I think we just need Kansas. Cause then if we win out we'd have the tie breaker by beating K-State while Colorado lost to K-State. That is the simple path. BYU is trickier cause they beat K-State, UCF, Baylor, Utah, etc... so IDK how that would break down.
2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
According to Mred’s calc:
1. Colorado (8 - 1)
2. Iowa St (7 - 2)
Above BYU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4321).
3. BYU (7 - 2)
Below Iowa St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3827).
4. Ariz St (6 - 3)
Above Baylor based on winning percentage against #2 teams all played one time (1-0).
KSU would be 5-4 while Tech, Baylor and ASU would be 6-3. Colorado would be 2-0 against that group, and we would be 1-1.
Not if Tech beats OSU. We need BYU to lose again, IMO
Kansas for sure. But BYU is mixed. I’d for sure prefer to play BYU if KU wins. But, if CU wins, an ASU win keeps another door slightly ajar. I’m assuming there is no scenario that BYU loses to Houston after beating ASU. But maybe UA gets ASU as that’s a rivalry and anything can happen.
Sure. But the problem is, that could change depending on how all the other opponents do. For example if Okie State goes 1-1 and Houston goes 0-2, etc, that can change. So that's why I say it becomes so much muddier because depending on how the un-common opponents perform... those percentages look really different.
Colorado losing by far is the easiest most straight forward path that doesn't rely on a bunch of other teams.
If Arizona and Okie State each win a couple and West Virginia, Houston and Tech all lose etc.. those numbers are different.
But then we also need West Virgnia to win and we need Arizona to keep losing. We'd need Houston to win and ASU to lose because ironically, ASU beating BYU helps their conference winning percentage increase which in theory, could possibly vault BYU over Iowa State if Iowa State's opponents lose and BYU's win out.
It just becomes a cluster of uncontrollable events hoping for BYU to lose cause then we need XYZ to happen.
Kansas just needs to beat Colorado. And of course, we need to win out.
Attachments
If BYU OR Arizona beats ASU
AND Kansas beats Colorado
AND Iowa State beats Utah and KSU
Iowa State is in the B12 Title Game against BYU. (I think.)
There are other possible ways too But that's the most likely path for ISU.
AND Kansas beats Colorado
AND Iowa State beats Utah and KSU
Iowa State is in the B12 Title Game against BYU. (I think.)
There are other possible ways too But that's the most likely path for ISU.
I don’t think the lower teams records matter. Even if UA and OSU win a few, I think the tie breaker over BYU is set if they drop one of their remaining games. But there are only so many scenarios I’ve plugged into the calculator. What I’ve found is there are two legitimate routes:
1. CU loses to KU
2. ASU beats BYU, then loses to UA
3. BYU beats ASU, then loses to UH (not realistic)
Of course, all depend on ISU winning out.
mred's Big 12 FB Standings Generator
Big 12 Conference Football Standings with Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
Interesting. But then why would we be ahead in terms of conference winning percentage of opponents? That's the part that makes me think it does matter, because IDK how else we'd be ahead on a tie breaker since we won't play BYU? But it is interesting but also makes the head hurt.
Damn it Kansas, just win.
1. CU loses to KU
2. ASU beats BYU, then loses to UA OR
3. BYU beats ASU... Doesn't matter if they beat Houston
ISU is in and would play BYU.
We can't say well, if Colorado beats Kansas then we just have to hope they lose to OSU...That won't work for ISU because we lost to Kansas and Colorado will have beaten Kansas under that scenario.
Kansas has to beat Colorado OR BYU has to lose out AND Arizona has to beat ASU for ISU to get in.
Kansas has to beat Colorado OR BYU has to lose out AND Arizona has to beat ASU for ISU to get in.
Yes...if that doesn't happen though then ASU will have to lose to AZ for ISU to get in...provided Kansas beats Colorado.
Sunday morning thoughts:
ISU is the hateful 8's only hope to reach the CCG.
So much for new teams having a hard time in new conferences, ASU and Colo in B12, SMU in ACC, Tex in SEC, UO in B1G. BYU is also still "newish".
There was a lot of losses in the bottom of the CFP/Polls; ISU and ASU will be ranked, KSU might claw in at 25. If so I think that would be the most ranked B12 teams in one week - 5?
ISU is the hateful 8's only hope to reach the CCG.
So much for new teams having a hard time in new conferences, ASU and Colo in B12, SMU in ACC, Tex in SEC, UO in B1G. BYU is also still "newish".
There was a lot of losses in the bottom of the CFP/Polls; ISU and ASU will be ranked, KSU might claw in at 25. If so I think that would be the most ranked B12 teams in one week - 5?
