Bracketology 2024

Cyclonepride

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Big 10 as of 2/12/2024

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois

Probably in: Michigan St, Northwestern

Coin flip: Nebraska

Probably Out: Iowa

No Shot: Ohio St, Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn St, Rutgers, Michigan

Nebraska stopped their 2 game skid with a convincing win over Michigan. They simply can't win on the road. Penn State is a must win game at home next weekend and then they have a winnable road game @ Indiana.

Michigan State picked up a much needed win over Illinois. Sparty is a metric darling (#17 on KP) and should be safe as long as they don't collapse down the stretch.

Wisconsin has lost 4 in a row. The last two to noon-tourney teams. They have fallen from 2 seed consideration to closer to a 5 seed. Saturday was ugly getting blown out at Rutgers. Thank you for your help, Jeremiah Williams.

Iowa is hanging on by a thread. They are stuck with zero Quad 1 wins but have many remaining opportunities with an actually challenging schedule to finish (7th remaining SOS nationally). They have a winnable road game @ Maryland on Wednesday before the schedule gets tough (Wisconsin, @ Mich St, @ Illinois, Penn St, @ Northwestern, Illinois).
FWIW, ESPN's bubble watch doesn't have Iowa listed at all.
 

AuH2O

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Totally agree with this. My point was I'm not putting anything past the committee. Even though these guys aren't on it, there are several that MAKE THEIR LIVING doing cbb and bracket projections. The fact so many had Wisconsin as a 2 seed is simply laughable to me.

But yeah, being on the national radar (having relevance and respect) will hopefully help us on some of those 50/50 decisons.
It's tough to take too much from a lot of the bracket guys during the season. They have a lot of dumb stuff but magically they seem to get it mostly right by the end so they can claim some success rate, which usually is unimpressive when you come down to it.

I still remember Palm having ISU out of the tourney going into the Big 12 tournament the year we had Royce White. Then ISU loses to a mediocre Texas team in the opening game of the Big 12 tournament, and magically he moves ISU up to the 8/9 game and gets it right. It made no sense, and it makes me wonder what the hell these guys are doing. ISU has a fairly bad loss and somehow in Palms bracket ISU then leapfrogs like 20 teams. I'm not sure if these guys are push pollers or just don't pay that close attention until the very end.
 
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Cyclonepride

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They need to beat Illinois and Wisconsin at home and win at least 1 of their Quad 1 road games to even be considered right now. They have zero Quad 1 wins.
Wisconsin I could see, just because Wisconsin has been looking terrible (though the value of that win is plummeting too), but I think they'd have to catch Illinois completely sleeping to get either of those.
 
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ZRF

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They need to beat Illinois and Wisconsin at home and win at least 1 of their Quad 1 road games to even be considered right now. They have zero Quad 1 wins.

In fairness Iowa has been pretty unlucky with their scheduling. To have 6 Quad 1 games to date with only 1 being at home is unlucky. That one home game? Arguably the best team (and the only surefire legit Big 10 team) in the country, Purdue.

I don't think Iowa is very good but I'm also bearish on Illinois and Wisconsin, two posers who look more beatable by the day. Iowa has 2 home games against them, which are winnable, and they need them to maintain their Q1 status through the rest of the year. Then they need to beat a bad Maryland team on the road (one of the toughest road trips in the Big 10) and thrash Penn State at home. I'm assuming games at Illinois, MSU, and NW will be losses. If they do what I said above and beat NW? They are probably in with a respectable Big 10 tourney showing.

For some reason the metrics like the Big 10 way more than they should. Because of that and the committee's history on rewarding the conference, they are probably in if they win at home, beat Maryland on the road, and lose the other road games. Win at NW? Almost a lock (sadly).
 

groomsie

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That's my personal feeling as well but have seen the committee do stupid **** fairly repeatedly.

Just look at the 99-2000 team. Great record, won the conference and conference tourneys, and had a huge winning streak going in. It's pretty obvious the committee held those early season losses against us despite all of the current evidence that proved we were a number 1 seed.
There were only 2 early losses, and one was to the #1 team at the time (Cincinnati)...the Drake loss was a head-scratcher for sure in hindsight.

My understanding of this was that the powers that be at Iowa State lobbied for the #2 seed instead of the #1 because the #2 seed would play in Minneapolis and we'd have much better fan support.

@ChrisMWilliams does this ring a bell?
 
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ZRF

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There were only 2 early losses, and one was to the #1 team at the time (Cincinnati)...the Drake loss was a head-scratcher for sure in hindsight.

My understanding of this was that the powers that be at Iowa State lobbied for the #2 seed instead of the #1 because the #2 seed would play in Minneapolis and we'd have much better fan support.

That's some hillbilly logic right there (not saying it isn't true). So we'd rather have more fans watch the team lose than win games in the ******* tourney?

Hopefully the argument was more about the location than the seed. On the same token I hope the committee wasn't like "we'll say no to Minneapolis but we'll put them in Michigan as a consolation". Regardless of the reasons I have always maintained that was one of the biggest screw jobs in seeding history. We literally got hosed out of a Final Four/championship game because of it.
 

cykadelic2

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It's tough to take too much from a lot of the bracket guys during the season. They have a lot of dumb stuff but magically they seem to get it mostly right by the end so they can claim some success rate, which usually is unimpressive when you come down to it.

I still remember Palm having ISU out of the tourney going into the Big 12 tournament the year we had Royce White. Then ISU loses to a mediocre Texas team in the opening game of the Big 12 tournament, and magically he moves ISU up to the 8/9 game and gets it right. It made no sense, and it makes me wonder what the hell these guys are doing. ISU has a fairly bad loss and somehow in Palms bracket ISU then leapfrogs like 20 teams. I'm not sure if these guys are push pollers or just don't pay that close attention until the very end.
Palm's in season bracketology is geared to irritate select fan bases and gain clicks. He is a Purdue grad and it's become an annual ritual for him to "intentionally" leave out other B10 teams or other teams with strong followings. This season he is toying with Michigan St fans. His current bracket posted has them as the first team out whereas Bracket Matrix has them as a 9 seed. By Selection Sunday, he normalizes like other rational guys do.
 

CyPunch

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FWIW, ESPN's bubble watch doesn't have Iowa listed at all.

Correct. They are a ways off the bubble but in a unique position because their analytics are very good relative to their record and they have 5 Quad 1 games remaining. They need to go crazy down the stretch though. Like 5-2 or 6-1 and 2 or 3 BTT wins.
 

NoCreativity

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Then they need to beat a bad Maryland team on the road (one of the toughest road trips in the Big 10) and thrash Penn State at home. I'm assuming games at Illinois, MSU, and NW will be losses. If they do what I said above and beat NW? They are probably in with a respectable Big 10 tourney showing.
I dont even think that gets them in. Even winning all those games and at NW screams classic NIT resume. Had they beaten Michigan and not blown the Maryland or Penn State games they might have a shot.
 
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MJ271

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Wisconsin still on the 3 seed line is inexcusable. They are probably a 5 right now.
It looks like he had Wisconsin at #9 on Wednesday afternoon before they lost to Michigan. So he dropped them a total of 2 spots for two losses to bad-to-middling non-NCAA tournament teams.
 

bosco

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I would be ecstatic for a 2. But is there anyway we can crack that top 4? One of those 4 would have to stumble.

I can't see Purdue falling being in that weak conference. Even if we Beat Houston at Houston (which we would have to, to even be considered for a top seed) I think they would remain a 1. Arizona has some bad losses.
 

ZRF

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I dont even think that gets them in. Even winning all those games and at NW screams classic NIT resume. Had they beaten Michigan and not blown the Maryland or Penn State games they might have a shot.

I don't disagree with you but since the NET/metrics overrate the Big 10 in general, I think they are guaranteed to get "X" number of teams. 12-8 or 13-7 in the Big 10 will put them in the top half, which will likely be good enough for a bid. It really shouldn't, but sadly it probably will be.
 
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goody2012

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I don't disagree with you but since the NET/metrics overrate the Big 10 in general, I think they are guaranteed to get "X" number of teams. 12-8 or 13-7 in the Big 10 will put them in the top half, which will likely be good enough for a bid. It really shouldn't, but sadly it probably will be.
I'm gonna need you to explain how statistical analysis can overrate a conference...
 
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