Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry

ZorkClone

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I hate this garbage. It’s all about budgets now. Baker kind of set the baseline budget $100 million mark. That would theoretically leave some BIG 12 teams out. Not sure how accurate this tweet is but it shows us at $86 million. We have some ground to make up.

According to the Regent report here on page 4 ISU's budget is $106 Million.

Edit: Correction that is revenue the budget can be found on page 35.
 
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Nolaeer

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Again, i think teams like WVU, ISU, oklahoma State, tcu, texas tech, Utah, etc make the cut.

This is designed to get rid of the MAC, CUSA, and conferences that keep taking newly minted div 1 programs who have no business being div 1. Well, they can be div 1, but there's no reason lower-level teams with no tv ratings should get a free ride by getting distribution from cfp.

In the end, this will increase ISU's total payout and reduce teams like Tulsa. Less mouths to feed.
 

Al_4_State

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I hate this garbage. It’s all about budgets now. Baker kind of set the baseline budget $100 million mark. That would theoretically leave some BIG 12 teams out. Not sure how accurate this tweet is but it shows us at $86 million. We have some ground to make up.

It's not accurate. This account is very anti-Big 12 and has acted like an insider throughout the last few rounds of realignment, despite being less accurate than say MHVer3.

This is someone with an agenda wishcasting.
 

PickSix

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Again, i think teams like WVU, ISU, oklahoma State, tcu, texas tech, Utah, etc make the cut.

This is designed to get rid of the MAC, CUSA, and conferences that keep taking newly minted div 1 programs who have no business being div 1. Well, they can be div 1, but there's no reason lower-level teams with no tv ratings should get a free ride by getting distribution from cfp.

In the end, this will increase ISU's total payout and reduce teams like Tulsa. Less mouths to feed.

I could also see a world where Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest, etc. opt out because pay to play doesn’t align with their values and they don’t want to mess with it.

Exactly where the line is drawn is intriguing and I’ll be watching intently.
 

Clonehomer

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I could also see a world where Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest, etc. opt out because pay to play doesn’t align with their values and they don’t want to mess with it.

Exactly where the line is drawn is intriguing and I’ll be watching intently.

What will be interesting is if this line is drawn through a conference. What happens then? More realignment?
 
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FriendlySpartan

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Again, i think teams like WVU, ISU, oklahoma State, tcu, texas tech, Utah, etc make the cut.

This is designed to get rid of the MAC, CUSA, and conferences that keep taking newly minted div 1 programs who have no business being div 1. Well, they can be div 1, but there's no reason lower-level teams with no tv ratings should get a free ride by getting distribution from cfp.

In the end, this will increase ISU's total payout and reduce teams like Tulsa. Less mouths to feed.
Only one on that list that could have a rough time is WVU but that’s mostly due to the university being in shambles at the moment, financially speaking
 

CascadeClone

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In the end, this will increase ISU's total payout and reduce teams like Tulsa. Less mouths to feed.
Until & unless they decide they would like even LESS mouths to feed...

It's a bell curve on value. There are 20ish TOP brands that have 80% of the value. There are 10ish bottom feeders with about zero value (Rutgers, Vandy, Wake, etc). And about 40 schools in the middle worth about 20%.

I would estimate those top brands are worth $100-150M each annual media deal. The middles are worth more like $20M per team.

The calculations will be about inventory needed, and the value of having 1 diverse large sport vs a two-tiered system. I don't think they really need the inventory - there are only so many high-value timeslots. The other part... who knows what they think. It may not come to pass, but its absolutely possible.
 

HFCS

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I could also see a world where Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest, etc. opt out because pay to play doesn’t align with their values and they don’t want to mess with it.

Exactly where the line is drawn is intriguing and I’ll be watching intently.

I’ve always thought Cal could opt out in very distant future for a reason like cte. The school doesn’t need football lik some others do.
 

FriendlySpartan

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I’ve always thought Cal could opt out in very distant future for a reason like cte. The school doesn’t need football lik some others do.
Not that distant, the moment you can detect signs of CTE in a live person with a non invasive test the sport is done at a non professional level
 

Nolaeer

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Until & unless they decide they would like even LESS mouths to feed...

It's a bell curve on value. There are 20ish TOP brands that have 80% of the value. There are 10ish bottom feeders with about zero value (Rutgers, Vandy, Wake, etc). And about 40 schools in the middle worth about 20%.

I would estimate those top brands are worth $100-150M each annual media deal. The middles are worth more like $20M per team.

The calculations will be about inventory needed, and the value of having 1 diverse large sport vs a two-tiered system. I don't think they really need the inventory - there are only so many high-value timeslots. The other part... who knows what they think. It may not come to pass, but its absolutely possible.
Problem is if ESPN cuts out big 12 and ACC, who will watch their super league? A lot of people, but a lot more will have zero interest if those games dont matrter to their rooting interest.

Sure WVU v Pitt or WVU v VT may only be 3 million, whereas ohio State v michigan is 9, but take away all the wvu, pitt, vt fns etc and i bet that OSU v Mich number drops to 6 million or lower.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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Problem is if ESPN cuts out big 12 and ACC, who will watch their super league? A lot of people, but a lot more will have zero interest if those games dont matrter to their rooting interest.

Sure WVU v Pitt or WVU v VT may only be 3 million, whereas ohio State v michigan is 9, but take away all the wvu, pitt, vt fns etc and i bet that OSU v Mich number drops to 6 million or lower.
OSU vs Michigan was 19mil this year but I still agree with the overall point you are making. Also now that you can get into the playoffs with multiple losses how does that affect the regular season ratings? Most of the Michigan alumni I know were pretty bored this season and that’s just going to get worse when the losses don’t mean as much.
 
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ISU_Guy

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nothing screams committment to football than:
rutgers
northwestern
Arizona State
Vandy
Illinois
Minneasota
Indiana
California
Arizona
Pitt
Duke
standford
 

ClubCy

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It's not accurate. This account is very anti-Big 12 and has acted like an insider throughout the last few rounds of realignment, despite being less accurate than say MHVer3.

This is someone with an agenda wishcasting.
Pretty sure it’s a Nebraska fan. Not sure how people even entertain these accounts.

Also let’s stop posting tweets unless the account has an actual human as their avi and let’s say i don’t know a credible media company as their employer.
 

rochclone

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Those numbers aren’t correct, we have more than 200 student athletes total.
You add an additional $50 to season tickets. That is $7 more per game. The rest of it comes out of TV revenue. The bottom line that a $30,000 trust investment for each student athlete is relatively cheap compared to simply not existing in the top tier of college sports.
 

SolterraCyclone

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Not that distant, the moment you can detect signs of CTE in a live person with a non invasive test the sport is done at a non professional level
Not to derail the thread but a lot of sports would be in trouble. Hockey, MMA, even soccer. 22% of all injuries in soccer are concussions. A recent study estimated 136,000 concussions annually in youth soccer
 

TXCyclones

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nothing screams committment to football than:
rutgers
northwestern
Arizona State
Vandy
Illinois
Minneasota
Indiana
California
Arizona
Pitt
Duke
standford

Not sure what your point is here. How do you know that there is no "committment" from those schools? Is it their record? If so, then why didn't you list Purdue, Wake Forest, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa State, etc?
 

FriendlySpartan

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Not to derail the thread but a lot of sports would be in trouble. Hockey, MMA, even soccer. 22% of all injuries in soccer are concussions. A recent study estimated 136,000 concussions annually in youth soccer
Well MMA you know what you sign up for, soccer would have me totally derailing this thread so I won’t go into it but yeah some sports would get hit just not as bad as football.
 

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