MLB: 2015 Minnesota Twins thread

[AuH2O]

How Kyle Gibson ever built this reputation among both fans and media of being anything more than a fringe 4/5 starter is one of life's great mysteries.

Not that there's much else to choose from at this point, but that's more because of the Twins own poor planning and suspect roster managment.

Berrios. But yeah, there certainly isn't one of those young guys in bullpen with great stuff poised to break out and be effective in the rotation like some teams seem to have.

If nothing else if Gibson could at least be a decent innings eater that would be OK.

 

[FDWxMan]

Berrios. But yeah, there certainly isn't one of those young guys in bullpen with great stuff poised to break out and be effective in the rotation like some teams seem to have.

If nothing else if Gibson could at least be a decent innings eater that would be OK.

Gibson does have value as an innings eater at the back end of the rotation. But he's not a front end option or even #3 material as this team grows better.

Berrios and Santana obviously would be in front of him. Duffey and May also appear to at least have higher ceilings going forward, if afforded the same amount of chances as Gibson has had.

Gibson would have been an interesting potential offseason trade chip had he not completely gone into the tank after the All-Star break.

Instead, we'll likely see an opening day rotation of Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone?

Pour one out for Duffey, May and Berrios.

 

[FDWxMan]

Granted, something like Santana, Berrios, Duffey, May, Gibson is still basically a rotation of mostly 3s, or semi-2s and 3s best case, but a rotation of mostly 3s, a couple with 2 upside is another step or two up from where they are now.

 

[clone52]

Not a single one of those stats are in the top half of qualifiers for AL pitchers.

Not a single one. And they're all dropping like a rock tonight.

Plenty of other guys without the innings to qualify that would top him as well.


If you think Kyle Gibson should be the #2 or 3 option in the rotation, your expectations for the Twins rotation going forward are, well, exactly where they are. A bottom five rotation.

Yes, he's the Twins de facto 2 or 3, behind Santana and Duffey I guess, but...woof.

Going forward, if the Twins are going to put together a playoff team/rotation, he's a 4.

Well, in your eyes, he's gone from a fringe 4/5 starter to a #4 on a playoff team in a manner of hours. At that rate he'll be a #1 starter by the end of the night .

I did some research. You had a good point about qualifying pitchers. So I looked at the Starting Rotation of the 6 AL playoff contenders (Jays, Yanks, Royals, Rangers, Angles and Astros) plus Gibson. That is 31 total pitchers.

Gibson is 14th in ERA, 19th in WHIP, 5th in WAR, 22nd in K/9.

Based on those Rankings, I'd say he is a #3 on a playoff team.

 

[FDWxMan]

Well, in your eyes, he's gone from a fringe 4/5 starter to a #4 on a playoff team in a manner of hours. At that rate he'll be a #1 starter by the end of the night .

I did some research. You had a good point about qualifying pitchers. So I looked at the Starting Rotation of the 6 AL playoff contenders (Jays, Yanks, Royals, Rangers, Angles and Astros) plus Gibson. That is 31 total pitchers.

Gibson is 14th in ERA, 19th in WHIP, 5th in WAR, 22nd in K/9.

Based on those Rankings, I'd say he is a #3 on a playoff team.

Sorry, meant in fringe as in 4 or 5. Could have worded that better. I believe 4 on a playoff team is his ceiling.

 

[clone52]

Also, this is just Kyle Gibson's 3rd season in the majors and only 2nd full season. He has significantly improved his numbers each season.

Also, of those 30 starters on the 6 AL playoff teams, I picked out 14 that I though were definitely better than Gibson. Here are the rest. Which of these would you choose over Gibson for your #3 pitcher?

MIchael Pineda

Yordana Ventura

Drew Hutchinson

Matt Shoemaker

Collin McHue

CJ Wilson

Adam Warren

Nathan Eovaldi

Danny Duffy

Derek Holland

Kyle Gibson

Colby Lewis

RA Dickey

Martin Perez

Jared Weaver

Scott Feldmen

Jeremy Guthrie

 

[clone52]

Sorry, meant in fringe as in 4 or 5. Could have worded that better. I believe 4 on a playoff team is his ceiling.

He's already easily a #4 on a playoff team. You think there is no hope that he ever improves upon that? 2 years into his career?

 

[FDWxMan]

Also, this is just Kyle Gibson's 3rd season in the majors and only 2nd full season. He has significantly improved his numbers each season.

Also, of those 30 starters on the 6 AL playoff teams, I picked out 14 that I though were definitely better than Gibson. Here are the rest. Which of these would you choose over Gibson for your #3 pitcher?

MIchael Pineda

Yordana Ventura

Drew Hutchinson

Matt Shoemaker

Collin McHue

CJ Wilson

Adam Warren

Nathan Eovaldi

Danny Duffy

Derek Holland

Kyle Gibson

Colby Lewis

RA Dickey

Martin Perez

Jared Weaver

Scott Feldmen

Jeremy Guthrie

Well, I guess WAR would tell you to take McHugh, Eovaldi, Pineda and Lewis right off the bat. (I'd want Eovaldi and 100mph+ in my playoff rotation anyway).

So those 4 plus your 14 makes 18 pitchers, which would mean we're down to #4 starters in this fantasy draft.

He's also 10th of those extra guys in WHIP and 10th of those guys in K/9 (stats you picked).

I'll throw in FIP (Gibson 7th) and xFIP (6th) for more comparison. This is where the difference in WAR comes from...

 

[FDWxMan]

He's already easily a #4 on a playoff team. You think there is no hope that he ever improves upon that? 2 years into his career?

What playoff team is he on? And he's 27. He's not exactly a young pup.

And a favorable rank among the Twins' current rotation set up is sort of whatever for me. They're a bottom 5 rotation in the AL. In that case, being a #2 or #4 or whatever you'd rank him doesn't mean it would necessarily translate if the rotation was league average, or better obviously.

He's already made a decent jump in K/9 and is still well below league average. Guys usually don't totally remake themselves in that department, but we'll see I guess.

Yeah, he's going to set a career low in ERA, but it looks like it will still be over 4.00 which is troubling.

I just don't know how good you can be without a real out pitch and relying on ground ball double plays. It makes your outing results extremely volatile putting so many more balls in play.

 

[clone52]

Well, I guess WAR would tell you to take McHugh, Eovaldi, Pineda and Lewis right off the bat. (I'd want Eovaldi and 100mph+ in my playoff rotation anyway).

So those 4 plus your 14 are 18 pitchers, which would mean we're down to #4 starters in this fantasy draft.

He's also 10th of those extra guys in WHIP and 10th of those guys in K/9 (stats you picked).

I'll throw in FIP (Gibson 10th) and xFIP (11th) for good measure.

Actually, Gibson is higher than all of those pitchers in WAR. Where are you finding WAR? I was using espn.com stats. Eovaldi has a very high WHIP and barely strikes out more hitters than Gibson (less than half a batter per game).

My stats show Gibson as #1 in WAR, #2 in ERA, #7 in WHIP and #8 in K/9 among those.

 

[FDWxMan]

Actually, Gibson is higher than all of those pitchers in WAR. Where are you finding WAR? I was using espn.com stats. Eovaldi has a very high WHIP and barely strikes out more hitters than Gibson (less than half a batter per game).

My stats show Gibson as #1 in WAR, #2 in ERA, #7 in WHIP and #8 in K/9 among those.

Ah, ESPN must be using baseball reference WAR.

I was working off a custom list on fangraphs for convenience in comparing the names, which calculates WAR slightly differently.

You are correct on WHIP, not sure why the K/9 rates are showing differently.

Turns out fangraphs sorting stinks and was sorting everything in descending order, and not reverse for categories where higher is bad.

Corrected the above post to 7th in FIP and 6th in xFIP.

 

[clone52]

What playoff team is he on? And he's 27. He's not exactly a young pup.

And a favorable rank among the Twins' current rotation set up is sort of whatever for me. They're a bottom 5 rotation in the AL. In that case, being a #2 or #4 or whatever you'd rank him doesn't mean it would necessarily translate if the rotation was league average, or better obviously.

He's already made a decent jump in K/9 and is still well below league average. Guys usually don't totally remake themselves in that department, but we'll see I guess.

Yeah, he's going to set a career low in ERA, but it looks like it will still be over 4.00 which is troubling.

I just don't know how good you can be without a real out pitch and relying on ground ball double plays. It makes your outing results extremely volatile putting so many more balls in play.

Where are you getting your stats? Twins starters are 7th in ERA.


Who would you want as your #4 pitcher out of all of these possible playoff teams?
Gibson or RA Dickey
Gibson or Eovaldi
Gibson or Danny Duffy
Gibson or Jared Weaver
Gibson or Nick Martinez
Gibson or McHugh
Gibson or Bartolo Colon
Gibson or Lance Lynn
Gibson or Kyle Hendricks
Gibson or Jeff Locke
Gibson or Brett Anderson

I'd definitely take Lance Lynn over Gibson and maybe McHugh, but other than that, I'd say any of those teams would take Gibson as their #4 for this post season.

 

[clone52]

For next year's rotation, here is what I'd go with.
Santana
Hughes (deserves another shot)
Gibson

After those 3, I'd let Milone, May, Duffy and Berrios battle it out for the last 2 spots. May had a good start to this season as a starter, but as a starter, his numbers weren't much better than Gibson's. Plus, May has shown he can be an ELITE reliever, whereas I don't think Gibson would be an elite reliever. My guess is that Milone and Duffy start the season with Berrios getting a month or two in AAA. I'm sure a spot will open up for him.

 

[FDWxMan]

Where are you getting your stats? Twins starters are 7th in ERA.

I'd definitely take Lance Lynn over Gibson and maybe McHugh, but other than that, I'd say any of those teams would take Gibson as their #4 for this post season.

Twins SP 15th/15 in average allowed, 12th/15 OBP, 12th/15 SLG, 11th/15 OPS. Defense making numbers look better for a change.

So you're saying Gibson is a #4 on a playoff team? Isn't that pretty much an agreement then? Solid 4 vs. borderline 4/5 hardly seems like much of an argument at this point.

 

[thatguy]

Where are you getting your stats? Twins starters are 7th in ERA.


Who would you want as your #4 pitcher out of all of these possible playoff teams?
Gibson or RA Dickey
Gibson or Eovaldi
Gibson or Danny Duffy
Gibson or Jared Weaver
Gibson or Nick Martinez
Gibson or McHugh
Gibson or Bartolo Colon
Gibson or Lance Lynn
Gibson or Kyle Hendricks
Gibson or Jeff Locke
Gibson or Brett Anderson

I'd definitely take Lance Lynn over Gibson and maybe McHugh, but other than that, I'd say any of those teams would take Gibson as their #4 for this post season.

Silly Rabbit you don't use your fourth starter in the playoffs.

Also, AL Central Champs! Take that Twinkies!

 

[FDWxMan]

For next year's rotation, here is what I'd go with.
Santana
Hughes (deserves another shot)
Gibson

After those 3, I'd let Milone, May, Duffy and Berrios battle it out for the last 2 spots. May had a good start to this season as a starter, but as a starter, his numbers weren't much better than Gibson's. Plus, May has shown he can be an ELITE reliever, whereas I don't think Gibson would be an elite reliever. My guess is that Milone and Duffy start the season with Berrios getting a month or two in AAA. I'm sure a spot will open up for him.

I could go with this. I've seen enough of Milone. I don't know what you could get in a trade for him, but I'd at least shop around.

I agree Hughes deserves another shot, but it will be interesting to see if his arm/back isn't just completely hosed. Missing velocity is disturbing.

Interesting May/Gibson note, May is a year and a half younger, and was in his first season starting relating to our future improvement debate

Pelfrey should have been the one demoted, not the guy that hasn't even failed yet as a starter. Failed starters become great/good relievers all the time: Perkins, Glen; Nathan, Joe; Davis, Wade; Rivera, Mariano. I can go on.

Pelf probably could have carved a role and limited his exposure at the same time. He had the velo for the pen. win/win

 

[clone52]

I could go with this. I've seen enough of Milone. I don't know what you could get in a trade for him, but I'd at least shop around.

I agree Hughes deserves another shot, but it will be interesting to see if his arm/back isn't just completely hosed. Missing velocity is disturbing.

Interesting May/Gibson note, May is a year and a half younger, and was in his first season starting relating to our future improvement debate

Pelfrey should have been the one demoted, not the guy that hasn't even failed yet as a starter. Failed starters become great/good relievers all the time: Perkins, Glen; Nathan, Joe; Davis, Wade; Rivera, Mariano. I can go on.

Pelf probably could have carved a role and limited his exposure at the same time. He had the velo for the pen. win/win

I agree about Pelfrey. Probably should have been the one demoted to the pen, but who knows if he would have had the mentality for it. May has been huge in the pen which might be a big reason they still have a shot at the playoffs.


Maybe ideally you'd have a Rotation of Santana, Berrios, May, Duffy and Gibson. You somehow trade Milone and Hughes to get that rotation. If you do that, what happens when your starters start getting injured? Not much depth there.

 

[clone52]

Oh, and I'm in no way giving up on May as a starter. I'd have him neck and neck with Gibson. I just think he has shown real value on the pen and leaving him there would allow the Twins to keep some organizational depth with pitchers.

 

[FDWxMan]

I agree about Pelfrey. Probably should have been the one demoted to the pen, but who knows if he would have had the mentality for it. May has been huge in the pen which might be a big reason they still have a shot at the playoffs.


Maybe ideally you'd have a Rotation of Santana, Berrios, May, Duffy and Gibson. You somehow trade Milone and Hughes to get that rotation. If you do that, what happens when your starters start getting injured? Not much depth there.

Yeah, somebody will always get hurt, so they can't get rid of all the extra guys. I already think there may be something bigger wrong with Hughes. Velocity has been off all year.

 

[clone52]

Yeah, somebody will always get hurt, so they can't get rid of all the extra guys. I already think there may be something bigger wrong with Hughes. Velocity has been off all year.

Who knows. He could have been hurt all year and just tried to pitch through it. It could just be that last year was a fluky year for him too.

Nolasco is a wild card too. I assume he'll be a bullpen guy next year and maybe could be very good. If they have injury problems, he might get a shot in the rotation. He's talented, so it'd be nice if he weren't completly worthless for his entire contract.