I am always taken aback by people who think that the past determines the present.
Applying that logic to the last forty years, we’ve won four games this season.
Oops.
2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
Applying that logic to the last forty years, we’ve won four games this season.
Oops.
Porter is the highest listed draft prospect on a few boards. His pure speed helps him.
I had been very critical of Porter as a CB, he’s shut me up a little this year. Seems like he’s having a great year.
If AZ St beats BYU and KU beats CO; ISU gets in. If BYU wins out and KU beats CO, ISU drops to 3rd (due to TX Tech loss-group tied for #4)
I think the clearest path and most likely way for us to get the CCG is for KU to beat CU and ASU to beat BYU. They all have very winnable games week 14 and if either of those games go the other way, we need some other teams to lose for tie breaker scenarios.
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So the answer is no we don’t have tiebreaker on Colorado but get in with a three way tie with The Buffs and the Devils
My stepdaughter went to ASU. So ASU vs ISU in the Championship would be really cool.
Looking at this week's outcomes (and assuming we win out):
BYU & Colorado win - Basically screwed. Would need BYU to lose at home to Houston the last week.
BYU & Kansas win - If everyone holds serve the last week it's a tie for 2nd between us and Colorado, which would come down to a proxy war between K-State (for us) and Tech (for CU) in the conference standings. They're currently tied at 4-3, but we'd be giving K-State a loss the last week, so Tech would have to drop at least one. If K-State and Tech finish with the same record it comes down to conference SoS, which we have a decent edge on at the moment.
ASU & Colorado win - Colorado would be a game clear with a three-way tie for second. ASU would win that tiebreaker if everyone wins the last week. If ASU loses @Zona we'd go to SoS with BYU and be in good shape. If BYU loses to Houston somehow, us and ASU comes down to a proxy war between Cincy (us) and Kansas. If they tie we again go to SoS, and again have the current lead there.
ASU & Kansas win - Everyone is on two losses. If everyone stays on two losses it's ASU and probably us on SoS over BYU. If ASU loses @Zona, we're in. If Colorado loses to OSU we're probably in on SoS over BYU. If BYU loses to Houston it's extremely complicated between ASU, Colorado, and us, but we might get left out there. If two of those three happen, we're in clean.
Given that, I think we're pulling for ASU no matter what Colorado does.
BYU & Colorado win - Basically screwed. Would need BYU to lose at home to Houston the last week.
BYU & Kansas win - If everyone holds serve the last week it's a tie for 2nd between us and Colorado, which would come down to a proxy war between K-State (for us) and Tech (for CU) in the conference standings. They're currently tied at 4-3, but we'd be giving K-State a loss the last week, so Tech would have to drop at least one. If K-State and Tech finish with the same record it comes down to conference SoS, which we have a decent edge on at the moment.
ASU & Colorado win - Colorado would be a game clear with a three-way tie for second. ASU would win that tiebreaker if everyone wins the last week. If ASU loses @Zona we'd go to SoS with BYU and be in good shape. If BYU loses to Houston somehow, us and ASU comes down to a proxy war between Cincy (us) and Kansas. If they tie we again go to SoS, and again have the current lead there.
ASU & Kansas win - Everyone is on two losses. If everyone stays on two losses it's ASU and probably us on SoS over BYU. If ASU loses @Zona, we're in. If Colorado loses to OSU we're probably in on SoS over BYU. If BYU loses to Houston it's extremely complicated between ASU, Colorado, and us, but we might get left out there. If two of those three happen, we're in clean.
Given that, I think we're pulling for ASU no matter what Colorado does.
Am I correct that there is no outcome this week where if we win we are eliminated heading into the final week and no outcome where we control our own destiny going into the final week?
We can't be eliminated if we beat Utah. I think we would control our own destiny if ISU, BYU, Kansas, K-State, and OSU all win this week, but that's a long shot.
ISU still has a chance at the title no matter what happens with every other conference game as long as we beat Utah. If BYU and Colorado win, that puts ISU as a longshot to make it. If ISU, Colorado, and BYU win this weekend then there are four scenarios, only two of them getting us into the 'ship.
-BYU and Colorado win: we are out
-BYU wins and Colorado loses: we get left out
-Colorado wins and BYU loses: we are in
BYU and Colorado lose: we are in
Colorado gets Oklahoma State last game of the season. I don't see them losing to Oklahoma State. The pokes are horrible. BYU gets Houston at home. BYU would have to play really awful football to lose that one. Really hoping both Colorado and BYU lose outright. Hopefully BYU is mad shooketh after losing a home game to Kansas and loses to Arizona State and OSU.
Not sure if this is going to make me feel better or worse, but I suspect better. IF we had beaten Texas Tech, would we essentially be in the same position of needing Colorado to lose in order to have any assurances?
Maybe our tie breaker situation would have been improved.
Maybe our tie breaker situation would have been improved.
The Big 12 should consider bringing back divisions. Especially if we're going to be a one bid league for the CFP, we shouldn't have some obscure tiebreakers decide who gets to play for that opportunity. We could have balanced schedules and simple head to head tiebreakers instead. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the other conferences go this route.
The divisional schedules in the 12-team Big 12 were some of the most unbalanced ever, but we'll magically figure it out with 16 teams?
The whole conference is competitive right now and so it shouldn't be too hard to create balanced divisions. It's not like the old North and South. The current schedules aren't balanced anyways.
I do think there is a legitimate question about going back to divisions. The point of going away from divisions was to get your best teams playing in order to get the best opportunities for the playoffs. If you have the divisions you maybe have more standardized schedules. Say 7 division games and 2 cross division games.
Who knows at this point what is the best solution but it is important to consider options as there is so much change in college football
I think this is the most fair way to do things. Having balanced schedules with the teams you’re competing against for that CCG is important. More so in a conference that will not be guaranteed a second CFP team. So even if the divisions aren’t perfectly balanced, you still feel like the teams are decided by your games and not the results of some lower level game for the tie breakers.
