Bracketology 2024

[Cyowa 14]

I'm always impressed when hobbyists online can keep up with supposed "professionals" in their field.

I've seen way to much of this and have completely turned away from guys like JBR and T3 etc. Quit acting like you have a professional degree in bracketology, who cares if media guys give opinions on who is in or out, they act like it's damaging beyond repair for the sport or something

 

[alarson]

I'm always impressed when hobbyists online can keep up with supposed "professionals" in their field.

Honestly some of them would probably do better than the actual committee at applying the criteria consistently.

 

[Jayshellberg]

Lordy. I completely misread that tweet. I thought it was saying that all of the Champions since 1993 are currently in their conference tournament semifinals.

Makes more sense now.

Thanks.

You’re worrying me Nice with KU still getting a “3” seed. You’re one of the few that I have seen who still slots them there. That would put Kansas in Omaha with Iowa State and drive up ticket prices.

I will be cheering for Illinois and Kentucky to win today and tomorrow to get the nod over the Jayhawks for one of the “3” seeds.

 

[jcf817]

You’re worrying me Nice with KU still getting a “3” seed. You’re one of the few that I have seen who still slots them there. That would put Kansas in Omaha with Iowa State and drive up ticket prices.

I will be cheering for Illinois and Kentucky to win today and tomorrow to get the nod over the Jayhawks for one of the “3” seeds.

You have me confused with someone who does Bracketology.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

One will be the 2 in the West as the best 2-seed. The other will go to the South

If North Carolina falls off the 1 line I can't see a scenario where they won't be the 2 seed in the east.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

My updated bracket this morning after that loaded slate of Thursday games.

View attachment 125610

• If Iowa State beats Baylor, they're a 2-seed. If they lose, they're the 3-seed in the Midwest.
  • Most likely scenario if they beat Baylor is a 2-seed in the East. Depending on how UNC/Tennessee/Arizona/Marquette finish the season, they could also be the 2-seed in the Midwest or West. I'd say East/Midwest/West is order of operations there.
• I originally had Drake as the 11-seed in Omaha in the Kansas pod, but I had to move them to account for First Four matchups. If Iowa State is the 3-seed in the Midwest, don't be shocked if Drake is the 11 there.
• Here are my rough tiers right now per my seed list:
  • 1-3, 4-6, 7-10, 11-16, 17-28, 29-35, 36-42, 43-46 (plus first 3 out).
• In my opinion, there are 7 spots available amongst these 12 teams. Colorado, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, St. John's, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Indiana State, Seton Hall, Providence, Ohio State, Kansas State. That's the order I would have them ranked as well.
  • Of those 12 teams, I think Colorado, Oklahoma, and Mississippi State are 90%+ to make it, and I think Ohio State and Kansas State are at less than 10% (if Ohio State beats Illinois, that changes).
  • So you could simplify it a little further to 4 spots for 7 teams. Three of these teams will not make it -- St. John's, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Indiana State, Seton Hall, Providence. There's your bubble.
• Having said all that, it's a bit curious to me how all 105 brackets on Bracket Matrix have Seton Hall in the field right now, and 6 have Kansas State. Let me be clear, I don't think and I don't want Kansas State in the field -- they are my least favorite Big 12 team. But these resumes are quite similar to me, yet one is in 105 brackets, and one is in 6. View attachment 125604
  • I do think there's some groupthink going on right now with Seton Hall, and the entire reason everyone has them in is because they beat UConn. Just last year, Rutgers big resume win was at Purdue, and they had somewhat similar resume metrics (Seton Hall KPI/SOR 68/40; 2023 Rutgers KPI/SOR 49/57). They're my pick right now for the Selection Sunday "how did this team not make it?" surprise reaction.

This Iowa State team would break Izzo. He would be losing his mind the entire game.

 

[Hoggins]

Apropos of nothing, it's pretty amazing how every year ISU is either good enough to be solidly in the NCAA Tournament, or bad enough that we're certain we won't get in. Has there been a single instance in the last, say, 30 years where we were sweating it out on Selection Sunday? Even in our (relatively rare) NIT seasons I don't recall there ever being any doubt about our postseason fate.

2013 and 2021 I would say ISU was on the bubble. In 2021 they were the first team out of Dayton

 

[SolterraCyclone]

If North Carolina falls off the 1 line I can't see a scenario where they won't be the 2 seed in the east.

I don’t think so because that’s not fair to give UConn, who will likely be the number two seed overall, the best or second-best two seed.

I don’t think they’d disadvantage UConn like that just to accommodate geography. I know they did that to ISU/Michigan State back in 2000 but things are different from then.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I don’t think so because that’s not fair to give UConn, who will likely be the number two seed overall, the best or second-best two seed.

I don’t think they’d disadvantage UConn like that just to accommodate geography. I know they did that to ISU/Michigan State back in 2000 but things are different from then.

It's 100% geography driven. If NC would fall off the 1 line they would be the first 2 seed placed and they would be put in Boston because it's closest.

 

[cyclones500]

List of NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament venues - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I had no idea Hilton hosted a regional final

1972 NCAA University Division basketball tournament - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I was unaware of that myself.

 

[Cyclonepride]

You’re worrying me Nice with KU still getting a “3” seed. You’re one of the few that I have seen who still slots them there. That would put Kansas in Omaha with Iowa State and drive up ticket prices.

I will be cheering for Illinois and Kentucky to win today and tomorrow to get the nod over the Jayhawks for one of the “3” seeds.

I wouldn't worry, I am pretty confident that KU is a 4

 

[cyatheart]

Tennessee getting drilled

 

[TheDudeAbides]

May be an unpopular opinion, but at this point I'd rather lose to Baylor and ISU get jumped on the 2 line. If ISU remains the lowest 2 seed, they're likely headed to the East region with UConn. I think I'd rather be the best 3 seed, and get the Midwest region draw. Even if they beat Baylor I'm not sure it's enough to jump very far up the 2 line.

Omaha likely already a lock it seems as a 2 or 3, but after that being in the Midwest region would be huge. At the end of the day 2 vs 3 seed isn't much different (outside of maybe bragging rights?), so I would rather have as good of a chance at a location advantage as possible. I think being the highest 3 seed would give them that nod vs being the lowest 2 seed.

side note: If my thought process is totally wrong, and it's mainly based off geographical location for placement regardless of overall seeding, or this has already been discussed...take it easy on me

 

[Clonehomer]

Does Tennessee getting blasted have any influence?

 

[chuckd4735]

May be an unpopular opinion, but at this point I'd rather lose to Baylor and ISU get jumped on the 2 line. If ISU remains the lowest 2 seed, they're likely headed to the East region with UConn. I think I'd rather be the best 3 seed, and get the Midwest region draw. Even if they beat Baylor I'm not sure it's enough to jump very far up the 2 line.

Omaha likely already a lock it seems as a 2 or 3, but after that being in the Midwest region would be huge. At the end of the day 2 vs 3 seed isn't much different (outside of maybe bragging rights?), so I would rather have as good of a chance at a location advantage as possible. I think being the highest 3 seed would give them that nod vs being the lowest 2 seed.

side note: If my thought process is totally wrong, and it's mainly based off geographical location for placement regardless of overall seeding, or this has already been discussed...take it easy on me

But winning could move us ahead of Marquette and be the 2 in the Midwest.

 

[RollClones14]

May be an unpopular opinion, but at this point I'd rather lose to Baylor and ISU get jumped on the 2 line. If ISU remains the lowest 2 seed, they're likely headed to the East region with UConn. I think I'd rather be the best 3 seed, and get the Midwest region draw. Even if they beat Baylor I'm not sure it's enough to jump very far up the 2 line.

Omaha likely already a lock it seems as a 2 or 3, but after that being in the Midwest region would be huge. At the end of the day 2 vs 3 seed isn't much different (outside of maybe bragging rights?), so I would rather have as good of a chance at a location advantage as possible. I think being the highest 3 seed would give them that nod vs being the lowest 2 seed.

side note: If my thought process is totally wrong, and it's mainly based off geographical location for placement regardless of overall seeding, or this has already been discussed...take it easy on me

I would rather play a lot of projected 6 seeds than 7 seeds, but I want no part of there being a chance Drake could play us as an 11 seed if they win their first game.

 

[cycfan1]

But winning could move us ahead of Marquette and be the 2 in the Midwest.

Not sure why Midwest means much... would rather be in Dallas for travel purposes than Detroit.

 

[cycfan1]

I would rather play a lot of projected 6 seeds than 7 seeds, but I want no part of there being a chance Drake could play us as an 11 seed if they win their first game.

If you can't beat Drake in a 3/11 game you don't really deserve to go the S16.

 

[chuckd4735]

Not sure why Midwest means much... would rather be in Dallas for travel purposes than Detroit.

I agree, but I don't think we can since Houston will be the 1 there.

 

[Bader]

Not sure why Midwest means much... would rather be in Dallas for travel purposes than Detroit.

ISU won't be in the South because of Houston.