Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

isucy86

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I don’t think it’s ever really been about the Big 12 “poaching” PAC 12 schools. All things being equal the PAC would prefer to stick together. No question. There isn’t any real want from any school to move to the Big 12, otherwise they would have already.

But things aren’t equal. It’s clear as day the PAC 12 will take a hit on money, exposure, or both on this next media deal compared to the Big 12. They also have 2 schools that are a very real threat to leave for greener pastures at some point within the next 5 or 6 years. So, then it’s just an internal wrestling match of ok; do we do what we want to do personally, or do what we should do financially

Agree. I don't think many Presidents & Athletic Directors doubt the future of P5 is is 2 financial tiers of conferences:

Tier 1: Big10/SEC
Tier 2: Big12/Pac10/ACC

IMO the Big10 & SEC can continue as separate conferences, but eventually would seem like streaming subscription based media companies (ESPN+/Apple/Amazon) would prefer the higher inventory of games that a combined Big12/Pac10/ACC could bring vs. 2 or 3 standalone conferences.

Part of the slowness of the Pac12 to accept this reality is some schools are hoping they can sneak into the Big10 and not be relegated to financial Tier 2. Obviously Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford still have Big10 aspirations. And I would expect schools in large metros like Utah and ASU might feel they have a shot based on the BTN carriage revenue model. Could the Big10 only take: Oregon, Washington, 1 bay area school and then ASU or Utah?
 

laminak

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Utah is just a state to go skiing in. Get past that level and it’s just a crazy cult. If I could erase Mormonism or Scientology I would have a hard time deciding.

Simple, Scientology to be erased every time over the other. Mormons were actually cool with the Book of Mormon musical and seem to not care when clowned on. Scientology on the other hand raised a bigs stink on their South Park episode, threatened to sue, and got a cast member to quit. Scientology is notorious for lawsuits and following and exposing ”hostile” people.

While both are cults, one is wacky and the other is wacky + dangerous.
 

exCyDing

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There has been alot of risk assumption being made by the PAC, most of which has not offered positive reward. The schools are at the mercy of the conference, until they are not. Each school now has an easy way out without financial risk. The school will need to evaluate and determine if loyalty to the conference trumps financial upset. The biggest issue raised above is you have a life raft now. Markets will change in 3-5 years, are you willing to sign a lower deal now hoping the PAC survives, and if not the raft still has air in it. Especially knowing Wash and OR want out ASAP.
WAOR want out, but there's no guarantee the B10 will invite them soon, later or ever. Until that invite comes, there's no guarantee.

Giant institutions need time to make changes like this, there are a lot of processes and moving parts involved. Most conference changes have been announced 2+ years out and sometimes decided well before that. At the same time, they need a PAC deal to evaluate and compare to what the B12 offers. At some point, they're going to lose leverage if networks know they're past the point where they could realistically make the change in time.

It really seems like the PAC is dragging their feet on putting a deal in front of their members. I've no doubt they know what would keep everyone in the fold, and if they had a deal that met it, they'd present it. At present, I'd guess the offers they have would push at least some of the 4-6 schools that potentially have a landing spot in the B12 to make the jump.

At the same time, WAOR would likely drag their feet as long as possible hoping for a B10 invite to the point where I think they'd risk being forced into a really ****** ~5 year deal if it meant they could keep themselves open into 2024.
 
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exCyDing

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Utah is just a state to go skiing in. Get past that level and it’s just a crazy cult. If I could erase Mormonism or Scientology I would have a hard time deciding.
Scientologists are easy to get away from. Just tell them you're a Suppressive Person and they'll leave you alone.
 

Gonzo

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WAOR want out, but there's no guarantee the B10 will invite them soon, later or ever. Until that invite comes, there's no guarantee.

Giant institutions need time to make changes like this, there are a lot of processes and moving parts involved. Most conference changes have been announced 2+ years out and sometimes decided well before that. At the same time, they need a PAC deal to evaluate and compare to what the B12 offers. At some point, they're going to lose leverage if networks know they're past the point where they could realistically make the change in time.

It really seems like the PAC is dragging their feet on putting a deal in front of their members. I've no doubt they know what would keep everyone in the fold, and if they had a deal that met it, they'd present it. At present, I'd guess the offers they have would push at least some of the 4-6 schools that potentially have a landing spot in the B12 to make the jump.

At the same time, WAOR would likely drag their feet as long as possible hoping for a B10 invite to the point where I think they'd risk being forced into a really ****** ~5 year deal if it meant they could keep themselves open into 2024.
I'm a little surprised the B1G isn't showing interest in Colorado. Their football program has been in the dumps but they have a pretty rich history and there's lots of renewed energy with DS there. Denver's the #16 TV market. CU Boulder is an AAU school. It's contiguous with Nebby and would close the geographic gap (albeit slightly) between Cali. Could be me but seems like they'd be a natural fit after the add of USCLA.
 

HouClone

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Utah is just a state to go skiing in. Get past that level and it’s just a crazy cult. If I could erase Mormonism or Scientology I would have a hard time deciding.
Drove through there one time. Pretty state but only stopped at a Denny's. Anyplace to get a beer in Provo or Salt Lake City?
 

GoldCy

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Drove through there one time. Pretty state but only stopped at a Denny's. Anyplace to get a beer in Provo or Salt Lake City?
Last I heard there were as many Catholics in SLC as Mormons. They don't mind selling it and make great bartenders since they don't drink and usually honest employees. Mike Leach was Mormon.
Lot better than Waco.
 

alarson

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make great bartenders since they don't drink .

Would make it harder for them to recommend drink options though. Wouldnt matter much if you're just slinging domestics but would definitely matter at a more craft-oriented place.
 

cyIclSoneU

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Would love to add the Four Corners and then set up a 16-game Big Ten/Big 12 Challenge in hoops. The ACC and SEC are doing one (with 15 games) now that they are all on ESPN. Ours could be on both ESPN and FOX.

The Cy-Hawk Game would be outside of this, but I would love to get a Saturday game in Minneapolis, Madison, Lincoln, Champagne, etc. in a challenge like this.
 
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HouClone

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Would love to add the Four Corners and then set up a 16-game Big Ten/Big 12 Challenge in hoops. The ACC and SEC are doing one (with 15 games) now that they are all on ESPN. Ours could be on both ESPN and FOX.

The Cy-Hawk Game would be outside of this, but I would love to get a Saturday game in Minneapolis, Madison, Lincoln, Champagne, etc. in a challenge like this.
Me too. Figured it would have been arranged by now. Guess the status of the Pac tv deal and any Big 12 expansion is holding things up. Even if no expansion, it still should be a go. Who's Pac Challenge with? Oops. The Big 12 - PAC Challenge before was just awful - no excitement.
 

exCyDing

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I'm a little surprised the B1G isn't showing interest in Colorado. Their football program has been in the dumps but they have a pretty rich history and there's lots of renewed energy with DS there. Denver's the #16 TV market. CU Boulder is an AAU school. It's contiguous with Nebby and would close the geographic gap (albeit slightly) between Cali. Could be me but seems like they'd be a natural fit after the add of USCLA.
They check a lot of boxes, I just think their value is significantly less than other options out there. I don’t see them in the top-10 for the B10. I’d say ND (duh), FSU, NC, Stanford, UVA, Washington, Miami, Oregon, GA Tech and Duke probably outrank them. I’d evaluate CO and KU about equal as a B10 target, both ahead of Cal.
 
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Gunnerclone

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Would love to add the Four Corners and then set up a 16-game Big Ten/Big 12 Challenge in hoops. The ACC and SEC are doing one (with 15 games) now that they are all on ESPN. Ours could be on both ESPN and FOX.

The Cy-Hawk Game would be outside of this, but I would love to get a Saturday game in Minneapolis, Madison, Lincoln, Champagne, etc. in a challenge like this.

Do a mini tournament. Preliminary rounds at home sites. QF through Finals in Chicago, Minneapolis, or KC.