2018-2019 computer projections thread

Thomasrickj

Well-Known Member
Feb 26, 2012
7,871
5,774
113
Arlington, VA
I’m excited about this team even after an Arizona loss. We should have beat them and could have, and this was all without two starters and two of our top three guys off the bench. ISU will be a tournament team and I think we can finish in the top 3-5 in the conference. It’s a good time to be an ISU fan!
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
26,965
41,694
113
Waukee
With all due respect to your fancy mathing, I think we could get after it more, press more, run more and go 10 deep.

Obligatory...



It is possible that CSP could take more of an NBA approach. NBA teams will often have a deeper rotation because the will have two units. Often the second unit includes only 4 players and a starter is carried into that group. CSP will need to figure out how deep we can go without a drop off and then make a rotation that works. Look at CMC, he is playing more guys than we have traditionally seen, but he is developing players by making sure guys that are ready get snaps. He is doing this and still winning

NBA games are 48 minutes, not 40, and they play games more frequently and anywhere from 82 to roughly 100 (for the teams making the Finals) per season. The college season lasts, depending on tournaments, something like 35 games.

NBA teams are obviously dominated by men in their 20s, though there are some skilled players in their 30s who are starting to pass their athletic peaks, unlike the college game with teenagers and guys in their early 20s beginning to peak.

To pick some numbers...

93 games * 48 minutes * 5 men = 22,320
34 games * 40 minutes * 5 men = 6,800

The top number is 3.28x larger than the lower number.

NBA teams have deeper rotations because they have to. They have to chew up something like three times as many minutes per season as a college team. College teams can get away with short benches because they are playing such comparatively short seasons.

I know it depends on style and pace, but playing 35+ minutes per night at a high level of efficiency is not *that* tall of an order for a 21 year old athlete in the absolute best shape of his life when he only has to play once or twice per week.

Think of a college game/season like the NBA playoffs -- both are short enough where every game really matters, and coaches keep short rotations for each because, when everything matters more, you really do need to have your best five (or maybe seven) men on the floor as often as you can. There are so few possessions that determine everything that you have to run them hard. You need what your starters can do so much more than your 8th or 9th man.
 

cyclone101

Well-Known Member
Oct 19, 2009
4,565
4,295
113
Dez Moinz
I feel like the conversation of 7-8 guys or 9-10 happens every single year. And every single year it ends up being 7-8. Let's revisit all the guys that were "really going to give us some good minutes as the tenth man off the bench" over the years. We have...
Jakolby Long
Simeon Carter
Brady Ernst
SDW
Clayton Custer
Giorgios Tsalmporous or whatever

The list goes on and on. We have this talk every year and every year it's like 8 guys that actually contribute meaningful minutes. I'm guessing we'll see 9 once we get healthy.
 

FinalFourCy

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2017
10,440
10,163
113
41
I feel like the conversation of 7-8 guys or 9-10 happens every single year. And every single year it ends up being 7-8. Let's revisit all the guys that were "really going to give us some good minutes as the tenth man off the bench" over the years. We have...
Jakolby Long
Simeon Carter
Brady Ernst
SDW
Clayton Custer
Giorgios Tsalmporous or whatever

The list goes on and on. We have this talk every year and every year it's like 8 guys that actually contribute meaningful minutes. I'm guessing we'll see 9 once we get healthy.
That’s a bad comparison.

This situation isn’t at all comparable to any of the seasons in which those guys played. Discussion about those guys playing was in October and based on CCL play.

Talk about going 9 or 10 deep this year is based on guys that are currently starting or playing significant minutes on a team with good metrics being joined in December by 3 returning starters and a very good backup.
 

Cyclonepride

Thought Police
Staff member
Apr 11, 2006
98,846
62,420
113
55
A pineapple under the sea
www.oldschoolradical.com
I feel like the conversation of 7-8 guys or 9-10 happens every single year. And every single year it ends up being 7-8. Let's revisit all the guys that were "really going to give us some good minutes as the tenth man off the bench" over the years. We have...
Jakolby Long
Simeon Carter
Brady Ernst
SDW
Clayton Custer
Giorgios Tsalmporous or whatever

The list goes on and on. We have this talk every year and every year it's like 8 guys that actually contribute meaningful minutes. I'm guessing we'll see 9 once we get healthy.

Players 9-12 on this team are all better than anyone on that list (was at that time).
 

cyclone101

Well-Known Member
Oct 19, 2009
4,565
4,295
113
Dez Moinz
That’s a bad comparison.

This situation isn’t at all comparable to any of the seasons in which those guys played. Discussion about those guys playing was in October and based on CCL play.

Talk about going 9 or 10 deep this year is based on guys that are currently starting or playing significant minutes on a team with good metrics being joined in December by 3 returning starters and a very good backup.
Players 9-12 on this team are all better than anyone on that list (was at that time).
We'll find out soon enough but I'll be surprised if it's more than 9. And mind blown if Zion and George get meaningful minutes.
 

bozclone

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 18, 2011
5,714
8,603
113
Indiana
Obligatory...





NBA games are 48 minutes, not 40, and they play games more frequently and anywhere from 82 to roughly 100 (for the teams making the Finals) per season. The college season lasts, depending on tournaments, something like 35 games.

NBA teams are obviously dominated by men in their 20s, though there are some skilled players in their 30s who are starting to pass their athletic peaks, unlike the college game with teenagers and guys in their early 20s beginning to peak.

To pick some numbers...

93 games * 48 minutes * 5 men = 22,320
34 games * 40 minutes * 5 men = 6,800

The top number is 3.28x larger than the lower number.

NBA teams have deeper rotations because they have to. They have to chew up something like three times as many minutes per season as a college team. College teams can get away with short benches because they are playing such comparatively short seasons.

I know it depends on style and pace, but playing 35+ minutes per night at a high level of efficiency is not *that* tall of an order for a 21 year old athlete in the absolute best shape of his life when he only has to play once or twice per week.

Think of a college game/season like the NBA playoffs -- both are short enough where every game really matters, and coaches keep short rotations for each because, when everything matters more, you really do need to have your best five (or maybe seven) men on the floor as often as you can. There are so few possessions that determine everything that you have to run them hard. You need what your starters can do so much more than your 8th or 9th man.


The NBA may increase the minutes of their starters in the playoffs but they don’t typically shorten their rotation. Right now I think we have 9 guys that clearly have shown they can contribute at a very high level against D1 talent. I think CSP will try to use all 9 of these guys. Obviously some will get more minutes than others, but I think all will contribute barring injuries/suspensions. Competition for minutes will make everyone better.
 

FinalFourCy

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2017
10,440
10,163
113
41
We'll find out soon enough but I'll be surprised if it's more than 9. And mind blown if Zion and George get meaningful minutes.
Good to see you backtracking.

There’s a great chance 9 guys average significant minutes this year. Has anyone talked about Zion and George getting serious minutes?
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
26,965
41,694
113
Waukee
I think both sides have some good points here.

History says Prohm (and college basketball coaches in general, save for hack-a-thon guys like Huggy Bear) play 7-8 men in their rotation. The season and games are short, players are in good shape, so put your best men forward as much as you can.

At the same time, Prohm has never had an Iowa State team with this kind of depth and flexibility. His first team had five great starters and two marginal bench guys (a developing Burton and maybe Cooke) with little after it. His second team had an okay bench, but really nothing after Jackson, Bowie, and Weiler-Babb. I think last year had a good starting five, actually, but virtually nothing on the bench to chew up minutes in a competitive manner.

Our marginal guys now (Lewis, Griffin, Conditt) are probably better than the marginal guys we had in the past (Carter, Ashton, Holden, Long, Beverly, etc.).

So we have never seem a Prohm team at Iowa State with the option to really go even much to eight, much less nine like some people are nominating here.

Good problem to have -- like @bozclone says, we do have nine men who have proven they can contribute at a high-major level. Lewis had a really good game against San Diego State, too, so do not give up on him, if not this season but maybe the next one.

I do not remember the last time that happened to have a fisc with so many options that are viable choices. We are still going to have injuries, foul trouble, and fatigue. I could see all of those nine end up with significant playing time, but eight makes sense, as well.

So we will see. :)
 

LLCoolCY

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Apr 28, 2010
10,224
17,702
113
Minneapolis
First every NET tool rankings (replacing RPI) are out.

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, which will be known as the NET, relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. To make sense of team performance data, late-season games (including from the NCAA tournament) were used as test sets to develop a ranking model leveraging machine learning techniques. The model, which used team performance data to predict the outcome of games in test sets, was optimized until it was as accurate as possible.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

ISU #32
 
  • Informative
Reactions: isutrevman

MartinCy

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2016
1,645
3,211
113
Kansas City, MO
First every NET tool rankings (replacing RPI) are out.

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, which will be known as the NET, relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. To make sense of team performance data, late-season games (including from the NCAA tournament) were used as test sets to develop a ranking model leveraging machine learning techniques. The model, which used team performance data to predict the outcome of games in test sets, was optimized until it was as accurate as possible.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

ISU #32

The NCAA just never seems to do themselves any favors
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
26,965
41,694
113
Waukee
That was a good win yesterday despite the lull in the middle of the first half. Barttovik has us up to #16 in the country and gave us a game score of 96 for UNO.

That is what happens when you beat a bad team by 27 that you were supposed to beat by 20, even needing to use some deep bench guys not ideally ready for prime-time.

Good game by TLew, too --

upload_2018-11-27_9-47-14.png

15 points in 20 minutes
3 offensive boards
2 steals, no turnovers
2/4 from three, 3/6 from the field
much -- not all -- of this against "real" competition, not in garbage time
finally morphing into that bench gunner we imagined?

upload_2018-11-27_9-44-39.png

Up to a 74% chance of making the NCAA tournament on the path we are following. :)
 

MartinCy

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2016
1,645
3,211
113
Kansas City, MO
Haslametrics gets some decent publicity on college basketball twitter. It's overall rankings system is based on "All-play percentage" which he defines as the team's estimated win percentage vs every other team based on this season's performance. Iowa State opens up as 10th in his initial rankings. As you'll see below, our early season success is attributed to balanced efficiency on offense and even more so defense.

AO = "average opponent"

ANALYSIS:
There aren't many teams in the country that have been as strong as Iowa State this year. They have a record of 6-1 and are ranked 10th overall (out of 353) in the latest Haslametrics ratings.

Iowa State has been magnificent on the defensive end of the court. The team is rated 22nd in defensive efficiency and allows fewer than 87 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Iowa State is one of the very best in the land in overall defensive field goal percentage. The team ranks #8 nationally in field goal percentage allowed, as AO only makes good on about 35.7% of their total attempts from the floor. Iowa State has also been able to successfully prevent opponents from making shots between the three-point stripe and the low post. They're ranked 31st in Division I in defensive mid-range field goal percentage, allowing AO to make good on only 25.5% of their attempts from that distance.

Iowa State plays at about the same level on offense as they do on defense. The team ranks 25th nationally in offensive efficiency, scoring about 115 points every 100 trips upcourt vs. AO. Iowa State does a really good job to acquire opportunities from the free throw line. With a free throw attempt rate of 34.51 vs. AO, they are ranked 36th in the nation at getting to the charity stripe. In addition, the team is in the top-50 in free throw shooting, converting a solid 76.8% of their attempts. Iowa State also does a pretty solid job of scoring points off of offensive rebounds. Against AO, the team successfully converts 7.2% of all second-chance opportunities (ranked 75th nationally).

Iowa State has been playing some of its most efficient basketball of the season recently and is presently ranked ninth in positive momentum. On the road, Iowa State performs somewhat better than their norm, as the squad is nationally ranked 28th in our away-from-home metric.


http://haslametrics.com/ratings2.php?yr=&tid=155
 

bawbie

Moderator
Staff member
Mar 17, 2006
54,370
47,074
113
Cedar Rapids, IA
Good problem to have -- like @bozclone says, we do have nine men who have proven they can contribute at a high-major level. Lewis had a really good game against San Diego State, too, so do not give up on him, if not this season but maybe the next one.

Weighing in on two other topics in this thread: Lewis has now had two REALLY good games in a row. And not good in the sense that he was hot from 3, he played really well on both ends, and played 'above the rim' more than I expected (offensive rebounding and attacking the basket). With these two performances, he's made clear he's not just a 3-pt shooter off the bench, but that he's earned real playing time as the #4 guard.

Also, losing to Arizona sucked, but was a very good thing in the end giving who we had available. I'd much rather lose a close one to Arizona and blow out Illinois and SDSU than beat Arizona and lose to two top 10 teams (Gonzaga and Auburn), as Arizona did.
 

cyclone101

Well-Known Member
Oct 19, 2009
4,565
4,295
113
Dez Moinz
Weighing in on two other topics in this thread: Lewis has now had two REALLY good games in a row. And not good in the sense that he was hot from 3, he played really well on both ends, and played 'above the rim' more than I expected (offensive rebounding and attacking the basket). With these two performances, he's made clear he's not just a 3-pt shooter off the bench, but that he's earned real playing time as the #4 guard.

Also, losing to Arizona sucked, but was a very good thing in the end giving who we had available. I'd much rather lose a close one to Arizona and blow out Illinois and SDSU than beat Arizona and lose to two top 10 teams (Gonzaga and Auburn), as Arizona did.
He's done really well. Making me second guess my thinking that he would end up being the first guy outside of the rotation.
 

CascadeClone

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2009
10,921
14,024
113
This team is #17 in Kenpom with 1/2 it's best players being out!! It's almost exactly where both our sweet 16 teams finished the year

Pump the brakes just a bit.

I agree, having those guys all back is a good thing. But I have some concerns about on-court chemistry. Will Shayok and Wigg compete for shots? Will Lard and Jacobsen get in each others' way?

Hopefully it's not a problem, but its something to be aware of as a possibility.
 

Sigmapolis

Minister of Economy
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Aug 10, 2011
26,965
41,694
113
Waukee
Weighing in on two other topics in this thread: Lewis has now had two REALLY good games in a row. And not good in the sense that he was hot from 3, he played really well on both ends, and played 'above the rim' more than I expected (offensive rebounding and attacking the basket). With these two performances, he's made clear he's not just a 3-pt shooter off the bench, but that he's earned real playing time as the #4 guard.

Also, losing to Arizona sucked, but was a very good thing in the end giving who we had available. I'd much rather lose a close one to Arizona and blow out Illinois and SDSU than beat Arizona and lose to two top 10 teams (Gonzaga and Auburn), as Arizona did.

He's done really well. Making me second guess my thinking that he would end up being the first guy outside of the rotation.

Relevant and recent efficiency statistics for T-Lew...

Freshman Season
ORTG = 88.3
DRTG = 110.6

Sophomore Season (so far)
ORTG = 104.5
DRTG = 100.0

San Diego State
ORTG = 194
DRTG = 104

Nebraska-Omaha
ORTG = 147
DRTG = 77

Compared to Zoran Talley last season...

Junior Season (last year)
ORTG = 110.8
DRTG = 101.1