2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

[ghyland7]

I'd be surprised if the current B12 configuration ever has a top 10 team on talent (as determined by recruiting rankings). I went back through 2010 on 247 and didn't find a single year where any of us were in the top 15. NIL and the TV money gap probably isn't going to make that better.

I think the silver lining is that NIL also seems to be killing off the superteam era where Bama/Clemson/tOSU/SEC#2 were miles ahead of everyone else because they could stockpile talent. Michigan won it last year and was borderline by that criteria. Washington and TCU made the last two title games and were well outside of it. The #1 team right now is Texas, and while they're good I don't think of them as untouchable. We played them fairly close last year.

I'm hoping that even if we can't get top end talent in the B12, that talent will be more spread out at the top and give us more games like Michigan-TCU where we have a puncher's chance.

I do think the playoff (especially if they get to 16) definitely makes it more likely that a lower-talent team could win a game or two.

That Michigan TCU game was absolutely wild, though, and required so many things to go TCU’s way.. two pick sixes.

I feel like we are more likely to see some upsets (if nothing else because there are more opportunities), but I feel like it’s incredibly unlikely for a team of a “lesser” talent level to win it all. Now you don’t have to get “lucky” once or twice, you have to do it 3 or 4 times.

Obviously this is all relative, and I think it’s clear that ISU has a lot of talent, even if it’s not necessarily reflected in recruiting rankings.

I think we WILL see a lot more parity between some of the big name programs.

 

[AirWalke]

I like this new Big12. We knew someone was going to benefit from the power vacuum, maybe it’ll be us for once?

This is implying that ISU got better because OU and Texas left. I feel like this kind of mentality doesn't do the team justice... they would have been rolling even with OU and Texas still in the mix. Texas is the only team that is better than ISU in the current Big 12.

 

[qwerty]

BYU has Great Balls of Fire!

 

[KidSilverhair]

Those are some impressive abs for a cat, I’ve gotta say.

 

[interrobang]

Just bumping this for @Dale

Assuming KSU gained a bit on us and BYU this week.

 

[Cydwinder]

Just bumping this for @Dale

Assuming KSU gained a bit on us and BYU this week.

I got really excited to see this bump. The probability nerd in me loves this thread

 

[OscarBerkshire]

I’m sure we’re still the favorite. But man that was a scare last night

 

[BigJCy]

Ran the scenario that I don't think is too crazy on mred's site and it's if K-State, BYU, ISU & Colorado all ended up with 1 loss the Title Game would be:

K-State vs. Colorado

mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator

Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers

bball.notnothing.net

 

[Dale]

Update after the (stressful) games yesterday:

Iowa St.: 76.7% (55.2% 1st, 21.5% 2nd)
BYU: 65.6% (26.0% 1st, 39.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 40.5% (14.7% 1st, 25.8% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 6.5% (2.0% 1st, 4.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.4% (1.4% 1st, 4.0% 2nd)
Colorado: 2.6% (0.4% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
TCU: 1.2% (0.1% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
Arizona St: 0.6% (0.1% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
UCF: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Baylor: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Arizona, Houston, OSU, Utah: zippo

Most likely championship matchups:
BYU/Iowa St.: 46.2%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 21.9%
BYU/Kansas St.: 15.1%
Cincinnati/Iowa St.: 3.0%
Iowa St./Texas Tech: 2.7%
BYU/Cincinnati: 2.0%
BYU/Texas Tech: 1.4%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 1.3%
Cincinnati/Kansas St.: 1.2%
Kansas St./Texas Tech: 1.0%

ISU record chances:
7-5: 0.3%
8-4: 3.7%
9-3: 16.5%
10-2: 34.5%
11-1: 33.0%
12-0: 12.1%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.0%
8-4: 0.0%
9-3: 15.8%
10-2: 84.1%
11-1: 99.7%
12-0: 100.0%

 

[Hoggins]

Farmaggedon is likely going to be one of the most hyped biggest games in ISU history

 

[harimad]

Farmaggedon is likely going to be one of the most hyped biggest games in ISU history

Kansas has a very good coach and they're starting to play back to their preseason expectations. Utah may very well do the same once this backup QB gets some game reps. It isn't an easy road to the biggest game in ISU history.

Nov. 9th @Kansas
Nov. 23rd @utah

 

[BigJCy]

Farmaggedon is likely going to be one of the most hyped biggest games in ISU history

Agree, hopefully Thanksgiving doesn't hurt the crowd attendance too much. Not sure how many students will come back for the game either.

 

[every_yard]

Farmaggedon is likely going to be one of the most hyped biggest games in ISU history

Hoping they can figure out a way to get the stadium filled even with the students being gone. Don’t know that there will be a way to do it unless the students that are gone that weekend sell their tickets to others.

 

[helechopper]

Are you guys nuts? The stadium will be filled.

 

[cycloneman003]

Kansas has a very good coach and they're starting to play back to their preseason expectations. Utah may very well do the same once this backup QB gets some game reps. It isn't an easy road to the biggest game in ISU history.

Nov. 9th @Kansas
Nov. 23rd @utah

Wut? They lost 5 straight and then beat a bad Houston team. Declaring them “back” because of one game is hilarious.

 

[cyclonedave25]

Agree, hopefully Thanksgiving doesn't hurt the crowd attendance too much. Not sure how many students will come back for the game either.

If that game comes down to ISU heading to Arlington or not, I can guarantee it will be sold out, the student section will be packed, and the atmosphere will be nuts. Regardless of weather.

 

[every_yard]

Are you guys nuts? The stadium will be filled.

I’m just concerned that there won’t be enough students around. We can’t just sell those tickets to the general public because they’ve already been sold to the students. It will be a sell out, but I’m not convinced it will be full. I’m probably just getting into semantics about 61,500 there vs 60,000.

 

[Hoggins]

If that game comes down to ISU heading to Arlington or not, I can guarantee it will be sold out, the student section will be packed, and the atmosphere will be nuts. Regardless of weather.

ISU is going to have lose twice for that game to not matter for Arlington. Its going to be nuts

 

[alarson]

ISU is going to have lose twice for that game to not matter for Arlington. Its going to be nuts

Will be quite the contrast from 20 years ago, that's for sure

 

[harimad]

ISU is going to have lose twice for that game to not matter for Arlington. Its going to be nuts

Where do we sit in the three-way tie-breaker if KSU wins out, BYU loses one, and our only loss is to KSU?

if KSU and BYU win out, we're sitting out the CCG.