4th & Short Analysis

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Notice both under center QB sneaks converted. I forget where I saw it, but the chance that a QB sneak picks up the first down on 4th and 1 yard or less is like 93%

It's an incredibly tough play to defend.

 

[FerShizzle]

It's an incredibly tough play to defend.

Especially now that they allow a back to push on the QBs.

 

[CYEATHAWK]

We can analyze all day long, but on one of those goal line series........#43 was in the slot......with no one on him.

98% or more of HS to college teams have a signal from the QB to just "go" if that presents itself. He walks in for the TD.

At ISU........we are so scripted or not capable of thinking outside the box we bring #43 back behind the line to block before the snap.

Unbelievable!

 

[amishclone]

We also had two 4th & Shorts against non-con opponents, which I also threw out due to an assumed talent difference making a big impact. Both were passes out of the shotgun and converted FWIW.

Are you talking about 8 win Ohio or 9 win SEMO

 

[NWICY]

I wanted to go back and objectively see what we've been doing on 4th downs where the QB sneak was a legitimate options this year. I went through the play-by-play for all 11 games so far this season and looked at every 4th down where the distance to convert was 3 yards or less. There were several 4th Downs with 4 to 6 yards to go that we attempted, but since those are too far for a QB sneak I didn't include them. I threw out everything where we punted or attempted a FG. That left 15 plays on the season. Two of those were penalties, which I threw out:

• Texas: Q1 on our own 30, 4th & 1, Delay of Game - probably did it for field position on a punt, but don't know for sure just from play-by-play
• Texas: Q2 on our own 37, 4th & 2, False Start - obviously intended to go for it

We also had two 4th & Shorts against non-con opponents, which I also threw out due to an assumed talent difference making a big impact. Both were passes out of the shotgun and converted FWIW.

So that left 11 4th & Short plays, in conference, that either converted or failed:

• Baylor, Q1 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• Kansas, Q4 on their 49, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Texas, Q4 on our 33, 4th & 2: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q1 on our 47, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Norton)
• OU, Q4 on their 20, 4th & 3: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q4 on their 3, 4th & 1: Shotgun Pass that Failed
• WVU, Q3 on their 23, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)
• OSU, Q4 on our 25, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Dekkers)
• TTech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Ttech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Failed (Dekkers sack)
• Ttech, Q4 on their 28, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)

I didn't figure there'd be enough samples to say anything about effectiveness, but I ran a Chi-Sq anyway. We never went Under Center and Passed the ball, but when we Passed out of Shotgun we converted 3 of 5 attempts (60%). However when we Rushed, we were 0 for 3 out of Shotgun (0%) and 2 for 3 from Under Center (67%). Even with only 3 samples of each that's enough to say there is a statistically significant difference at the 90% Significance Level.

One other thing that stuck out at me, though I didn't record it, was the number of times we called a timeout on 4th & Short. I'd guess about half the time we went for it and half the time we didn't. But to me that indicates we're not sure what we want to do as the game goes along. We should be thinking about how we'll approach 4th down as we line up on 3rd down, and then depending on the result it's a "simple" go/no-go. If we're calling timeouts a lot on our own 4th down plays, then we're not thinking far enough ahead IMO. Many times we'd call a timeout on 4th down and just end up punting or kicking a FG anyway. That feels like a wasted timeout.

Drop this in a email and show Campbell what he and his staff is doing.

 

[clonehome]

We can analyze all day long, but on one of those goal line series........#43 was in the slot......with no one on him.

98% or more of HS to college teams have a signal from the QB to just "go" if that presents itself. He walks in for the TD.

At ISU........we are so scripted or not capable of thinking outside the box we bring #43 back behind the line to block before the snap.

Unbelievable!

You could link the video clip from the other thread, it’s just astonishing. TT had a guy over Rus but well before Rus went in motion that guy ran down over our left guard, the exact same place we ran on 2nd, 3rd and 4th and 1 from the 2. Incredible, Rus was standing in the slot uncovered for 2 seconds then we mindlessly motion him in and run to the exact spot where TT just overloaded their defense. To not have the presence and preparation to see that and take the gimme touchdown is unforgivable. That’s 4th grade offense right there.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Are you talking about 8 win Ohio or 9 win SEMO

Both. The plays against those guys were passes out of the shotgun that converted, FWIW. Actually both went not just for 1st downs but TDs. One from the Opp15 and one from the Opp33.

 

[SCarolinaCy]

I wanted to go back and objectively see what we've been doing on 4th downs where the QB sneak was a legitimate options this year. I went through the play-by-play for all 11 games so far this season and looked at every 4th down where the distance to convert was 3 yards or less. There were several 4th Downs with 4 to 6 yards to go that we attempted, but since those are too far for a QB sneak I didn't include them. I threw out everything where we punted or attempted a FG. That left 15 plays on the season. Two of those were penalties, which I threw out:

• Texas: Q1 on our own 30, 4th & 1, Delay of Game - probably did it for field position on a punt, but don't know for sure just from play-by-play
• Texas: Q2 on our own 37, 4th & 2, False Start - obviously intended to go for it

We also had two 4th & Shorts against non-con opponents, which I also threw out due to an assumed talent difference making a big impact. Both were passes out of the shotgun and converted FWIW.

So that left 11 4th & Short plays, in conference, that either converted or failed:

• Baylor, Q1 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• Kansas, Q4 on their 49, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Texas, Q4 on our 33, 4th & 2: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q1 on our 47, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Norton)
• OU, Q4 on their 20, 4th & 3: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q4 on their 3, 4th & 1: Shotgun Pass that Failed
• WVU, Q3 on their 23, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)
• OSU, Q4 on our 25, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Dekkers)
• TTech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Ttech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Failed (Dekkers sack)
• Ttech, Q4 on their 28, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)

I didn't figure there'd be enough samples to say anything about effectiveness, but I ran a Chi-Sq anyway. We never went Under Center and Passed the ball, but when we Passed out of Shotgun we converted 3 of 5 attempts (60%). However when we Rushed, we were 0 for 3 out of Shotgun (0%) and 2 for 3 from Under Center (67%). Even with only 3 samples of each that's enough to say there is a statistically significant difference at the 90% Significance Level.

One other thing that stuck out at me, though I didn't record it, was the number of times we called a timeout on 4th & Short. I'd guess about half the time we went for it and half the time we didn't. But to me that indicates we're not sure what we want to do as the game goes along. We should be thinking about how we'll approach 4th down as we line up on 3rd down, and then depending on the result it's a "simple" go/no-go. If we're calling timeouts a lot on our own 4th down plays, then we're not thinking far enough ahead IMO. Many times we'd call a timeout on 4th down and just end up punting or kicking a FG anyway. That feels like a wasted timeout.

CMC has lost total interest in coaching this team.

 

[CYEATHAWK]

You could link the video clip from the other thread, it’s just astonishing. TT had a guy over Rus but well before Rus went in motion that guy ran down over our left guard, the exact same place we ran on 2nd, 3rd and 4th and 1 from the 2. Incredible, Rus was standing in the slot uncovered for 2 seconds then we mindlessly motion him in and run to the exact spot where TT just overloaded their defense. To not have the presence and preparation to see that and take the gimme touchdown is unforgivable. That’s 4th grade offense right there.

I think your last statement just summed up the offense this season.

 

[PSYclone22]

While you noted it near the end, using a timeout to determine whether to to or not is likely more costly than whatever the decision difference. We have to be more decisive, those lost timeouts are problems.

 

[CychiatricWard]

The Texas Tech goal line fiasco this past weekend really showed just how amazingly stubborn Campbell is. To not only fail, but to continue to do it, is just asinine. Absolutely inexcusable play calling and the best part was he was somehow okay with it after the game! I get he has been a great coach for us, but there are some very disturbing trends with him that if he doesn’t figure out soon will see his rear end on the streets.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

We can analyze all day long, but on one of those goal line series........#43 was in the slot......with no one on him.

98% or more of HS to college teams have a signal from the QB to just "go" if that presents itself. He walks in for the TD.

At ISU........we are so scripted or not capable of thinking outside the box we bring #43 back behind the line to block before the snap.

Unbelievable!

I don't think our offense counts player advantages like other systems do. Otherwise that should be an automatic call from Dekkers. I mean it's typically coached as such. That's kind of the point of shifting the players. To get people confused and catch them out of position. It's baffling.

 

[joefrog]

I wanted to go back and objectively see what we've been doing on 4th downs where the QB sneak was a legitimate options this year. I went through the play-by-play for all 11 games so far this season and looked at every 4th down where the distance to convert was 3 yards or less. There were several 4th Downs with 4 to 6 yards to go that we attempted, but since those are too far for a QB sneak I didn't include them. I threw out everything where we punted or attempted a FG. That left 15 plays on the season. Two of those were penalties, which I threw out:

• Texas: Q1 on our own 30, 4th & 1, Delay of Game - probably did it for field position on a punt, but don't know for sure just from play-by-play
• Texas: Q2 on our own 37, 4th & 2, False Start - obviously intended to go for it

We also had two 4th & Shorts against non-con opponents, which I also threw out due to an assumed talent difference making a big impact. Both were passes out of the shotgun and converted FWIW.

So that left 11 4th & Short plays, in conference, that either converted or failed:

• Baylor, Q1 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• Kansas, Q4 on their 49, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Texas, Q4 on our 33, 4th & 2: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q1 on our 47, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Norton)
• OU, Q4 on their 20, 4th & 3: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q4 on their 3, 4th & 1: Shotgun Pass that Failed
• WVU, Q3 on their 23, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)
• OSU, Q4 on our 25, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Dekkers)
• TTech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Ttech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Failed (Dekkers sack)
• Ttech, Q4 on their 28, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)

I didn't figure there'd be enough samples to say anything about effectiveness, but I ran a Chi-Sq anyway. We never went Under Center and Passed the ball, but when we Passed out of Shotgun we converted 3 of 5 attempts (60%). However when we Rushed, we were 0 for 3 out of Shotgun (0%) and 2 for 3 from Under Center (67%). Even with only 3 samples of each that's enough to say there is a statistically significant difference at the 90% Significance Level.

One other thing that stuck out at me, though I didn't record it, was the number of times we called a timeout on 4th & Short. I'd guess about half the time we went for it and half the time we didn't. But to me that indicates we're not sure what we want to do as the game goes along. We should be thinking about how we'll approach 4th down as we line up on 3rd down, and then depending on the result it's a "simple" go/no-go. If we're calling timeouts a lot on our own 4th down plays, then we're not thinking far enough ahead IMO. Many times we'd call a timeout on 4th down and just end up punting or kicking a FG anyway. That feels like a wasted timeout.

It is, indeed, wasting timeouts. Repeatedly. Year after year.

It is as if this staff is completely incapable of abstract thought on the offensive side, or playing 3rd down to set-up 4th.

 

[joefrog]

The Texas Tech goal line fiasco this past weekend really showed just how amazingly stubborn Campbell is. To not only fail, but to continue to do it, is just asinine. Absolutely inexcusable play calling and the best part was he was somehow okay with it after the game! I get he has been a great coach for us, but there are some very disturbing trends with him that if he doesn’t figure out soon will see his rear end on the streets.

He's had 7 years and hasn't figured it out yet.

He just always had an NFL back that could somewhat cover-up the ineptitude.

Sadly, he will not face employment termination for 3 more seasons.

So many of the fanbase are still "all in".

They like this crap.

 

[joefrog]

We ran 2 qb sneaks at the 50-ish yard line against Tech but not at the goal line. makes sense to me

Love your work Tom. Glad you came back to ISU from Indy.

 

[cyputz]

BECOME to predictable…..LMAO

Just get it done fellas

 

[besserheimerphat]

So many of the fanbase are still "all in".

They like this crcrap.

Don't be stupid. Nobody is happy with this. Just because some of us are a little more willing to give Campbell a chance to right the ship does not mean we like this.

 

[CychiatricWard]

Don't be stupid. Nobody is happy with this. Just because some of us are a little more willing to give Campbell a chance to right the ship does not mean we like this.

To be fair, my assesment was just an honest opinion at the moment. Campbell absolutely deserves to get this thing going again and I’m forever and always a cyclone but the trends are troubling 7 years into this thing is all.

 

[joefrog]

Don't be stupid. Nobody is happy with this. Just because some of us are a little more willing to give Campbell a chance to right the ship does not mean we like this.

These are embarrassing errors for D3 and NAIA coaching staffs to be making.

To still see stuff like this, in year 7 at a P5 school?

I'm just astounded.

It is as if they are completely incapable of adjusting to both feedback and reality.

Worse part on Rus being uncovered? Our staff ABSOLUTELY doesn't trust the players to simply audible and improvise there.

I couldn't do stuff like this to my players and sleep at night, let alone cash millions in checks.

 

[joefrog]

To be fair, my assesment was just an honest opinion at the moment. Campbell absolutely deserves to get this thing going again and I’m forever and always a cyclone but the trends are troubling 7 years into this thing is all.

Curious why you trust him to do anything about addressing offensive problems that have been evident all along?

He had all season to make some, and yet not only has he refused, he blames the players for failure.

Execution? What? You set them up to fail!