2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[CRCySpy]

I just checked out MRed standings generator, and if you just go by who is favored in conference games the rest of the way. ISU, OSU, and OU would all finish tied at 7-2. KSU and Texas would finish tied for fourth at 6-3.

I believe in that scenario all three teams would still be tied after the first two tiebreakers are used. Leaving it up to tiebreaker number 3, which is scoring differential between the tied teams. OU and OSU have yet to play, but Iowa State is plus 4 right now after playing both OU and OSU. Plus 4 is a pretty good spot, because let's just say OU beats OSU by 3. OSU would have a differential of 0 and OU would be -4. In that case OU would be eliminated. ISU/OSU would play in the CCG.

Crazy if it came to that.

 

[tyler24]

Here's the problem for Texas. It's easy to show up when you want to show up. It's why the best teams always get everyone's best shot because everyone wants to be the "one" to take down the top dog. Texas has to learn to want to show up for every moment of every game. That culture will not come with Herman.

 

[BCClone]

I just checked out MRed standings generator, and if you just go by who is favored in conference games the rest of the way. ISU, OSU, and OU would all finish tied at 7-2. KSU and Texas would finish tied for fourth at 6-3.

I believe in that scenario all three teams would still be tied after the first two tiebreakers are used. Leaving it up to tiebreaker number 3, which is scoring differential between the tied teams. OU and OSU have yet to play, but Iowa State is plus 4 right now after playing both OU and OSU. Plus 4 is a pretty good spot, because let's just say OU beats OSU by 3. OSU would have a differential of 0 and OU would be -4. In that case OU would be eliminated. ISU/OSU would play in the CCG.

Crazy if it came to that.

Tells you how big that touchdown at the end of the Oklahoma State game was possibly

 

[KennyPratt42]

@Dale Can you run the scenario where we win the three home games and lose at Texas (and if you have time the other three 3-1 finish scenarios as well)?

 

[dualthreat]

Here's the problem for Texas. It's easy to show up when you want to show up. It's why the best teams always get everyone's best shot because everyone wants to be the "one" to take down the top dog. Texas has to learn to want to show up for every moment of every game. That culture will not come with Herman.

I agree and I think Texas will continue to find themselves in 1 score games probably every game from here on out. They won’t win out

 

[AuH2O]

It was 94 something before Texas beat Ok St so didn’t drop that much...only thing I can come up with is there are still a lot of games to be played

Guess I just don’t see it. It’s saying essentially that if UT beats ISU that UT is almost a lock to lose at least one vs WVU, KSU and KU.

I guess I understand the difficulty in predicting UT. They are basically two plays either way from being 6-0 or 2-4.

 

[Dale]

@Dale Can you run the scenario where we win the three home games and lose at Texas (and if you have time the other three 3-1 finish scenarios as well)?

Can do:

7-3, losing to Texas: 88.0%
7-3, losing to Kansas State: 94.5%
7-3, losing to West Virginia: 97.4%
7-3, losing to Baylor: 100.0%

 

[dualthreat]

Can do:

7-3, losing to Texas: 88.0%
7-3, losing to Kansas State: 94.5%
7-3, losing to West Virginia: 97.4%
7-3, losing to Baylor: 100.0%

wow those are some good looking probabilities

 

[Ozclone]

I just checked out MRed standings generator, and if you just go by who is favored in conference games the rest of the way. ISU, OSU, and OU would all finish tied at 7-2. KSU and Texas would finish tied for fourth at 6-3.

I believe in that scenario all three teams would still be tied after the first two tiebreakers are used. Leaving it up to tiebreaker number 3, which is scoring differential between the tied teams. OU and OSU have yet to play, but Iowa State is plus 4 right now after playing both OU and OSU. Plus 4 is a pretty good spot, because let's just say OU beats OSU by 3. OSU would have a differential of 0 and OU would be -4. In that case OU would be eliminated. ISU/OSU would play in the CCG.

Crazy if it came to that.

I have no idea how it works, but if that is how the scoring differential is calculated, then ISU will be ahead of at least one of the other two teams. That is a zero sum approach so if ISU is positive then one of the teams has to be negative.

 

[Dale]

Guess I just don’t see it. It’s saying essentially that if UT beats ISU that UT is almost a lock to lose at least one vs WVU, KSU and KU.

Not a near-lock, but Massey gives a 2-in-3 chance that Texas loses one of those three games, despite being favored in all of them.

 

[theshadow]

I just checked out MRed standings generator, and if you just go by who is favored in conference games the rest of the way. ISU, OSU, and OU would all finish tied at 7-2. KSU and Texas would finish tied for fourth at 6-3.

I believe in that scenario all three teams would still be tied after the first two tiebreakers are used.

The KSU/UT tie gets broken before they go down the list of comparing opponents, so that result is still a factor.

 

[cyclonepower]

Not a near-lock, but Massey gives a 2-in-3 chance that Texas loses one of those three games, despite being favored in all of them.

Which is crazy because they will probably be dbl digit favorites in all 3 games

 

[StLouisClone]

I have no idea how it works, but if that is how the scoring differential is calculated, then ISU will be ahead of at least one of the other two teams. That is a zero sum approach so if ISU is positive then one of the teams has to be negative.

Yes.

 

[jctisu]

In general here's what we cheer for:

1) ISU wins out (obviously)
2) OU, OSU and UT to keep taking losses (especially OSU and UT)

 

[Sigmapolis]

@Dale

What are our odds under these three cases...

W KSU, L Texas
L KSU, W Texas
L and L

 

[Cycsk]

Statistics, shmatistics! Just booked my hotel in Arlington.

 

[surly]

It feels like the championship game will be between your Clones and OU.

oSu should boat-race K-State tomorrow if the Cats don't get healthy quick. But then the Pokes have to beat OU in Norman - unlikely.

And Texas will have to corral a hive of bees when WVU visits and then finish in winter at Manhattan. They won't win both.

 

[TheJackWePack5]

It feels like the championship game will be between your Clones and OU.

oSu should boat-race K-State tomorrow if the Cats don't get healthy quick. But then the Pokes have to beat OU in Norman - unlikely.

And Texas will have to corral a hive of bees when WVU visits and then finish in winter at Manhattan. They won't win both.

You are correct. OU owns OSU/Gundy.

Texas wins both.

KSU goes 0-3 in their remaining big games, and I’ll agree it’s in part because of injury.

 

[psychlone99]

Who do we want in the OSU at KSU game?

 

[83cy]

Don't know what this means but during the TX vs WVU game it was noted ISU has a 14.8% chance to win the conference. Does that sound right?