Pre-season is the time for optimism so I'll take the plunge and expect a 85 win season. I actually see enough upgrades from last year to justify the thought of winning an additional 13 games.
If nothing else, Santana can save the bullpen by eating up 200 innings. He got back on track last year by fixing a mechanics flaw that hurt his effectiveness the previous several years.
I don't see much of a regression from Hughes. Last year wasn't a lucky fluke or playing above his talent level. He was simply more consistent after scrapping his slider. His fastball/cutter/curve mix is more than enough to get hitters out. He is working on adding a few more changeups, but he will be fine as long as he leaves the slider alone.
Gibson should be a few games better as a starter. He tired down the stretch last year in his first full season after the elbow surgery. This spring he is reportedly stronger and has added about 3 mph to his fastball. The added strength should make his go-to sinker pitch much more effective.
Nolasco can't be any worse this year. If he is, he won't have a spot in the rotation by July with some of the other potential starters available. He did the team a disservice last year by not coming clean about the nagging injuries that affected him the majority of the season. When he finally got properly rehabbed, he finished strong with 5 September starts with a sub 3 ERA.
The 5th starter spot at least has multiple options. Meyer has the most upside and still appears to have ace potential. This spring as well as AAA last year, he has shown that he can dominate is spite of issuing 4 plus walks per game. He will never be a pinpoint control pitcher with his height, but he doesn't have to be given his stuff. He won't be on the active roster until at least July due to contract experience credit, but he will likely get his feet wet later in the year.
Any of the other 3 fifth starter candidates will probably be an upgrade from the guys the Twins trotted out last year. May struggled during a 0-4 Aug debut last year. He settled in and had a couple of quality starts in Sep. He has had a solid spring, but his lack of innings suggest that he is not leading the starter competition.
Both Milone and Pelfrey have a track record of being serviceable #5 starters - just not with the Twins. Their struggles with the Twins are tied to injuries. Elbow for Pelfrey and neck nerve for Milone. Both are supposedly healthy and ready to go following corrective surgeries. Both have been decent but not dominant this spring. The Twins have more invested in Pelfrey, but Milone is the only LH starter. If I had to guess, the Twins begin the season with Milone starting and Pelfrey in long relief.
The other big improvement for the Twins will be corner outfield defense. They were the worst in the league last year with the likes of Willingham, Arcia in right, Collabello, and Parmelee. They will not be gold glove level, but will at least close the gap this year. Arcia looked like the bad news bears at times trying to play the right field caroms in Target Field. He will be a huge upgrade this year over Willingham in left. Hunter has slipped from his former gold glove level, but still has the veteran experience to handle the quirks of right in Target Field.
While it might only last as long as the next injury, Mauer claims that he had his best offseason in several years. I'm hoping that Molly breaks the mold and improves two spots in the batting order. Sliding Mauer to the 2 hole and Dozier to 3 would make better use of both of their skills.
Other random improvements are that the Twins will not begin the season with the likes of Kubel at DH and Bartlett and Florimon at SS. Escobar had a breakout year in '14 and looks to have raised the bar even more this spring. If D Santana can hold down the SS position, Escobar can win some games this year in the role of super sub.
The two biggest questions that I have are at catcher and DH. Suzuki played at a career best level for the first 4 months, but wore down when the dog days of August hit. The Twins probably need to utilize the yet to be determined backup catcher more this year. Vargas has shown his power and run production in the minors, his call up last year, and this spring. Molitor believes that he can be a complete hitter and is working with him to tweak his approach to develop as a hitter. The success or failure of the Vargas development can be a 5 win swing in either direction. If his hitting goes south, Rosario is probably the call up whose swing is closest to being major league ready. He tore up the AFL last fall. He could slide into an OF slot and let Arcia/Hunter/Escobar share the DH duties.
The bullpen is probably a year away from being playoff quality. The Twins minor league system has the best collection of power arm relievers that I can recall. The issue is that none of them will start the year going north with the big club. There are 4-5 guys who are locks to begin the season along with 2-3 guys still battling for spots. I don't see any of them as locks to be there all season - including Perkins. I expect that a couple of guys in the pen will pitch themselves out of a spot and open the door for some of the younger hard throwers later in the year.
If nothing else, Santana can save the bullpen by eating up 200 innings. He got back on track last year by fixing a mechanics flaw that hurt his effectiveness the previous several years.
I don't see much of a regression from Hughes. Last year wasn't a lucky fluke or playing above his talent level. He was simply more consistent after scrapping his slider. His fastball/cutter/curve mix is more than enough to get hitters out. He is working on adding a few more changeups, but he will be fine as long as he leaves the slider alone.
Gibson should be a few games better as a starter. He tired down the stretch last year in his first full season after the elbow surgery. This spring he is reportedly stronger and has added about 3 mph to his fastball. The added strength should make his go-to sinker pitch much more effective.
Nolasco can't be any worse this year. If he is, he won't have a spot in the rotation by July with some of the other potential starters available. He did the team a disservice last year by not coming clean about the nagging injuries that affected him the majority of the season. When he finally got properly rehabbed, he finished strong with 5 September starts with a sub 3 ERA.
The 5th starter spot at least has multiple options. Meyer has the most upside and still appears to have ace potential. This spring as well as AAA last year, he has shown that he can dominate is spite of issuing 4 plus walks per game. He will never be a pinpoint control pitcher with his height, but he doesn't have to be given his stuff. He won't be on the active roster until at least July due to contract experience credit, but he will likely get his feet wet later in the year.
Any of the other 3 fifth starter candidates will probably be an upgrade from the guys the Twins trotted out last year. May struggled during a 0-4 Aug debut last year. He settled in and had a couple of quality starts in Sep. He has had a solid spring, but his lack of innings suggest that he is not leading the starter competition.
Both Milone and Pelfrey have a track record of being serviceable #5 starters - just not with the Twins. Their struggles with the Twins are tied to injuries. Elbow for Pelfrey and neck nerve for Milone. Both are supposedly healthy and ready to go following corrective surgeries. Both have been decent but not dominant this spring. The Twins have more invested in Pelfrey, but Milone is the only LH starter. If I had to guess, the Twins begin the season with Milone starting and Pelfrey in long relief.
The other big improvement for the Twins will be corner outfield defense. They were the worst in the league last year with the likes of Willingham, Arcia in right, Collabello, and Parmelee. They will not be gold glove level, but will at least close the gap this year. Arcia looked like the bad news bears at times trying to play the right field caroms in Target Field. He will be a huge upgrade this year over Willingham in left. Hunter has slipped from his former gold glove level, but still has the veteran experience to handle the quirks of right in Target Field.
While it might only last as long as the next injury, Mauer claims that he had his best offseason in several years. I'm hoping that Molly breaks the mold and improves two spots in the batting order. Sliding Mauer to the 2 hole and Dozier to 3 would make better use of both of their skills.
Other random improvements are that the Twins will not begin the season with the likes of Kubel at DH and Bartlett and Florimon at SS. Escobar had a breakout year in '14 and looks to have raised the bar even more this spring. If D Santana can hold down the SS position, Escobar can win some games this year in the role of super sub.
The two biggest questions that I have are at catcher and DH. Suzuki played at a career best level for the first 4 months, but wore down when the dog days of August hit. The Twins probably need to utilize the yet to be determined backup catcher more this year. Vargas has shown his power and run production in the minors, his call up last year, and this spring. Molitor believes that he can be a complete hitter and is working with him to tweak his approach to develop as a hitter. The success or failure of the Vargas development can be a 5 win swing in either direction. If his hitting goes south, Rosario is probably the call up whose swing is closest to being major league ready. He tore up the AFL last fall. He could slide into an OF slot and let Arcia/Hunter/Escobar share the DH duties.
The bullpen is probably a year away from being playoff quality. The Twins minor league system has the best collection of power arm relievers that I can recall. The issue is that none of them will start the year going north with the big club. There are 4-5 guys who are locks to begin the season along with 2-3 guys still battling for spots. I don't see any of them as locks to be there all season - including Perkins. I expect that a couple of guys in the pen will pitch themselves out of a spot and open the door for some of the younger hard throwers later in the year.
