UNLV is the automatic qualifier from the Moutain West; they won't be in a play-in game.
2024-25 ISU WBB Season Thread
- Thread starter mred
- Start date
Seems like a reasonably favorable schedule here for going a nice run to end the regular season:
vs. Colorado, probably a win
@ Kansas, probably a win
vs. Houston, probably a win
@ Baylor, probably a loss
@ UCF, probably a win
vs. KSU, probably a loss
Works out to "probably" a 20-11 (11-7) record. Would be great to pick up a home win over the Mildcats to end the year. We played them tough on the road and almost won that game.
vs. Colorado, probably a win
@ Kansas, probably a win
vs. Houston, probably a win
@ Baylor, probably a loss
@ UCF, probably a win
vs. KSU, probably a loss
Works out to "probably" a 20-11 (11-7) record. Would be great to pick up a home win over the Mildcats to end the year. We played them tough on the road and almost won that game.
Updated Big 12 standings. Wednesday (2/12) is the last set of open dates; after that, all teams will have 5 games remaining.
Looking ahead, the bottom 8 teams play on Day 1 in Kansas City. 5-8 start on Day 2, and 1-4 get the double bye to Day 3.
Houston has already clinched a Day 1 appearance at T-Mobile.
Looking ahead, the bottom 8 teams play on Day 1 in Kansas City. 5-8 start on Day 2, and 1-4 get the double bye to Day 3.
Houston has already clinched a Day 1 appearance at T-Mobile.
| TEAM | W-L | Feb. 11-12 |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 10-2 | at CIN (Wed.) |
| TCU | 10-2 | vs BYU (Tue.) |
| Baylor | 10-2 | vs WVU (Tue.) |
| Oklahoma State | 9-3 | vs ARI (Wed.) |
| Utah | 9-3 | vs COL (Wed.) |
| West Virginia | 9-3 | at BAY (Tue.) |
| Iowa State | 8-5 | OPEN |
| Colorado | 7-5 | at UTAH (Wed.) |
| Arizona | 6-6 | at OSU (Wed.) |
| Cincinnati | 6-6 | vs KSU (Wed.) |
| Kansas | 4-9 | OPEN |
| BYU | 3-9 | at TCU (Tue.) |
| Texas Tech | 3-10 | OPEN |
| Arizona State | 2-10 | at UCF (Wed.) |
| UCF | 1-11 | vs ASU (Wed.) |
| Houston | 1-12 | OPEN |
We played well versus not great teams the last two outings (one on the road) and played well versus KSU. Trending in the right direction. Been sort of looking for the traditional ISU 2nd half push and it might be here if they don't get too cute with lineups and ride the starters and a core six/seven.
Thinking we will finish 12-6. I will do my part by going to Mexico today for three weeks of so and probably miss all of the remaining games which I think pretty much guarantees a good finishing run. And, no, ESPN+ won't work out of country and won't work at all with a VPN. Tried Nord last year and no go. Got back to states and I was locked out. Even deleting cookies still had ESPN thinking I was using the VPN when it was off. Finally just deleted the whole Nord app.
Slipped by Nebby and up to NET # 39 after Saturday's games. Still a 10, but moving in the right direction.
Decent resolution photo of player alumnae who were at Hilton Saturday. I recognize some but not many.
ISU has two Quad 1 opportunities left, at BU and home vs KSU. If they lose both of those and don't get a Q1 win at KC, they won't get in as an at-large if the WBB Selection Committee behaves like the MBB Committee.
I think this is true in a normal year. We're not quite in a normal year, though, the bubble is very soft. We'd be definitely at risk, but we would have a decent shot to make it, even without one of those wins. Hopefully it won't end up being an issue!
I've been beating the drum for needing a Q1 win, but it is true that the bubble is really soft right now. Looking at Warren Nolan's data, I see 57 teams that are clearly in, including auto-bids where maybe the team isn't clearly in but the spot is spoken for. That leaves 11 spots for teams that don't yet have a solid NCAA Tournament resume. Some of those might go to mid-major spoilers who win their conference tournament and force the best team in the conference to take an at-large slot (although there aren't many mid-majors with great tournament resumes).
(Note: I generally flagged teams with at least 2 Q1 wins as "clearly in", with exceptions for Colorado and Texas A&M with 2 Q1 wins but bad Q2/Q3/Q4 records.)
Top ranked teams (by NET) that I didn't flag as gimmes:
#11 West Virginia. Crazy that a team that high isn't necessarily a gimme, but they are 0-2 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2. Of six remaining regular-season games, three are Quad 1 and one is just outside Q1 (home vs #26 Utah), so they'll have plenty of chances to prove they belong.
#21 Baylor. 0-3 Q1, 4-2 Q2. Very similar situation to WVU. They also have three of six remaining in Q1, so they'll also have a chance to prove it.
#24 Florida State. 1-4 Q1, 2-1 Q2. Six games left, and the last three are a Q1 murder's row: @ #25 Georgia Tech, @ #4 Notre Dame, vs. #7 Duke. Again, a good chance to prove they should belong.
#25 Georgia Tech. 1-3 Q1, 5-1 Q2. They are probably in good shape anyway, but they do have three low-level Q1 games remaining to solidify their bid.
#31 Minnesota. 0-4 Q1, 2-2 Q2. They are in a similar situation as ISU. Five games left, two are Q1. And their games are both on the road: @ #15 OSU and @ #20 MSU. They need to pull one of those two out to feel better about their chances.
#33 Creighton. 0-4 Q1, 4-0 Q2. Only Q1 game left is a likely loss @ UConn. But no bad losses means they are probably in good shape.
#38 Iowa State. 0-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 6-1 Q3 (thanks, UNI). Two Q1 games left.
I'd disagree just because of the soft bubble and the Audi Crooks factor. The selection committee is also thinking about eyeballs so the latter factors in.
In KC I'm currently mildly bullish on this team. They showed a high degree of competitiveness against KSU and TCU. Did what they were supposed to and then some in the last two games.
In the tourney, they should get past round one and would face a Q1 team in the next round. They've shown they can play with any of the teams above them (WVU is an outlier as it was there and that place is always a nightmare). If they stay where they are at (#7) they would likely play TCU or KSU (even those could change with some tough end of schedule matchups). Could they beat them? Absolutely, but I'd more likely refer to them as toss up games.
The stretch run...
| TEAM | W-L | F15-16 | F17-19 | F22-23 | F24-26 | M1-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 11-2 | vs UCF (2-11) | at WVU (9-4) | vs KAN (4-9) | vs BAY (11-2) | at ISU (8-5) |
| TCU | 11-2 | at ARI (6-7) | at ASU (2-11) | vs WVU (9-4) | vs HOU (1-12) | at BAY (11-2) |
| Baylor | 11-2 | at TTU (3-10) | at COL (7-6) | vs ISU (8-5) | at KSU (11-2) | vs TCU (11-2) |
| Oklahoma State | 10-3 | at BYU (3-10) | at UTAH (10-3) | vs COL (7-6) | vs CIN (6-7) | at KAN (4-9) |
| Utah | 10-3 | at ASU (2-11) | vs OSU (10-3) | at CIN (6-7) | at WVU (9-4) | vs BYU (3-10) |
| West Virginia | 9-4 | vs CIN (6-7) | vs KSU (11-2) | at TCU (11-2) | vs UTAH (10-3) | at CIN (6-7) |
| Iowa State | 8-5 | at KAN (4-9) | vs HOU (1-12) | at BAY (11-2) | at UCF (2-11) | vs KSU (11-2) |
| Colorado | 7-6 | vs HOU (1-12) | vs BAY (11-2) | at OSU (10-3) | vs ASU (2-11) | at TTU (3-10) |
| Arizona | 6-7 | vs TCU (11-2) | vs BYU (3-10) | at HOU (1-12) | vs TTU (3-10) | at ASU (2-11) |
| Cincinnati | 6-7 | at WVU (9-4) | at TTU (3-10) | vs UTAH (10-3) | at OSU (10-3) | vs WVU (9-4) |
| Kansas | 4-9 | vs ISU (8-5) | vs UCF (2-11) | at KSU (11-2) | at BYU (3-10) | vs OSU (10-3) |
| BYU | 3-10 | vs OSU (10-3) | at ARI (6-7) | vs ASU (2-11) | vs KAN (4-9) | at UTAH (10-3) |
| Texas Tech | 3-10 | vs BAY (11-2) | vs CIN (6-7) | at UCF (2-11) | at ARI (6-7) | vs COL (7-6) |
| Arizona State | 2-11 | vs UTAH (10-3) | vs TCU (11-2) | at BYU (3-10) | at COL (7-6) | vs ARI (6-7) |
| UCF | 2-11 | at KSU (11-2) | at KAN (4-9) | vs TTU (3-10) | vs ISU (8-5) | at HOU (1-12) |
| Houston | 1-12 | at COL (7-6) | at ISU (8-5) | vs ARI (6-7) | at TCU (11-2) | vs UCF (2-11) |
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I agree..if i were to forecast I’d say Baylor, TCU and KSU will all lose twice down the stretch. OSU likely once.
| TEAM | W-L | F16 | F17-19 | F22-23 | F24-26 | M1-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 12-2 | at WVU | vs KAN | vs BAY | at ISU | |
| Baylor | 12-2 | at COL | vs ISU | at KSU | vs TCU | |
| TCU | 11-2 | at ARI | at ASU | vs WVU | vs HOU | at BAY |
| Utah | 11-3 | vs OSU | at CIN | at WVU | vs BYU | |
| Oklahoma State | 10-4 | at UTAH | vs COL | vs CIN | at KAN | |
| West Virginia | 10-4 | vs KSU | at TCU | vs UTAH | at CIN | |
| Iowa State | 9-5 | vs HOU | at BAY | at UCF | vs KSU | |
| Colorado | 8-6 | vs BAY | at OSU | vs ASU | at TTU | |
| Arizona | 6-7 | vs TCU | vs BYU | at HOU | vs TTU | at ASU |
| Cincinnati | 6-8 | at TTU | vs UTAH | at OSU | vs WVU | |
| Kansas | 4-10 | vs UCF | at KSU | at BYU | vs OSU | |
| BYU | 4-10 | at ARI | vs ASU | vs KAN | at UTAH | |
| **Texas Tech | 3-11 | vs CIN | at UCF | at ARI | vs COL | |
| **Arizona State | 2-12 | vs TCU | at BYU | at COL | vs ARI | |
| **UCF | 2-12 | at KAN | vs TTU | vs ISU | at HOU | |
| **Houston | 1-13 | at ISU | vs ARI | at TCU | vs UCF |
**Guaranteed Day 1 game in Kansas City
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Starting to seem like we have at least a shot of moving up one or two more spots. OK St. is just so inconsistent and WVU has a scary end to the year.
The losses at OSU and at WVU, with no return chance at Hilton, will be thorns in any tiebreaker scenario.
So, you’re saying there is still a chance?
This is realistically about the best we can hope for: 1. We have to win out 2. It only takes 3-4 tossup games to go our way.
