2018-2019 computer projections thread

MartinCy

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The barttorvik game score was a 77. It was mostly brought down because we weren't very good defensively.

ISU remains highly ranked on this site at #16.
 

Sigmapolis

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The barttorvik game score was a 77. It was mostly brought down because we weren't very good defensively.

ISU remains highly ranked on this site at #16.

Defense is dropping, offense staying pretty consistent.

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Check out the ADJD column to the right -- that is our defensive rating for the game.

Barttovik said last night was our second-worst defensive performance of the season after Iowa. The last two games have been quite out of character in this regard.

I hope we can find whatever magic we had before that again.

Our offense has turned it up, but I would like to keep the defense going, too.
 

LLCoolCY

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The defensive ratings are dropping because of rebounding. Teams are getting too many second chances.

Nice observation, getting Lard and Solo back and integrated should help with the rebounding moving forward.
 

ComCY

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View attachment 60752

Check out the ADJD column to the right -- that is our defensive rating for the game.

Barttovik said last night was our second-worst defensive performance of the season after Iowa. The last two games have been quite out of character in this regard.

I hope we can find whatever magic we had before that again.

Our offense has turned it up, but I would like to keep the defense going, too.

To be fair... those two games have had people burying 3s at a crazy rate, even with pretty good defense/close outs.

That guy from Southern had about what... 7?
 
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Sigmapolis

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To be fair... those two games have had people burying 3s at a crazy rate, even with pretty good defense/close outs.

That guy from Southern had about what... 7?

While I agree with you that opponents' 3PT% can be twitchy between games regardless of the quality of your defensive play, that was the second game in a row where that happened. I think it is fair to say it is something that we should collectively monitor from the team.

This program has suffered teams hitting above their long-term averages from 3PT against us for a long time now. After awhile, you have to think it is us, not bad luck.
 

OnlyCyclones

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I think the rebounding problem partly comes with Lard and Conditt's growing presences. Lard's seeing more time, Conditt's getting better in his limited time, and both are instinctive shot-blockers and will leave the backside open to chase a block. The guys who've been mostly playing with Jacobson need to adjust to this. More bodies back crashing the boards might help, but that will hurt our transition game. I'm no basketball coach, and I don't know how you'd go about it, but at the very least we need to limit the tip-ins.
 
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VeloClone

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I think the rebounding problem partly comes with Lard and Conditt's growing presences. Lard's seeing more time, Conditt's getting better in his limited time, and both are instinctive shot-blockers and will leave the backside open to chase a block. The guys who've been mostly playing with Jacobson need to adjust to this. More bodies back crashing the boards might help, but that will hurt our transition game. I'm no basketball coach, and I don't know how you'd go about it, but at the very least we need to limit the tip-ins.
Or in a word or two: Block out.
 

Sigmapolis

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Or in a word or two: Block out.

You rang...?

58c49168956c2.image.jpg
 

ComCY

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While I agree with you that opponents' 3PT% can be twitchy between games regardless of the quality of your defensive play, that was the second game in a row where that happened. I think it is fair to say it is something that we should collectively monitor from the team.

This program has suffered teams hitting above their long-term averages from 3PT against us for a long time now. After awhile, you have to think it is us, not bad luck.

That's easy to say if you weren't watching the games. In past years we never closed out. This year there have maybe been a handful where a guy wasn't running or already extending a hand in the face.

The Iowa and Southern games were by far the best closeouts where the team still drained shots on us I've seen.
 

Sigmapolis

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That's easy to say if you weren't watching the games. In past years we never closed out. This year there have maybe been a handful where a guy wasn't running or already extending a hand in the face.

The Iowa and Southern games were by far the best closeouts where the team still drained shots on us I've seen.

I thought Iowa got way too many open looks from three for my comfort level.
 

madguy30

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While I agree with you that opponents' 3PT% can be twitchy between games regardless of the quality of your defensive play, that was the second game in a row where that happened. I think it is fair to say it is something that we should collectively monitor from the team.

This program has suffered teams hitting above their long-term averages from 3PT against us for a long time now. After awhile, you have to think it is us, not bad luck.

I didn't think close outs were that good vs. Southern...they had open looks. Also seemed to be able to drive a bit more than I would have thought.

Maybe teams have just figured out some tendencies and are attacking those. I'd hope Lard up to speed and a healthy Young take some pressure off. I actually think Wiggs was pretty strong on the perimeter once he figured things out last year too.
 

Sigmapolis

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I didn't think close outs were that good vs. Southern...they had open looks. Also seemed to be able to drive a bit more than I would have thought.

Maybe teams have just figured out some tendencies and are attacking those. I'd hope Lard up to speed and a healthy Young take some pressure off. I actually think Wiggs was pretty strong on the perimeter once he figured things out last year too.

Yeah, the defensive intensity was not there versus Southern.

I know we were playing an awful team and backed off the intensity, had fun on offense, and then had fun helping Lard get some points and get Tyrese the assists record before putting in the back of the bench, but it was not a great defensive performance.

"Good Lard" and a healthy Young would definitely shore up a defense. Wigginton is going to be the best athlete on the court much of the time, and while he is short for the NBA, he is not for college. He has no excuse with his size and speed to not be a good defender.
 

madguy30

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Yeah, the defensive intensity was not there versus Southern.

I know we were playing an awful team and backed off the intensity, had fun on offense, and then had fun helping Lard get some points and get Tyrese the assists record before putting in the back of the bench, but it was not a great defensive performance.

"Good Lard" and a healthy Young would definitely shore up a defense. Wigginton is going to be the best athlete on the court much of the time, and while he is short for the NBA, he is not for college. He has no excuse with his size and speed to not be a good defender.

I said it in the game thread but I figured there would have been more emphasis on the defensive end after last Thursday. Not concerned as the pieces are still there but just something of note.

The team needs to get these next two, and then get some good time off to get ready for the conference opener.
 
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Sigmapolis

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We were #16 on Barttovik before Drake. We are now #17 -- fell behind Oklahoma.

Our chance to make the NCAA tournament remained unchanged.

Take care of business against EIU and gird our loins for the Big 12 slate thereafter.

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