The Kp is one thing but watch the solar wind too. The Bz. It really needs to be negative for us to have a good chance at seeing. That is the solar wind which helps displace it from higher latitudes.
https://seetheaurora.com/live-data (Red line)
Kp is okay for tonight, but the Bz has been strongly positive most of the day. Wouldn't hang my hat on it tonight. We'll have increasing clouds too.
Solar activity is at something like a decade long maximum. The frequency of chances for Northern Lights is off the chart right now. We've had several in the last few months. Even twice they've materialized this week! Enjoy it. It's not too common.
They never get old. I'm always mesmerized every time I see them. Last night's was a great show. I saw them naked eye in Norwalk with so much light pollution from Des Moines. I'm sure it would have been amazing 25 miles east/west.
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