2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[ZuriCyclone]

Big 12 Will See Huge Turnover in Referees, the White Hats in Charge for Football this Fall

STILLWATER -- Mike Defee has been putting on the same uniform in college football for over 20-years and 11 of those in the Big 12 Conference. Defee, known for

www.si.com

Wow, Interesting. Knew something was different. Hope cyclonefanatic does a podcast around this issue of change in personnel and the way it has affected the game.

 

[theshadow]

Used to be you knew exactly how the game was going to be called based on the amount of drawl in the ref's voice.

 

[VeloClone]

Big 12 Will See Huge Turnover in Referees, the White Hats in Charge for Football this Fall

STILLWATER -- Mike Defee has been putting on the same uniform in college football for over 20-years and 11 of those in the Big 12 Conference. Defee, known for

www.si.com

With those two gone I wonder who took over the "Big 12 Refs" twitter feed...

 

[SCarolinaCy]

WHERE are we now?

 

[Spanky]

WHERE are we now?

 

[Cyforce]

Pokes putting a third loss on Texas next week would be huge for our chances.

 

[CoachHines3]

paging @Dale

would be curious to see numbers with an OSU win/loss against Texas this week.

I also believe KSU could drop one to a sneaky WVU coming off an embarrassing loss.

 

[surly]

I also believe KSU could drop one to a sneaky WVU coming off an embarrassing loss.

Nothing sneaky about it as WVU is favored over K-State by 3.5 points.

 

[CoachHines3]

Nothing sneaky about it as WVU is favored over K-State by 3.5 points.

Good point, didn't even seen the line

 

[Dale]

After this weekend's games:

Kansas St.: 53.3% (31.8% 1st, 21.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 52.4% (31.9% 1st, 20.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 36.4% (15.5% 1st, 20.9% 2nd)
Texas: 23.4% (10.4% 1st, 13.0% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 21.5% (6.6% 1st, 14.9% 2nd)
Baylor: 6.4% (2.1% 1st, 4.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 5.6% (1.5% 1st, 4.0% 2nd)
TCU: 0.8% (0.1% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: zippo

Most likely championship games:
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 20.8%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 14.4%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 12.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 9.4%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 8.2%
Kansas St./Texas: 6.8%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 4.7%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 3.8%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.7%

ISU record chances:
3-7: 1.0%
4-6: 8.7%
5-5: 26.4%
6-4: 36.5%
7-3: 22.4%
8-2: 5.1%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.5%
6-4: 29.5%
7-3: 91.0%
8-2: 100.0%

 

[Dale]

Who to cheer for in this weekend's games and how they would change ISU's odds:

Iowa St. over Kansas: 21.2% (19.7% with an ISU loss to 40.9% with a win)
West Virginia over Kansas St.: 4.4% (34.6% to 39.0%)
TCU over Baylor: 1.8% (36.2% to 38.0%)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma: 1.6% (35.7% to 37.3%)
Texas over Oklahoma St.: 1.6% (35.9% to 37.5%)

Most important game in the rest of the season for the Cyclones is, no surprise, ISU/KSU — 13.1% with a loss to 55.9% with a win.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Who to cheer for in this weekend's games and how they would change ISU's odds:

Iowa St. over Kansas: 21.2% (19.7% with an ISU loss to 40.9% with a win)
West Virginia over Kansas St.: 4.4% (34.6% to 39.0%)
TCU over Baylor: 1.8% (36.2% to 38.0%)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma: 1.6% (35.7% to 37.3%)
Texas over Oklahoma St.: 1.6% (35.9% to 37.5%)

Most important game in the rest of the season for the Cyclones is, no surprise, ISU/KSU — 13.1% with a loss to 55.9% with a win.

I am not sure we can catch OSU, for that to happen, we have win out, and OSU has to lose twice. We are better off it OSU beats UT this weekend, giving them their 3rd conference loss, eliminating them from the championship game unless they win out.
The best case for ISU to get to the championship game is for us and OSU to both win out. That would give OU, UT and KSU at least 3 loses each, or have OU beat OSU and we win out.
We have the tie breaker to OU, so if we are tied with the same conference record we go. Plus it would be nice to see OU and UT with 3 loses in the conference.

 

[surly]

I hope the Pokes boat-race Texas this weekend. Get the Horns out of the conversation. oSu would then have to beat K-State and OU, both away games where they have struggled in the past.

 

[psychlones]

Texas winning at Okie State really hurt, from what I can see when I run through the scenarios manually. There's a lot to play out still, obviously, but it seems like it made winning at Texas a lot more important for our chances of getting to the championship game.

It makes me sick to my stomach that now there is a legitimate (and even likely?) scenario where the championship game ends up being Oklahoma vs. Texas. Puke.

 

[JM4CY]

Texas winning at Okie State really hurt, from what I can see when I run through the scenarios manually. There's a lot to play out still, obviously, but it seems like it made winning at Texas a lot more important for our chances of getting to the championship game.

It makes me sick to my stomach that now there is a legitimate (and even likely?) scenario where the championship game ends up being Oklahoma vs. Texas. Puke.

I’m not worried. Texas has a lot of bed sh*tting left to do.

 

[Thomasrickj]

Texas winning at Okie State really hurt, from what I can see when I run through the scenarios manually. There's a lot to play out still, obviously, but it seems like it made winning at Texas a lot more important for our chances of getting to the championship game.

It makes me sick to my stomach that now there is a legitimate (and even likely?) scenario where the championship game ends up being Oklahoma vs. Texas. Puke.

It sucks, but I’m sure most of us figured if we want to have a surefire shot at the conference then we would need to win 2 out of 3 between Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Texas. Just take care of Texas and the rest will work itself out.

 

[Rogue52]

A lot of football left to be played. No one is winning out except for the possibility of OU and if any of the one loss teams do win out, then they won their way in.

 

[BCClone]

I just want us to beat baylor and then have two weeks to work on Kstate. Get through those two and a lot of it will start to clean itself up.

 

[JM4CY]

Texas still has us, WV and Kstate left. From what I’ve seen of that team, there’s definitely another loss for the horns in there somewhere

 

[Dale]

We have a new favorite! (And a mess of teams in pretty good position.)

Odds of getting to the Big 12 Championship:
Iowa St.: 47.0% (27.3% 1st, 19.6% 2nd)
Texas: 35.4% (19.0% 1st, 16.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 35.2% (14.5% 1st, 20.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 33.7% (16.8% 1st, 16.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 33.2% (17.3% 1st, 15.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 11.6% (4.2% 1st, 7.3% 2nd)
TCU: 2.5% (0.4% 1st, 2.1% 2nd)
Baylor: 1.5% (0.4% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
Kansas and Texas Tech: nope

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.1%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 11.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 11.0%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 9.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 8.8%
Iowa St./Texas: 7.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 7.6%
Kansas St./Texas: 5.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 3.4%

ISU record chances:
4-6: 4.2%
5-5: 21.0%
6-4: 38.1%
7-3: 29.1%
8-2: 7.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.1%
6-4: 32.6%
7-3: 92.6%
8-2: 100.0%