Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[exCyDing]

Only because they will still leave as soon as they can.

FSU has leverage.

Look at this from the leftovers point of view. Time is not on their side. They have 13 years to get something out of GOR. 13 years to prevent being Oregon St’s, who would gladly go back and get paid $100 million to go to new Big 12 if USC and others were allowed to go to P2. They can’t get a P2 invite, but they can get paid to go away, maybe help on avoiding an American level conference

A reminder of how shallow the ACC is after ND, FSU, and Clemson leave, whenever that may be. The last two conference title games had horrible viewership. Leftovers CANNOT allow this to get to 2036. They can’t even risk 2030 and there no longer being a market that justifies settlement. They will be begging to trade schools to P2 in exchange for exit fees, a Big 12 invite, and maybe some GOR payments

2022 avg viewership:

Notre Dame — 3.30M (2.5 games/year on ACC contract)
Clemson — 2.59M
TCU — 2.20M
Florida State — 2.03M
Oklahoma State — 1.68M
Baylor — 1.32M
Kansas State — 1.23M
BYU — 997K
Iowa State — 882K
NC State — 881K
North Carolina — 849K
Syracuse — 841K
Georgia Tech — 837K
West Virginia — 774K
Kansas — 732K
Texas Tech — 680K
Cincinnati — 653K
Pittsburgh — 650K
Miami FL— 608K
Wake Forest — 523K
UCF — 510K
Louisville — 496K
Boston College — 322K
Virginia Tech — 264K
Houston — 242K
Virginia — 237K
Duke — 115.7K

Who pays the leftovers to go away? The schools that want to get away can’t. The ACC owns them lock, stiok and barrel. The conferences (B10/SEC) won’t because there’s no ROI. The networks won’t because there’s not ROI.

Who writes that check? Nobody. Because there’s no ROI.

 

[HFCS]

Big 10 had no negative impact on their recruiting. It took years of Frost’s terrible coaching before their recruiting finally started dropping off.

They took a step back after Osborne for a lot of reasons - no more partial qualifiers, scholarship reductions and everybody else getting on TV. But that dip happened a decade before they left.

The “how did the big 10 work out for Nebraska” comment as if it has been a bad thing is 100% wrong. Schedule got easier, recruiting maintained at levels they were in the Big 12, and were often even better despite years of mediocrity under Riley and dumpster fire under Frost.

Moving to the Big 10 was great for Nebraska in every single way. All the positives simply weren’t able to overcome years of mediocre, then completely incompetent coaching.

I’m not saying they exclusively faded because they joined the Big Ten. They’d have likely faded either way.

Their fans thought they’d be great in the Big Ten. Obviously any team takes the financial security.

What I reject is this whole “they are a marquee brand” thing. They aren’t a marquee brand a quarter century out from success. They are Iowa if Iowa football underachieved for a decade and had the worst program in basketball.

 

[JP4CY]

What is their natural advantage? I can never come up with one other than they were good 6 years before any player was born.

I think they had big rosters back in the day because of that stuff and once football became more regulated, that all went away.

 

[Gonzo]

Only because they will still leave as soon as they can.

FSU has leverage.

Look at this from the leftovers point of view. Time is not on their side. They have 13 years to get something out of GOR. 13 years to prevent being Oregon St’s, who would gladly go back and get paid $100 million to go to new Big 12 if USC and others were allowed to go to P2. They can’t get a P2 invite, but they can get paid to go away, maybe help on avoiding an American level conference

A reminder of how shallow the ACC is after ND, FSU, and Clemson leave, whenever that may be. The last two conference title games had horrible viewership. Leftovers CANNOT allow this to get to 2036. They can’t even risk 2030 and there no longer being a market that justifies settlement. They will be begging to trade schools to P2 in exchange for exit fees, a Big 12 invite, and maybe some GOR payments

2022 avg viewership:

Notre Dame — 3.30M (2.5 games/year on ACC contract)
Clemson — 2.59M
TCU — 2.20M
Florida State — 2.03M
Oklahoma State — 1.68M
Baylor — 1.32M
Kansas State — 1.23M
BYU — 997K
Iowa State — 882K
NC State — 881K
North Carolina — 849K
Syracuse — 841K
Georgia Tech — 837K
West Virginia — 774K
Kansas — 732K
Texas Tech — 680K
Cincinnati — 653K
Pittsburgh — 650K
Miami FL— 608K
Wake Forest — 523K
UCF — 510K
Louisville — 496K
Boston College — 322K
Virginia Tech — 264K
Houston — 242K
Virginia — 237K
Duke — 115.7K

What leverage does FSU have? They're locked into the ACC GoR until 2036. From what I've heard and read, that GoR is iron clad. Schools may be able to sneak out a few years early once the buyout and penalty fees are feasible, but that would still be probably 10 years away. The ACC knows that FSU is going to bail for the SEC the first chance it gets, and as such has zero incentive to reward FSU now, and doesn't have to. So what leverage does FSU have?

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

What is their natural advantage? I can never come up with one other than they were good 6 years before any player was born.

Unlimited prop 48 for all sports. Iowa State allowed 2 per semester for all sports. Kstate was the only other school that had Unlimited prop 48. The best steroid usage in college while admin and coaches looked the other way.

When Texas came to the big 12 one of their requirements was no more prop48. That was accepted and the origin of why nebby people hate Texas.

 

[isucy86]

What leverage does FSU have? They're locked into the ACC GoR until 2036. From what I've heard and read, that GoR is iron clad. Schools may be able to sneak out a few years early once the buyout and penalty fees are feasible, but that would still be probably 10 years away. The ACC knows that FSU is going to bail for the SEC the first chance it gets, and as such has zero incentive to reward FSU now, and doesn't have to. So what leverage does FSU have?

When did leverage become necessary to file a lawsuit? This is all about money and ego. If you think FSU is going to sit by and let Big10 and SEC schools make $500M or more over the length of the GOR, you haven't been paying attention. Greed is a lot of motivation. And finding a lawyer to push the envelop is not unheard of.

They might not win, but can try.

 

[Gonzo]

When did leverage become necessary to file a lawsuit? This is all about money and ego. If you think FSU is going to sit by and let Big10 and SEC schools make $500M or more over the length of the GOR, you haven't been paying attention. Greed is a lot of motivation. And finding a lawyer to push the envelop is not unheard of.

They might not win, but can try.

Well anyone can file a lawsuit. Any time I've mentioned the B1G's hopes for UNC, VA, or any possible expansion by adding ACC schools, it's been met with the obvious, that the GoR is iron clad and the ACC isn't losing anyone for at least a decade. So why does that all of a sudden not apply here? As for FSU not sitting by and letting B1G and SEC schools make $500M more over the length of the GoR, again, aside from filing a lawsuit what can they do? I know you fancy yourself as some authority on all of this, but yes I actually have been paying attention. Lol.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Running off the few good coaches they had because 10 and 11 wins weren’t enough is a big part of their coaching problem.

That and paying 2 or 3 head coaches at a time for parts of the last 2 decades because of buyouts.

Firing Frank Solich to bring in Bill Callahan was the first domino towards being what they've become. Then they doubled down on it over and over.

 

[WhoISthis]

What leverage does FSU have? They're locked into the ACC GoR until 2036. From what I've heard and read, that GoR is iron clad. Schools may be able to sneak out a few years early once the buyout and penalty fees are feasible, but that would still be probably 10 years away. The ACC knows that FSU is going to bail for the SEC the first chance it gets, and as such has zero incentive to reward FSU now, and doesn't have to. So what leverage does FSU have?

Leverage to get to P2, or leverage to get to P2 for free?

A lot in the former, and if they choose to wait, a lot in the latter case (assuming they have P2 invite)

On the other hand, the ACC leftovers can only improve their long term situation by getting something out of the GOR. And what they can get goes down every year. If they wait, they easily could be Oregon St. Who is more ****** in 2036 if 6 schools from ACC leave for P2 without paying a dime? The schools going to P2 or those that upheld GOR?



It is easy to get caught up in the emotion/pride of whether the leftovers can force schools to stay. The question is whether they would want to force that, rather than get a settlement.
In my opinion, it won’t take many years of schools giving up P2 money and leftover schools giving up a % of that, to get a settlement

 

[isucy86]

Well anyone can file a lawsuit. Any time I've mentioned the B1G's hopes for UNC, VA, or any possible expansion by adding ACC schools, it's been met with the obvious, that the GoR is iron clad and the ACC isn't losing anyone for at least a decade. So why does that all of a sudden not apply here? As for FSU not sitting by and letting B1G and SEC schools make $500M more over the length of the GoR, again, aside from filing a lawsuit what can they do? I know you fancy yourself as some authority on all of this, but yes I actually have been paying attention. Lol

That's right anyone can file a lawsuit, especially if the money is attractive enough.

Who knows, the GOR might be ironclad- but there are a lot of legal precedents that have been pushed aside by the courts in recent years. Just need to find the right jury and right judges.

Could also just be a negotiating ploy to enable Clemson, FSU, or any ACC team to receive a bigger share of the CFP money if their football teams make the 12 team playoff.

Glad you think I am an authority, guess I should play poker.

 

[Gonzo]

That's right anyone can file a lawsuit, especially if the money is attractive enough.

Who knows, the GOR might be ironclad- but there are a lot of legal precedents that have been pushed aside by the courts in recent years. Just need to find the right jury and right judges.

Could also just be a negotiating ploy to enable Clemson, FSU, or any ACC team to receive a bigger share of the CFP money if their football teams make the 12 team playoff.

Glad you think I am an authority, guess I should play poker.

Lol, no, you need to re-read my post.

 

[isu81]

Maybe I’m not old enough, or educated enough, but I really don’t understand the Big 10 adding Nebby. For a conference that prides itself in academics, Nebby is at/near the bottom of that conference in most metrics. They were hanging onto AAU status by a thread (and would lose it soon after joining), they don’t have a massive enrollment (by B1G standards), and they don’t deliver a large tv market. Hell, I can justify Rutgers and Maryland a lot quicker by those metrics than I can Nebraska.

I just can’t help but wonder if the conference regrets that addition.

The original choice was Missouri but the governor of Missouri ran his mouth, so the B10 told them to get lost. They needed another school to pair with Rutgers and Nebraska’s football brand won out.

 

[NWICY]

Big 10 has massive enrollment and fan bases. Every school is over 40k enrollment except 3, Iowa, NW, Nebby.

Didn't realize Minny was over 40.

 

[NWICY]

Maybe I’m not old enough, or educated enough, but I really don’t understand the Big 10 adding Nebby. For a conference that prides itself in academics, Nebby is at/near the bottom of that conference in most metrics. They were hanging onto AAU status by a thread (and would lose it soon after joining), they don’t have a massive enrollment (by B1G standards), and they don’t deliver a large tv market. Hell, I can justify Rutgers and Maryland a lot quicker by those metrics than I can Nebraska.

I just can’t help but wonder if the conference regrets that addition.

At the time they were a FB name school. Their prime days were behind them but still had good name recognition. Now they are just another mediocre team among many.

 

[BCClone]

Firing Frank Solich to bring in Bill Callahan was the first domino towards being what they've become. Then they doubled down on it over and over.

Callahan was kind of a scapegoat on that mess to a point. Donors didn’t like Solich and the writing was on the wall that the triple option was not winning another championship. With all the other changes, best to bring in an outsider to make changes and point the finger at him when it “failed” even though it wasn’t just that. They just happened to bring in a terrible choice as scapegoat also as he wasn’t that good of a coach to start with.

 

[exCyDing]

That's right anyone can file a lawsuit, especially if the money is attractive enough.

Who knows, the GOR might be ironclad- but there are a lot of legal precedents that have been pushed aside by the courts in recent years. Just need to find the right jury and right judges.

Could also just be a negotiating ploy to enable Clemson, FSU, or any ACC team to receive a bigger share of the CFP money if their football teams make the 12 team playoff.

Glad you think I am an authority, guess I should play poker.

They could file suit, but what’s the legal argument? “We don’t like this deal anymore and could make more money in another conference” gets their suit tossed immediately. If they could argue the GOR is invalid, maybe they’d have a shot. Then again, the whole point of the GOR was to bind the schools to the conference, and the schools willingly signed.

Why would the ACC give them a bigger cut? They might complain less, but they’re still going to the B10 or SEC as soon as they possibly can.

 

[HouClone]

Another motivation for Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina making noise is to try to get more money from ESPN for the ACC. ESPN has all the ACC and SEC; they have zero Big 10. Those 3 along with Virginia, GT, Miami could be play for the Big 10. "Pay us more now as we are way below market rate - or we'll remember this." Their threat is not great now but closer it gets to the GOR date, it gets more.

 

[BCClone]

Unless the GOR has a way to be broken by upset schools, I don’t think the ACC or ESPN will do anything for 6-8 years. Let it get about 4-5 years from the end of it and then teams will start to get more interested due to economics being better for them.

 

[SCNCY]

Another motivation for Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina making noise is to try to get more money from ESPN for the ACC. ESPN has all the ACC and SEC; they have zero Big 10. Those 3 along with Virginia, GT, Miami could be play for the Big 10. "Pay us more now as we are way below market rate - or we'll remember this." Their threat is not great now but closer it gets to the GOR date, it gets more.

This is a possibility, that ESPN will offer the ACC a market rate deal once the current one concludes. Clemson, FSU and Miami are only going to the SEC if ESPN will allow it. Additionally, doing this will keep UNC, Duke, and others in the ESPN family as well.

 

[aeroclone]

Only because they will still leave as soon as they can.

FSU has leverage.

Look at this from the leftovers point of view. Time is not on their side. They have 13 years to get something out of GOR. 13 years to prevent being Oregon St’s, who would gladly go back and get paid $100 million to go to new Big 12 if USC and others were allowed to go to P2. They can’t get a P2 invite, but they can get paid to go away, maybe help on avoiding an American level conference

A reminder of how shallow the ACC is after ND, FSU, and Clemson leave, whenever that may be. The last two conference title games had horrible viewership. Leftovers CANNOT allow this to get to 2036. They can’t even risk 2030 and there no longer being a market that justifies settlement. They will be begging to trade schools to P2 in exchange for exit fees, a Big 12 invite, and maybe some GOR payments

2022 avg viewership:

Notre Dame — 3.30M (2.5 games/year on ACC contract)
Clemson — 2.59M
TCU — 2.20M
Florida State — 2.03M
Oklahoma State — 1.68M
Baylor — 1.32M
Kansas State — 1.23M
BYU — 997K
Iowa State — 882K
NC State — 881K
North Carolina — 849K
Syracuse — 841K
Georgia Tech — 837K
West Virginia — 774K
Kansas — 732K
Texas Tech — 680K
Cincinnati — 653K
Pittsburgh — 650K
Miami FL— 608K
Wake Forest — 523K
UCF — 510K
Louisville — 496K
Boston College — 322K
Virginia Tech — 264K
Houston — 242K
Virginia — 237K
Duke — 115.7K

Looking at these numbers makes me think the ACC will actually survive. Notre Dame isn't going anywhere unless they have to. And the B1G and SEC are making so much money now that it becomes hard for a new school to increase or even maintain the payouts. It looks like Clemson and FSU may be worth taking, maybe, but maybe nobody after that. I'm not even sure many of the remainders are a sure take for the B12.

Reminds me of what we are seeing with the PAC. Lose the top two programs. The B12 makes more than the remainder of the conference, but the remainders aren't going to raise the payout much in the B12, and the pay gap isn't enough to get anyone to budge.

Makes me think the Pac and ACC could both survive, with the B12 being the strongest of the second tier P5 conferences.