2024-25 ISU FB Early Predictions and Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter Jer
- Start date
A. There are a plenty of people complaining about the new offensive coordinator. However, given that he is someone from within the system, who isn’t changing terminology, worked closely with the last two (or arguably three) OC’s, and knows the players in and out, it’s not the usual “new OC” situation.
B. Being mildly optimistic is not “hype”. This team isn’t even picked in the top five in the conference.
C. I’m curious what you think the “weaknesses” in the linebacking corps are. Sure, last year there was a lot of inexperience, both in terms of actual playing experience, and time in the program.
Five players now have game experience. Two more seasoned players are back from injury. Two more freshmen are flashng.
Caleb Bacon has the advantage of being on scholarship now. Zach Lovett, Kooper Ebel and Jack Sadowsky have the benefit of a full offseason of S&C to refine themselves, and they and Cael Brezina all have the benefits of Spring ball.
Plus, Ellis and Imming are back from injury.
Weaknesses in ‘23 aren’t necessarily weaknesses in ‘24.
Oh yeah—and we were second in the conference in total defense even with those weaknesses.
Honestly? If I were going to be “worried” about any position on defense, it would probably be corner. One solid starter, and two other guys are of all the returnees. Everyone else is shiny and new. But no one talks about that position at all.
I think any team in the Big 12 will be vanquished in the playoffs. Just getting to the playoffs would be a huge accomplishment for anyone in the conference. I think it is a very competitive conference but doesn't have a team with any shot of running the table and making any noise in the playoffs. Just look at the Big 12 and count all their NC's in the last 50 years. It's a very competitive conference but doesn't have a single elite football program. I guess CU did win one, but they have no chance with that coach.
I think you're setting the bar too low and I don't think it's crazy for big12 to make noise and play for a championship in a playoff format.
The top 4 conf. champs are in automatically and get a bye in the first round. So they will play a team with a lower seed in the quarter finals. Depending on matchups* it could be Big12 champ playing something like the #3 BIG or #2 ACC in some years and that would be a push most years maybe +/- 7 pts odds. If big12 wins the round of 8 games then you're in the final 4 and just one upset and you're in the championship game. Probably won't crown a champion in the next 20 years, but the B10 hasn't had a BB champ in 25 years either - but i think big12 will make the final 4 teams around 1/2 the time.
* Of course - alot of this comes down to the committee giving somewhat fair seeding and not always pairing big12 #1 against #2 SEC every year. Conspiracy and media BS aside - bad/good seeding is possible even when the seeding is done fairly - so alot of it will come to luck with the pairings - just like march madness.
The problem is that the big 12 champ will always be either the 3rd or 4th seed. With that first matchup, more likely than not, playing the SEC/Big10 runner up at the 5/6 seed. Impossible to beat? No, but you’re likely playing one of the best teams in the country in your first game at a neutral site probably in the south. It’s all set up to favor the P2.
Then the depth of talent rears its head. We have seen just last year how injuries cost us games against not elite teams. CW has mentioned he has been before how much of a physical toll it takes after playing Texas/OU. Winning 3-4 games in a month against only elite talent wears on a team.
I think some years big12 will get the 3rd seed overall - or, potentially 2 seed if they're undefeated. and then will end playing the #3 B10 or #2 ACC with how the seeding will shake out. And of course, an upset can happen in the first rounds too.
But, even when we're paired with #2 B10 then the second part of your comment is still a big advantage to big12 champ. The wear and tear of a physical game in the first round - even for top teams with more depth will take it's toll - and the Big12 champ will rest and recover and be healthier.
I think everyone knows that the deck is stacked against all the non P2 teams at this point but I don't think it's all doom and gloom. Maybe I'm just naive and stubbornly optimistic but I do think either the big12 or ACC champ will make it to the final4 round pretty much every year.
I mean I don't know if experience was the downside with the linebacker corps, it just wasn't nearly athletic enough. Corner will be serviceable we got a good transfer and the returning players are quite good. Especially if we are still playing three safeties alot I think we'll have enough talent there, bar injuries. Caleb Bacon I love to bits but he's not a sideline-to-sideline LB he is a glorified DE. None of the other linebackers were notable at all to think they're going to pop significantly and nothing from this offseason has indicated there is a significant improvement.
Unless the O-line has taken a big step forward this team will go 7-5 again with a loss to Iowa
You don’t know that. Not even close.
Just like every other game of any kind I’ve ever met, college football has an unwritten “**** happens” rule.
Matter of fact, that one year we were the “**** happens”. It was glorious.
Since 2014 when the CFP started there has been only 1 time that a Big 12 team finished the regular season ranked either #1 or #2. Oklahoma in 2017 (we know who they lost to
).So, yes, **** does, can, and will happen but historic results over the past 10 years says otherwise. Now with the realignment that is only going to get harder for any Big 12 team.
You don't have to be elite to win a playoff game. IMO you are discrediting several Big 12 teams that are capable of lining up and beating a lot of teams. I refuse to get caught up in the "It's the B1G and SEC" line of thinking.
You’re making that evaluation on invalid, obsolete data.Since 2014 when the CFP started there has been only 1 time that a Big 12 team finished the regular season ranked either #1 or #2. Oklahoma in 2017 (we know who they lost to
So, yes, **** does, can, and will happen but historic results over the past 10 years says otherwise. Now with the realignment that is only going to get harder for any Big 12 team.
In short, it’s now become tougher for B1G and $EC teams to put together undefeated seasons, while those same obstacles are reduced for the Big XII.
There’s no criteria of being undefeated to be a conference champion so I’m not sure why that’s even being brought up.
How is that invalid data when it’s still choosing the top 4 seeds with a subjective committee that has evidence of making decisions based on brand, prestige, and conference for the past 10 years?
Remember Ohio state over TCU and Baylor? Alabama who didn’t even win it’s conference or division in 2017? Florida state last year?
What’s going to change? Unless someone goes 13-0 and everyone in the P2 has 2-3 losses maybe I could see it sure but they’ll just argue SoS.
I wish I had the optimism most have on this board and I truly hope I’m wrong.
I always thought I was on the high end of cynical about the "committee" and their BS. But even I was floored when they fist-f***ed Florida State like they did.
I have ZERO trust in that committee to do anything except put 4 each SEC/B1G every year at a MINIMUM. And you can about guarantee the matchups will be in such a way to put the actually good SEC teams up against the Big12/ACC/G5 and save the schedule tigers for B1G opponents.
People are way to high on Garrett Greene. Good athlete and makes plays with his legs, but his upside is limited by inaccuracy. Only 53% last year. WVU seems to be getting a lot of love, perhaps I'm just wrong in not buying it.
Seems like there was very little research put into this list. FWIW, Retzlaff at BYU most likely wont even be the starter. And IMO Rising, Finn, and Morton are not high enough, and Greene, Smith, and Avery Johnson are ranked too high
Rocco should be above KJ Jefferson.
Could not disagree more about Bacon. He's very athletic and the type of LB we've been missing since Rose. That said, he's playing in the middle, right? He's going to be used a lot like Rose, rushing from all over the place.
Mandel & Dochterman has us projected to play in the Texas Bowl (Houston) vs. Oklahoma.
