Iowa State
Iowa
LSU
St. Mary's
Creighton
Xavier
UCONN
Houston
Michigan State
Marquette
Colorado State
Murray State
Mine would be:

Providence - first 3 seed...if win Big East tourney they deserve 2
Wisconsin - 3
Texas - 5
UCLA - 5
Iowa State - 6
Iowa - 9
LSU - 7
St. Mary's - 7
Creighton - 8
Xavier - 11/play in
UCONN - 5
Houston - 7
Michigan State - 7
Marquette - 8
Colorado State - 8
Murray State - 8
 

cyclones500

Well-Known Member
Jan 29, 2010
38,841
26,881
113
Michigan
basslakebeacon.com
Curious what seed you would give the following teams. No right or wrong answers just want to see because these teams have a wide range of seeds by the 'experts'.

Providence
Wisconsin
Texas
UCLA
Iowa State
Iowa
LSU
St. Mary's
Creighton
Xavier
UCONN
Houston
Michigan State
Marquette
Colorado State
Murray State

This is how I have it. Not claiming I'm an expert, but I do armchair bracket throughout season, so I track it consistently. A few I could move up or down a line.

Providence 3
Wisconsin 3
Texas 5
UCLA 4
Iowa State 7
Iowa 8/9
LSU 6
St. Mary's 6
Creighton 10
Xavier 9
UCONN 5
Houston 5
Michigan State 7
Marquette 7
Colorado State 8
Murray State 8
 
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Neptune78

Well-Known Member
Aug 12, 2020
3,491
3,443
113
East of Neptune, IA.
This is how I have it. Not claiming I'm an expert, but I do armchair bracket throughout season, so I track it consistently. A few I could move up or down a line.

Providence 3
Wisconsin 3
Texas 5
UCLA 4
Iowa State 7
Iowa 8/9
LSU 6
St. Mary's 6
Creighton 10
Xavier 9
UCONN 5
Houston 5
Michigan State 7
Marquette 7
Colorado State 8
Murray State 8
Not bad.
UCONN and Marquette might a spot or two too high.
 
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BillBrasky4Cy

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Dec 10, 2013
17,481
31,794
113
Yeah, definitely need to take care of OSU (or Baylor), or I think we risk dropping to 8

Saturday took Iowa State off the 8 line, their resume is too strong in comparison to the other teams in that seed range. The committee is going to value the Big 12 teams more than the metrics have. I remember this happening during the Hoiberg era, basically every Big 12 team outside of Kansas was bumped up either one or two seed lines that what everyone was predicting.
 
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cyIclSoneU

Well-Known Member
Apr 7, 2016
3,300
4,562
113
I think if we beat OSU we are going to get a 7 at worst. If we go to Selection Sunday on a 3 game losing streak we will be in that 8-9 game.

If we beat OSU, lose at Baylor, beat Texas in KC before losing to Kansas, we have a shot at a 6. And if we beat either Baylor or Kansas in this scenario I would think a 6 is maybe even the most likely outcome. Given the comparative talent levels, it would be insane to me for this team to get the same seed as the 2018-19 team. But that is what coaching can do.
 

CoachHines3

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Oct 29, 2019
9,577
19,555
113
Curious what seed you would give the following teams. No right or wrong answers just want to see because these teams have a wide range of seeds by the 'experts'.

Providence
Wisconsin
Texas
UCLA
Iowa State
Iowa
LSU
St. Mary's
Creighton
Xavier
UCONN
Houston
Michigan State
Marquette
Colorado State
Murray State
Providence - 3
Wisconsin-3
Texas- 4
UCLA- 4
Iowa State- 7
Iowa- 8
LSU- 7
St. Mary's- 7
Creighton- 9
Xavier- 10
UCONN- 5
Houston- 4
Michigan State- 7
Marquette - 8
Colorado State- 9
Murray State-8
 
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Cyclonepride

Thought Police
Staff member
Apr 11, 2006
98,836
62,399
113
55
A pineapple under the sea
www.oldschoolradical.com
Saturday took Iowa State of the 8 line, their resume is too strong in comparison to the other teams in that seed range. The committee is going to value the Big 12 teams more than the metrics have. I remember this happening during the Hoiberg era, basically every Big 12 team outside of Kansas was bumped up either one or two seed lines that what everyone was predicting.

I agree. I just hate leaving it to (somewhat) to chance. Plus, more importantly, a win keeps the momentum going.
 

cyIclSoneU

Well-Known Member
Apr 7, 2016
3,300
4,562
113
If we get a 7-10 seed, we will be in a first weekend site with a 1 or 2 seed. Using Bracket Matrix right now as a seed list, this is where those games would be played.

1. Gonzaga - Portland
1. Arizona - San Diego
1. Kansas - Fort Worth
1. Auburn - Greenville

2. Baylor - Fort Worth
2. Kentucky - Indianapolis
2. Purdue - Indianapolis
2. Duke - Greenville

I don't know the rules about whether we can even be with Kansas or Baylor (or if the committee would try to separate us even if we technically can), but I assume not, so if we get a 7 seed the most likely first weekend location would be Indy in either Kentucky or Purdue's region.
 

JD720

Well-Known Member
Jan 3, 2009
958
285
63
If we get a 7-10 seed, we will be in a first weekend site with a 1 or 2 seed. Using Bracket Matrix right now as a seed list, this is where those games would be played.

1. Gonzaga - Portland
1. Arizona - San Diego
1. Kansas - Fort Worth
1. Auburn - Greenville

2. Baylor - Fort Worth
2. Kentucky - Indianapolis
2. Purdue - Indianapolis
2. Duke - Greenville

I don't know the rules about whether we can even be with Kansas or Baylor (or if the committee would try to separate us even if we technically can), but I assume not, so if we get a 7 seed the most likely first weekend location would be Indy in either Kentucky or Purdue's region.
They try to avoid conference matchups that early, but Michigan State played Minnesota in the 2nd round a couple of years ago (in Des Moines), so there doesn't appear to be a rule against it. They only played each other once in the regular season that year, so that may have played a part as well.
 

cyclones500

Well-Known Member
Jan 29, 2010
38,841
26,881
113
Michigan
basslakebeacon.com
They try to avoid conference matchups that early, but Michigan State played Minnesota in the 2nd round a couple of years ago (in Des Moines), so there doesn't appear to be a rule against it. They only played each other once in the regular season that year, so that may have played a part as well.

Your example of MSU/Minnesota is correct due to # of times teams played in regular season.

A summary I found (this is from 2018, I assume all still applies; some revisions were made in 2021 but that was unique because of pandemic):

Teams from the same conference may not meet prior to the Sweet 16 if they played twice during the regular season, including the conference tournament. They cannot meet before the Elite Eight if they played one another three times in the regular season. They may meet in the second round if they played only once, but the committee will do what it can to avoid such matchups. The committee also avoids non-conference rematches in the first round. They are allowed if bracketing principles force it, but those cases are rare.
 
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dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2007
16,188
25,041
113
Minneapolis
If we get a 7-10 seed, we will be in a first weekend site with a 1 or 2 seed. Using Bracket Matrix right now as a seed list, this is where those games would be played.

1. Gonzaga - Portland
1. Arizona - San Diego
1. Kansas - Fort Worth
1. Auburn - Greenville

2. Baylor - Fort Worth
2. Kentucky - Indianapolis
2. Purdue - Indianapolis
2. Duke - Greenville

I don't know the rules about whether we can even be with Kansas or Baylor (or if the committee would try to separate us even if we technically can), but I assume not, so if we get a 7 seed the most likely first weekend location would be Indy in either Kentucky or Purdue's region.

This is where you hope if ISU does end up a 7 seed that Wisconsin wins the Big Ten and does well in their tourney, moving into a 2 seed in Milwaukee and ISU getting placed there as well. Palm has this very scenario in his most recent bracket.