2018-2019 computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
ORTG = estimated points you "contribute" per 100 possessions (times five)
DRTG = estimated points they score on you per 100 possessions (times five)
So yes, you want as much ORTG as possible and want a low DRTG.
The more and more the spread of ORTG > DRTG, the better player you are.
For further reference, Wigginton was only 101 ORTG last year. Lard and NWB were 113.4, Young was 112, and DJ 110.
THT is 109.5 ORTG this year. Haliburton 139.1, Jacobson 138.6, NWB 122.4, Shayok 115.8.
Shayok is the guy he would spell the most, he's averaging 30.3 minutes per game but I would guess a lot of that is foul trouble or sitting at the end of blowouts. Seems like Shayok was nearly always on the floor when he could possibly be with the 8 man roster.
Haha, at playing like an experienced player anyways.Wow. This Wigginton guy must suck.
He definitely had less of a positive impact on winning than you need from your highest usage guy. A year can change a lot, I hope.
That game last night was a classic example of why computer rankings are so tough early in the season. From a pure offensive and defensive efficiency, a 81-59 score doesn't look nearly as impressive as a 61-39 score. But it's just tough for a higher tempo team to not let off the gas when up by 20.
KenPom up to 16th.
17th in AdjO and 18th in AdjD.
May be the best defensive team we've had in awhile.
17th in AdjO and 18th in AdjD.
May be the best defensive team we've had in awhile.
Also up to #2 in the conference according to Barttovik...
...with nice balance on offense and defense.
TTU has the #1 defensive efficiency in the country, though.
Seeing WVU be better at offense than at defense is weird.
What do you know -- Kansas State was overrated.
...with nice balance on offense and defense.
TTU has the #1 defensive efficiency in the country, though.
Seeing WVU be better at offense than at defense is weird.
What do you know -- Kansas State was overrated.
One other thing that I thought to add...
It is basketball hate week!
Just using Barttovik as a benchmark...
-- Projected 78-77 game score with a spread of 3/10 of a point our way
-- 51% win expectation
-- Still have Iowa as the #44 team in the country (about in the range of a bubble team), so this is going to be a good OOC road win come March selections)
Drilling down a little more...
-- Iowa and Iowa State's offenses are pretty comparable to each other at around 20-25th in the country, though Iowa State has the much better defense
-- Looking through the numbers, it is hard to see what Iowa does better until the FT Rate... Iowa is an elite team in drawing fouls, a very good team towards not fouling on defense (lol zone), and pretty good at defending the three point line
-- Iowa State does basically everything else better
-- I hate to say it, but knowing that, this game could come down to officiating very easily, depending on how the zebras decide to call the contest
-- Iowa State is a mediocre, at best, team at avoiding fouls on defense... Our newfound depth helps with that, but Iowa shoots 68% from the line... They live for fouls
-- We would be favored by about four on a neutral court
-- I know we like to make fun of it as a catacomb, but Carver Hawkeye is probably worth at least a few points when officiating is going to matter so much
I have a feeling this one is going to be a nail-biter.
This is one of the big remaining swing games on our schedule. Our record is currently projected at 22-9 (11-7), and this could push it up to the 23-8 range instead. The last team in ISU history to lose only eight games in a season was the Kane-Ejim-Niang three-headed monster.
Zoran or Cameron really coming into his own and giving us better minutes than Conditt or Griffin (and sorry to the freshmen, but they have been replacement level players so far in their young careers) do off the bench could tip the difference.
It is basketball hate week!
Just using Barttovik as a benchmark...
-- Projected 78-77 game score with a spread of 3/10 of a point our way
-- 51% win expectation
-- Still have Iowa as the #44 team in the country (about in the range of a bubble team), so this is going to be a good OOC road win come March selections)
Drilling down a little more...
-- Iowa and Iowa State's offenses are pretty comparable to each other at around 20-25th in the country, though Iowa State has the much better defense
-- Looking through the numbers, it is hard to see what Iowa does better until the FT Rate... Iowa is an elite team in drawing fouls, a very good team towards not fouling on defense (lol zone), and pretty good at defending the three point line
-- Iowa State does basically everything else better
-- I hate to say it, but knowing that, this game could come down to officiating very easily, depending on how the zebras decide to call the contest
-- Iowa State is a mediocre, at best, team at avoiding fouls on defense... Our newfound depth helps with that, but Iowa shoots 68% from the line... They live for fouls
-- We would be favored by about four on a neutral court
-- I know we like to make fun of it as a catacomb, but Carver Hawkeye is probably worth at least a few points when officiating is going to matter so much
I have a feeling this one is going to be a nail-biter.
This is one of the big remaining swing games on our schedule. Our record is currently projected at 22-9 (11-7), and this could push it up to the 23-8 range instead. The last team in ISU history to lose only eight games in a season was the Kane-Ejim-Niang three-headed monster.
Zoran or Cameron really coming into his own and giving us better minutes than Conditt or Griffin (and sorry to the freshmen, but they have been replacement level players so far in their young careers) do off the bench could tip the difference.
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When does he remove recruiting from the formula? Fred's teams got penalized early when he first added recruiting because the transfers weren't counted. Did he ever change to include transfers? Unlike some of Fred's teams this team would get the early boost from freshman recruit ranking, transfers or any combination of the two.
I thought it was after ten games that it is all data from this season and nothing "historical." I believe he now includes transfers coming into the roster.
"As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January."
Well, that did not help, but I would not say it was devastating...
We fell from #12 to #16 on Barttovik, too.
Get the next three bunnies and gird our loins for the Big 12.
We fell from #12 to #16 on Barttovik, too.
Get the next three bunnies and gird our loins for the Big 12.
NET rankings thru Dec. 8.
Iowa State has dropped to 34th. Was 30th as of Dec. 7, Top 20 prior to Iowa loss.
Iowa is 43rd, I think that's around the same it was before CyHawk game.
Still too early to put any stock in the strict ranking numbers.
Iowa State has dropped to 34th. Was 30th as of Dec. 7, Top 20 prior to Iowa loss.
Iowa is 43rd, I think that's around the same it was before CyHawk game.
Still too early to put any stock in the strict ranking numbers.
There is not much movement after last night.
Defeating Southern "as we should" by 30+ does not move the needle much.
I still think we are in a pretty good spot.
Defeating Southern "as we should" by 30+ does not move the needle much.
I still think we are in a pretty good spot.
