If BYU wins out and doesn’t win the CCG; I would guess they receive one of the at large bids, agree?
2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
I would hope so, but it’s not a sure thing. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana from the Big Ten are all locks barring something crazy. The SEC has six teams in the top 15 and at least four of them will make it. The Big 12, ACC, and top G5 champs are all in. That leaves one more spot for 12-1 BYU… or 11-1 Notre Dame, or 13-0 Army, or 11-2 Miami, or 10-2 Ole Miss, etc.
Colorado would eat our secondary and linebackers alive if we somehow made the CCG. That ship just sailed on Saturday anyways. I'd be shocked if they beat Utah or K-State.
I do not post much, was at KC and was not happy either. However, at the same time this team, coaches and administrators are "OUR'S", we lose 2 games and the sky is falling? No!, before the season, 8 wins seemed to be the consensus, now there's talk of canning the plan?
Get a grip... We're ISU!! I love these kids, excited they're here, coaches too. Have some class people
Nobody's quitting on these guys inside the doors and I'm not either.
Get a grip... We're ISU!! I love these kids, excited they're here, coaches too. Have some class people
Nobody's quitting on these guys inside the doors and I'm not either.
They should be based on resume, but I listen to a lot of national CFB media and the overwhelming opinion amongst non-Big XII folks is no, they would be out. And it's not even being discussed on those programs, it's just being presented as a fact. We'll see, but I suspect we're a 1-bid league at the end of the year no matter what.
I think they need to be be ranked around where they are now for that to happen.. 5-6. Hard for me to see them dropping from 6 to 13 after a CCG loss.
BUT this is the committee we are talking about here..
BYU... depends.
IF lets say Iowa State, Colorado and K-State all each lose another game, then beat them in the title game and they lost to a 9-3 team... I think they are out and we're a one bid league.
If its a two loss team and whatever team BYU plays just completely boat races them 38-10... I think its a one bid league.
If, its a two loss team and BYU loses say 27-20 type of score and they are now 12-1... then I think they are in. Especially if rose colored glasses on, if Iowa State beats Cincinnati (probably bowl team), Utah (Could be a bowl team but a road game so still difficult) and then beats what *probably* could be a ranked K-State team.... and then turns around and beats BYU... I think its a two bid league.
Same's true for Colorado, K State. Basically if any of those 2or Iowa State win out - and BYU's undefeated and loses close, 2 bid league. Where its guaranteed a 1 bid league is if Arizona State takes down BYU on the 23rd. Because then its at best a 1 loss BYU vs. at best a 2 loss someone else.
IF lets say Iowa State, Colorado and K-State all each lose another game, then beat them in the title game and they lost to a 9-3 team... I think they are out and we're a one bid league.
If its a two loss team and whatever team BYU plays just completely boat races them 38-10... I think its a one bid league.
If, its a two loss team and BYU loses say 27-20 type of score and they are now 12-1... then I think they are in. Especially if rose colored glasses on, if Iowa State beats Cincinnati (probably bowl team), Utah (Could be a bowl team but a road game so still difficult) and then beats what *probably* could be a ranked K-State team.... and then turns around and beats BYU... I think its a two bid league.
Same's true for Colorado, K State. Basically if any of those 2or Iowa State win out - and BYU's undefeated and loses close, 2 bid league. Where its guaranteed a 1 bid league is if Arizona State takes down BYU on the 23rd. Because then its at best a 1 loss BYU vs. at best a 2 loss someone else.
Should be hard to move up non championship playing teams because they will be idle and not adding to their resume. Unfortunately could be a screw job.
Well this is an overreaction. You can’t see KU beating CU based on what we’ve seen from them the past two weeks? And if ISU can right the ship against a bad Cincy team and a banged up Utah team, maybe there’s a chance to knock off KSU? Maybe we’ll have another snow game and Abu blows up again.
I’m not putting the chance above 15% or so, but to say it is 0 is hyperbolic.
speaking of... just saw they had to go back to true freshman QB, Wilson. They had played a different guy last week but he got injured and is out the rest of the year. They're a mess.
Two very winnable games coming up with the K-State tilt to end the year. Us winning the next 2, is more likely than CU winning their next 2.. IMO. FWIW, I think CU loses @ Kansas on Nov. 23rd.
I decided to try and forecast the remainder of the season for the top 25 teams in the CFP, which is admittedly a fool's errand, but there are a lot of byes and cupcakes left, so this probably isn't too far off:
| CFP Rank | Team | Record | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Projected Record |
1 | Oregon | 10-0 | at Wisconsin | Bye | Washington | 12-0 |
2 | Ohio State | 8-1 | at Northwestern | Indiana | Michigan | 11-1 |
3 | Texas | 8-1 | at Arkansas | Kentucky | at Texas A&M | 11-1 |
4 | Penn State | 8-1 | at Purdue | at Minnesota | Maryland | 11-1 |
5 | Indiana | 10-0 | Bye | at Ohio State | Purdue | 11-1 |
6 | BYU | 9-0 | Kansas | at Arizona State | Houston | 12-0 |
7 | Tennessee | 8-1 | at Georgia | UTEP | at Vanderbilt | 10-2 |
8 | Notre Dame | 8-1 | Virginia | Army (neutral) | at USC | 11-1 |
9 | Miami | 9-1 | Bye | Wake Forest | at Syracuse | 11-1 |
10 | Alabama | 7-2 | Mercer | at Oklahoma | Auburn | 10-2 |
11 | Mississippi | 8-2 | Bye | at Florida | Miss St | 10-2 |
12 | Georgia | 7-2 | Tennessee | UMass | Georgia Tech | 10-2 |
13 | Boise State | 8-1 | at San Jose State | at Wyoming | Oregon State | 11-1 |
14 | SMU | 8-1 | Boston College | at Virginia | Cal | 11-1 |
15 | Texas A&M | 7-2 | NM State | at Auburn | Texas | 9-3 |
16 | Kansas State | 7-2 | Arizona State | Cincinnati | at Iowa State | 10-2 |
17 | Colorado | 7-2 | Utah | at Kansas | Oklahoma State | 10-2 |
18 | Wazzu | 8-1 | at New Mexico | at Oregon State | Wyoming | 11-1 |
19 | Louisville | 6-3 | at Stanford | Pitt | at Kentucky | 8-4 |
20 | Clemson | 7-2 | at Pitt | Citadel | SCar | 10-2 |
21 | SCar | 6-3 | Mizzou | Wofford | at Clemson | 8-4 |
22 | LSU | 6-3 | at Florida | Vanderbilt | Oklahoma | 9-3 |
23 | Mizzou | 7-2 | SCar | at Mississippi State | Arkansas | 9-3 |
24 | Army | 9-0 | Bye | Notre Dame (neutral) | UTSA | 11-1 |
25 | Tulane | 8-2 | at Navy | Bye | Memphis | 10-2 |
In this scenario, I think we'd have the following P4 CCG matchups:
Big XII: BYU vs Colorado
B1G: Oregon vs Ohio State
ACC: SMU vs Miami
SEC: Texas vs Alabama
Now let's pretend we get the following conference champion autobids:
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Colorado
And here are the remaining 2-loss (regular season) or better from the P2+ND:
Oregon (12-1)
Penn State (11-1)
Notre Dame (11-1)
Indiana (11-1)
Tennessee (10-2)
Ole Miss (10-2)
Georgia (10-2)
Alabama (10-3)
And that's 13 teams. Do they leave out the SEC runner up? They've stated multiple times they won't punish a team for losing a CCG, but I betcha that only truthfully applies to the P2. Zero chance they leave out an SEC-runner up Bama. And I suspect Indiana would the one left out. Either way, BYU ain't making it in over any of these programs.
BYU would still have an argument over some of those, teams. I know, its the Big 12 and BYU, but that would mean they have a victory AT ACC champ SMU, and also a decisive win over K-State who is (probably) going to be ranked.
Alot of hypotheticals still out there, for sure.
I agree there's a very valid argument for them to be in, but I don't believe that will matter if it unfolds this way.
Them jumping from 9 to 6 this week is laugh out loud funny. They should have been 6 last week. But somehow it took a Miami loss?
Completely agreed on that. That jump was wild to me, but I'll take it. Like I said a few posts up, I was pleasantly surprised with BYU coming in at 6. I hope I'm wrong about the final outcome.
yeah, it took a Miami loss for BYU to jump Tennessee? Makes perfect sense...LOL
Have a blast with this now...If Arizona wins out then this is accurate. However, it's not accurate if Arizona loses one and there's a 3-way tie. In that situation, because not all the teams played each other, the head-to-head tiebreak step is ignored unless one of the three teams swept the other two. That didn't happen here.
It moves on to other steps, where the exact placement depends on which team beat Arizona and how other teams did in games not involving these three teams. You can run those scenarios here:
mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator
Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakersbball.notnothing.net
There are definitely cases where ISU is #3, but not all of them.
