2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
If we assume the following:
- We lose only 1 more game
- OSU loses to Oklahoma (seems pretty likely)
It looks like we should cheer for KSU to beat OSU. The OU game would knock OSU out with 3 losses. If that happens, it actually doesn't seem to matter which remaining game we lose, we have a pretty good shot.
If we lose to either UT or KSU, we likely rematch them in the championship game. If we lose to WVU, we'd play OU.
- We lose only 1 more game
- OSU loses to Oklahoma (seems pretty likely)
It looks like we should cheer for KSU to beat OSU. The OU game would knock OSU out with 3 losses. If that happens, it actually doesn't seem to matter which remaining game we lose, we have a pretty good shot.
If we lose to either UT or KSU, we likely rematch them in the championship game. If we lose to WVU, we'd play OU.
If I'm doing it right, we can lose to either ksu or texas, but that team has to lose when ksu and texas play each other the final week.
What happens if osu isu and ou end up with 7 wins? 3 way time for 1st but osu doesn't have all 9 games in.
What happens if osu isu and ou end up with 7 wins? 3 way time for 1st but osu doesn't have all 9 games in.
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All I want is for us to win out and NOT play OU in the championship game. I think we were lucky to play them early and want no part of them hitting their stride.
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Cyclones now north of 50/50 to make the championship game:
Iowa St.: 54.1% (33.3% 1st, 20.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 42.7% (16.5% 1st, 26.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 41.3% (21.1% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Texas: 40.1% (21.7% 1st, 18.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 17.0% (6.6% 1st, 10.4% 2nd)
West Virginia: 2.5% (0.6% 1st, 1.9% 2nd)
TCU: 2.3% (0.1% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Baylor, TT, Kansas: c'mon
Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 22.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 17.1%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 15.4%
Oklahoma/Texas: 12.9%
Iowa St./Texas: 8.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 4.9%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 4.5%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 2.5%
ISU record chances:
5-5: 9.5%
6-4: 35.7%
7-3: 41.1%
8-2: 13.7%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.0%
6-4: 17.9%
7-3: 82.8%
8-2: 100.0%
Iowa St.: 54.1% (33.3% 1st, 20.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 42.7% (16.5% 1st, 26.1% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 41.3% (21.1% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Texas: 40.1% (21.7% 1st, 18.4% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 17.0% (6.6% 1st, 10.4% 2nd)
West Virginia: 2.5% (0.6% 1st, 1.9% 2nd)
TCU: 2.3% (0.1% 1st, 2.2% 2nd)
Baylor, TT, Kansas: c'mon
Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 22.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 17.1%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 15.4%
Oklahoma/Texas: 12.9%
Iowa St./Texas: 8.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 4.9%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 4.5%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 2.5%
ISU record chances:
5-5: 9.5%
6-4: 35.7%
7-3: 41.1%
8-2: 13.7%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.0%
6-4: 17.9%
7-3: 82.8%
8-2: 100.0%
Most important games left for Iowa State:
Iowa St. over Texas: 54.7% (33.9% with a ISU loss to 88.6% with a win)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 40.1% (29.7% to 69.8%)
Iowa St. over West Virginia: 30.5% (35.7% to 66.2%)
TCU over Oklahoma St.: 14.1% (47.3% to 61.4%)
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 10.3% (49.5% to 59.8%)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma St.: 9.7% (51.9% to 61.6%)
Kansas St. over Texas: 9.1% (50.6% to 59.7%)
Kansas over Texas: 8.5% (53.3% to 61.8%)
Baylor over Oklahoma: 6.4% (52.4% to 58.8%)
Oklahoma over Oklahoma St.: 5.3% (50.4% to 55.7%)
TCU over West Virginia: 5.2% (51.9% to 57.1%)
Iowa St. over Texas: 54.7% (33.9% with a ISU loss to 88.6% with a win)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 40.1% (29.7% to 69.8%)
Iowa St. over West Virginia: 30.5% (35.7% to 66.2%)
TCU over Oklahoma St.: 14.1% (47.3% to 61.4%)
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 10.3% (49.5% to 59.8%)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma St.: 9.7% (51.9% to 61.6%)
Kansas St. over Texas: 9.1% (50.6% to 59.7%)
Kansas over Texas: 8.5% (53.3% to 61.8%)
Baylor over Oklahoma: 6.4% (52.4% to 58.8%)
Oklahoma over Oklahoma St.: 5.3% (50.4% to 55.7%)
TCU over West Virginia: 5.2% (51.9% to 57.1%)
Best case scenario, ISU and OSU win out and ISU wins the rematch.
Looks like if ISU wins its next two, we can probably afford to lose the last game against West Virginia. It's not a guarantee yet but it's close.
Looks like if ISU wins its next two, we can probably afford to lose the last game against West Virginia. It's not a guarantee yet but it's close.
Running the numbers: If Iowa State beats KSU and Texas but loses to West Virginia, they have a 99.6% chance to make it to the Big 12 Championship. Not too certain where that 0.4% comes from -- maybe a three-way tie where West Virginia finishes pretty high up the standings (since that'd be the second tiebreaker)?
One I see is if ISU, OU, and OSU are 7-2 and WVU, Texas, and K-State are 5-4. In that scenario:
Iowa State only loses to West Virginia the rest of the way.
Oklahoma wins out.
Oklahoma State only loses to Oklahoma.
West Virginia only loses to Oklahoma.
Texas loses to Iowa State and Kansas State.
Kansas State loses to Iowa State and Baylor but beats Texas.
In that case it comes down to scoring differential with ISU and the Oklahoma schools.
Not sure if there are other scenarios or if other games could affect it.
If TCU beats West Virginia, it might make ISU a lock for the championship game if we beat K-State and Texas, but I'm not sure.
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Oklahoma, but it's not a huge impact: It gives ISU a 5.3% bump over OSU winning (50.4% to 55.7%). A bigger jump for the Cyclones would be either of those teams — or Texas — losing to anyone else.
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