2018-2019 computer projections thread

[MartinCy]

Barttorvik had our game score at an 89 last night

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Iowa+St.

That was a slightly below our average offensive performance and slightly above our average defense performance. I haven't read the whole game thread to see other's thoughts, but I thought our defense was really good sans the 3 minute stretch to end the 1st half. Offensively we missed a lot of open shots but wasn't mad about the looks we got for the most part.

KenPom has our adjusted offensive efficiency 17th & adjusted defensive efficiency 40th.
Barttorvik has our adjusted offensive efficiency 18th & adjusted defensive efficiency 42nd.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Barttorvik had our game score at an 89 last night

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Iowa+St.

That was a slightly below our average offensive performance and slightly above our average defense performance. I haven't read the whole game thread to see other's thoughts, but I thought our defense was really good sans the 3 minute stretch to end the 1st half. Offensively we missed a lot of open shots but wasn't mad about the looks we got for the most part.

KenPom has our adjusted offensive efficiency 17th & adjusted defensive efficiency 40th.
Barttorvik has our adjusted offensive efficiency 18th & adjusted defensive efficiency 42nd.

Barttovik giving us an 88% grade means we were better than 88% of the teams in the country last night, or something like #42 in the country if you multiply it out.

(1 - 88%) = 12% * 353 = 42.36

I think that is fair. We were okay -- good enough to win in Stillwater, but probably few other places in the Big 12, and maybe against mid-tier teams at Hilton. We are going to have to play better to beat good teams at home and much better to win in Lawrence or Lubbock.

The Team Rankings projections keep creeping up for the squad...



-- up to 22 wins projected!
-- #3 in the Big 12 and 82% of making the NCAA tournament
-- 52% chance to win against KU (and Barttovik is 61%)

It is going to be a great game on Saturday in Hilton. I am jealously stuck in Florida.

 

[cyclones500]

Interesting that it gives ISU 52% chance to win vs. Kansas. I would've guessed more like 45%. That isn't a huge difference, I know.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Interesting that it gives ISU 52% chance to win vs. Kansas. I would've guessed more like 45%. That isn't a huge difference, I know.

The computer rankings like Kansas but are not slobbering over them.

We are actually not far behind them.

Barttovik has us #17 and them #14. They have TTU at #12.

KenPom has us #16 and them #7. They have TTU at #10.

The three of us (and Oklahoma) are not far off one another.

Hilton is worth at least a few points -- making us the very slight favorites.

Barttovik projects 77-74 ISU to Kansas. That is a reasonable outcome, but I will say I am probably going to have a heart attack if it is a one-possession game like that.

 

[ComCY]

The computer rankings like Kansas but are not slobbering over them.

We are actually not far behind them.

Barttovik has us #17 and them #14. They have TTU at #12.

KenPom has us #16 and them #7. They have TTU at #10.

The three of us (and Oklahoma) are not far off one another.

Hilton is worth at least a few points -- making us the very slight favorites.

Barttovik projects 77-74 ISU to Kansas. That is a reasonable outcome, but I will say I am probably going to have a heart attack if it is a one-possession game like that.

Foul or defend?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Foul or defend?

Maybe we hit a three at the horn.

 

[mb7299]

in a round about way our strength of schedule just took a hit as Iowa's win over Oregon just took a massive hit in Bol Bol being out for the year, likely meaning Oregon is likely not a tournament team (Pac 12 is likely a one bid league this year).

 

[Sigmapolis]

in a round about way our strength of schedule just took a hit as Iowa's win over Oregon just took a massive hit in Bol Bol being out for the year, likely meaning Oregon is likely not a tournament team (Pac 12 is likely a one bid league this year).

I do not think third-order effects like that changes things much for us.

There has to be space for 2-3 teams from the Pac-12 this season, too.

 

[Cyforce]

(Pac 12 is likely a one bid league this year).

Been hearing this from the talking heads all day. Anyone seen a money line on this or an O/U. Thinking about a quick refi to move up my retirement date two or three years.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Updated NCAA NET Rankings are out 1/4/19 ISU moves down 1 spot to #30 from #29.
(FWIW Iowa dropped to #49 from #35 after PU)

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

 

[Sigmapolis]

We are up to #14 in the Barttovik rankings after that big win.

Kansas is down to #20.

Here is how the Big 12 shakes out now...



I do not want to get ahead of ourselves, and KU did themselves a big favor with that win over Oklahoma in Lawrence, but they are looking as vulnerable as I can remember them looking in some time. The opportunity is certainly there this season.

Barttovik gave us a 99% for the KU game.

We played like a Top 5 team tonight. The magic is real. Way to go, guys.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Finally back and able to post this, too.

We are not in "check mark" territory to make the NCAA tournament, but we are close to it. I think our ambitions are obviously higher now, though.

 

[Sigmapolis]

A little bonus something that I put together this evening...

Here is our "roster" (or at least the most typical starting lineups) since the beginning of the Fred era. I apologize to key bench players like Tyrus for not mentioning them.



This is mostly a reminder who was which year. Now take a look at this...



I charted out our national rankings according to five metrics. I could add more, but I figure five was enough, and those are my five favorites to use.

This team this season has a real chance of being the best since the beginning of the Fred and Steve eras in Ames. Prohm obviously had a bad season last year, but he did quite a bit with the last two years of Fred players, as we can see above.

 

[Sigmapolis]

One last bonus for the night...

http://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=B12

Only two games in, obviously, but KU has a 21.9% chance of continuing its streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season conference title there.



That bear is still incredibly dangerous, but it is bleeding more than it has in a long time. Maybe going after all these transfers is finally catching up with Toupee Bill.

Losing Dok sucks for them, too.

He is a physical specimen few teams can deal with.

The days of Devonte' Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, and Frank Mason are long gone. They do not have guards that can take over games on their own.

Guess who does?

 

[helechopper]

I really like that ISU has a balanced ADJOE (20) and ADJDE (25), such nice balance and a characteristic of teams that go deep in the tourney.

Having the # 2,5,6 and 9 ranked defenses in our conference is going to be a bear as the season goes on.

There's a lot of ball to be played but I have a growing feeling this is the year KU is usurped.

 

[FinalFourCy]

A little bonus something that I put together this evening...

Here is our "roster" (or at least the most typical starting lineups) since the beginning of the Fred era. I apologize to key bench players like Tyrus for not mentioning them.

View attachment 61446

This is mostly a reminder who was which year. Now take a look at this...

View attachment 61448

I charted out our national rankings according to five metrics. I could add more, but I figure five was enough, and those are my five favorites to use.

This team this season has a real chance of being the best since the beginning of the Fred and Steve eras in Ames. Prohm obviously had a bad season last year, but he did quite a bit with the last two years of Fred players, as we can see above.

Great stuff.
I don’t think they’re readily available, but it would be interesting to see season-to-date rankings.

The biggest/best thing imo, is defense. Prohm has built a team that’s very capable on defense, and demanding it with his rotation decisions. He made comments suggesting he took Jacobson due to his defense and rebounding, his current offense being a bonus. That’s fantastic.

 

[LLCoolCY]

NET Ranking is out for 1/7.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

NCAA NET Rankings (1/7)
1. Virginia
2. Duke
3. Michigan
4. Houston
5. Gonzaga
6. Tennessee
7. Texas Tech
8. Michigan State
9. Virginia Tech
10. North Carolina State
11. North Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Kentucky
14. Iowa State
15. Auburn
16. Kansas
17. Indiana
18. Mississippi State
19. Oklahoma
20. St. John's
21. Wisconsin
22. Marquette
23. Buffalo
24. Purdue
25. Florida State

 

[Sigmapolis]

NET Ranking is out for 1/7.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

NCAA NET Rankings (1/7)
1. Virginia
2. Duke
3. Michigan
4. Houston
5. Gonzaga
6. Tennessee
7. Texas Tech
8. Michigan State
9. Virginia Tech
10. North Carolina State
11. North Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Kentucky
14. Iowa State
15. Auburn
16. Kansas
17. Indiana
18. Mississippi State
19. Oklahoma
20. St. John's
21. Wisconsin
22. Marquette
23. Buffalo
24. Purdue
25. Florida State

Houston is #4...?

They are #30 on Barttovik and #31 on KenPom.

The rest looks fairly reasonable, but that one is making my head itch.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Ugh. I hate Baylor.

 

[Dale]

Iowa State improbably up to #12 in KenPom, their highest ranking of the season. Numbers 11 through 16 are incredibly tight, though, with 0.36 points of separation -- while #11 Wisconsin is behind #10 Kansas by over 2 points.