So you’d rather potentially run into Auburn in Atlanta, Purdue in Indy, or Duke in Jersey?
2025 Bracketologies
- Thread starter dahliaclone
- Start date
Outside of the obvious ones like MSU in Detroit, or potentially UConn in Boston last year, fretting about who’s in your bracket seems pointless.
Last year we were freaking out about the second round matchup with Drake that was totally going to happen. And a potential date with BYU in the S16. Cougs got upset and Wazzu turned out to be a salty opponent.
2022 Iowa had a great path on paper to get to the second weekend. And got bounced.
That same year we were mad about having to play Wisconsin in Milwaukee. Then Otz and Kalscheur said “watch this.”
You want to make a final four run? Can’t be afraid of anyone, anywhere. And we love March madness because teams get upset and bounced out of nowhere.
Enjoy the ride.
Last year we were freaking out about the second round matchup with Drake that was totally going to happen. And a potential date with BYU in the S16. Cougs got upset and Wazzu turned out to be a salty opponent.
2022 Iowa had a great path on paper to get to the second weekend. And got bounced.
That same year we were mad about having to play Wisconsin in Milwaukee. Then Otz and Kalscheur said “watch this.”
You want to make a final four run? Can’t be afraid of anyone, anywhere. And we love March madness because teams get upset and bounced out of nowhere.
Enjoy the ride.
We’re just looking passed the 3 and 6 seeds? That’s the draw IMO. Everything passed that is hypothetical.
A matchup against Tech or KU isn't going to happen, and a game against Purdue in Indy seems less than ideal.
It's the NCAA Tourney - you're eventually going to have to play someone - especially in the Sweet 16 - and Wisky in SF doesn't scare me in the least.
Yeah, I am beyond worrying about theoretical matchups because 95% of the time they never materialize, and it's just as likely that you'll get beat by someone you weren't worried about. There are very few tournaments where you'll get a path that just opens up for you. The guys just have to go out there and take it, and I think we have a team that can beat anyone if they put their game on the floor.
I guess this year, I’m just not afraid of anyone. We’ve already proven we can play with auburn. We’ve also showed that we can lose to bubble type teams if we’re not playing well. So to me, it’s much more about how we’re playing than who or where.
This.
I said this about 2 weeks ago...just want to be as healthy as possible and playing our best ball come March. The Cyclones can beat anyone when they're right!
Just because fans might prefer one path over another doesn't mean we're scared of certain teams. It can be fun to speculate & come up with different scenarios, what's the harm?
Definitely no harm in that and there are going to be some paths that are harder than others. I just feel like last year, you absolutely did not want to play UCONN especially in Boston. They were a team that was most likely going to win it and you wanted to avoid playing them for as long as possible. This year, Auburn is the big bad and we were up 18 on them at one point. There is zero doubt we can beat them if we're playing well. Teams should be scared of US. How would you like to be a 1 seed and have ISU as a 2 or 3 in your region?
SIAP, sharing a good bracketology website that helps keeps tracks of Quad wins and bracket metrics.
bracketologists.com
Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists
Definitely fun to speculate and discuss. I agree most of this discussion isn't "scared," more like "prefer (opponent X at venue Y) over (other)."
As @Cyched and others noted, the path isn't predictable anyway. I think there's a tendency when we assess bracket placement, there's underlying assumption all the favored seeds advance throughout, it's a natural "default" to think like that.
Such as, Iowa State could get a 3 seed, so assumption is (14)-6-2-1 path, when actually it could be 11-7-8.
In plenty of cases over the years, 3 playing 6 might be preferable to facing an 11 (frequently one of those gets onto a deep-run roll).
I've been posting my bracketology projections here the last few years. No time like the present with the early reveal happening tomorrow.
This will be my ninth year doing bracketology. On the Bracket Matrix rankings page, I'm currently ranked 34th out of 179 of those who have been doing it 3+ years. Not to brag, but that's far ahead of Lunardi (118th) or Palm (164th).
Here's the link to where I post my bracket. Also included there is a Google Sheets tab where you can look at the resume and key metrics of each team in the top 85 of the NET and sort/filter/tinker with the data however you desire. Recently, I've been building a regression model based on past tournament's fields. My projected seed list is mostly based on that, with a few tweaks where I see fit.
Here's my first bracket projection.
Some ISU specific notes:
This will be my ninth year doing bracketology. On the Bracket Matrix rankings page, I'm currently ranked 34th out of 179 of those who have been doing it 3+ years. Not to brag, but that's far ahead of Lunardi (118th) or Palm (164th).
Here's the link to where I post my bracket. Also included there is a Google Sheets tab where you can look at the resume and key metrics of each team in the top 85 of the NET and sort/filter/tinker with the data however you desire. Recently, I've been building a regression model based on past tournament's fields. My projected seed list is mostly based on that, with a few tweaks where I see fit.
Here's my first bracket projection.
Some ISU specific notes:
- I've got ISU as the second 3-seed right now, just behind Wisconsin. Wisconsin isn't being talked about in that 2 or 3-seed neighborhood right now, but they've got a strong resume currently. Their NET is a bit lower at 17, but they are 12-5 in the first 2 quadrants and are 13/9/11 in KPI/SOR/WAB resume metrics. As a comp, ISU has a NET of 7, is 10-5 in first 2 quadrants and are 17/8/12 in KPI/SOR/WAB metrics. Pretty close resumes currently.
- Due to Wisconsin being just ahead of ISU, I have Purdue and Wisconsin getting Milwaukee for the first weekend. I have Texas A&M and Houston getting Wichita, which means ISU would go to Denver.
- Technically, ISU is closer to Cleveland than Denver by 19 miles as the crow flies but closer to Denver by drive time. I don't know which the committee uses in those instances. I've always assumed "as the crow flies", but I can't imagine them sending ISU to Cleveland over Denver in this scenario.
- One good thing for ISU fans -- Purdue and Wisconsin play on Saturday, so one will be taking a loss. Personally, I think ISU should be rooting for Purdue. They are "further ahead" than Wisconsin in the seed list and Purdue has a tougher schedule down the stretch where they could drop more games. Wisconsin winning at Purdue on Saturday would be a big boost for their resume, and I assume that would definitely vault them ahead of ISU in the pecking order.
- Just looking at current resumes and future schedules, it will be very difficult for ISU to pass Auburn, Duke, and Florida. Alabama's schedule is brutal down the stretch, so that's a possibility. Same with Tennessee and Texas A&M. And then obviously, ISU plays Houston so that could be a big one for seeding and first weekend location purposes.
- Not related to ISU but a Big 12 note -- it's absurd that BYU can just say "we won't play on Friday/Sunday". Makes putting them into a bracket overly complicated, especially when they share the 11-line with the First Four teams.
If you go to the team sheet, it breaks it down to 1A, 1B, etc.SIAP, sharing a good bracketology website that helps keeps tracks of Quad wins and bracket metrics.
Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists
Iowa State Cyclones NET Team Sheet at Bracketologists
I enjoy following your projections each year.
It'd make sense in your seedings with ISU having to go to Denver. But that's the type of "danger" the further a team falls down the seed line. I hold no realistic hope of a 1, but ISU still can attain 2 line.
Re: BYU. I can respect the rule from their perspective, but it still can skew what's fair for other teams in bracket. Not saying it's going to be to BYU's advantage, but it could be in some instances. Last season, didn't committee have to drop BYU from 5 seed to 6 seed because of the no-Sunday rule? I might not be remembering that correctly. (BYU lost to Duquesne anyway, so it became moot).
Re: BYU. They should be treated the same as any other team. If it falls on a Sunday, they can pray for forgiveness or forfeit.
For real? I'd love either match up. Memphis is only in the 60's in O-rating and turns the ball over a ton, we could feast in that matchup. The only scary thing about them is they are a really good 3 point shooting team.
Wisconsin, I'm just not buying at all. They're up there with the six Quad 1 wins and no losses in Quad 2 - 4, but look at those wins and they aren't actually all that impressive. Arizona is the best win, but that team is wildly different now than when they played in Madison. Aside from that, Ohio State is an okay win and then four Quad 1 road wins against Rutgers, Iowa, USC and Northwestern. None of those teams are any good.
Now they have some opportunities coming up for sure to prove it though. At Purdue and Michigan State and Illinois at home.
Palm sucks at this but I would take this path. Maryland isn't ideal but other seeds don't scare me too much
www.cbssports.com
2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball
CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.
Lunardi is also not good but I'd take this over Palm at this point. Sign me up.
Way-Too-Early men's Bracketology: Defending champion Florida returns to the top line
Florida benefited from the transfer portal -- and some key NBA draft withdrawals -- to get to the top line.
www.espn.com
I’d say we’re an 80% chance at getting Milwaukee. I mentioned in another thread, but the good thing about all these SEC and southeastern teams being ranked so highly is that leaves Milwaukee pretty open for the Cyclones.
Lexington, Raleigh, Cleveland, Wichita, and even Providence are all closer to those schools than Milwaukee.
We really just need to finish ahead of either Wisconsin or Purdue (or both) on the seed lines to earn Milwaukee. Although I see Michigan inching up as well so we’d need to finish ahead of 2 of those 3 (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Purdue).
Lexington, Raleigh, Cleveland, Wichita, and even Providence are all closer to those schools than Milwaukee.
We really just need to finish ahead of either Wisconsin or Purdue (or both) on the seed lines to earn Milwaukee. Although I see Michigan inching up as well so we’d need to finish ahead of 2 of those 3 (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Purdue).
Palm sucks at this but I would take this path. Maryland isn't ideal but other seeds don't scare me too much
2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball
CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.
This has a potential matchup with Drake in the 2nd round? Hmmm...
